Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
I'm going to give a contrarian take on Neoclouds like $NBIS and say the theme looks compelling after the valuation crash.
Since there's a reason why Elon's $SPCX is heavily focused on this market full of "guppies" that would die:
He sees how attractive the economics are after selling compute to $GOOGL and Anthropic.
And this is reflected by his actions not words, from SpaceX's recent $40B financing for GPUs procurement.
$AMZN, $MSFT, and even $META also see how profitable the economics are and are accelerating their AI DC buildouts.
I'd argue if a Neocloud has:
- Close relationships with $NVDA + others for allocations
- Existing contracted capacity + permitting
- Well funded counterparties, such as Hyperscalers.
- Attractive economics, such as financing their procurement correctly (not the way $CRWV has with high debt interest unless they refinance).
Then I think they'll do just fine...
However, the bigger worry is more toward newer players starting financing or the permitting process, since barrier to entry has now become extremely high.
For financing, read through on $IREN earnings has shown public Neoclouds can adapt extremely well to tight markets:
As seen with their 90% prepayments for GPU capex on a 5Y deal.
Their older H100 GPUs recontracted at double their previous pricing and 12% higher contracted pricing also point against depreciation fears.
And in the case DC buildouts slow from permitting delays... it heavily favors some over others.
Rosenblatt's recent note for example stated they see little risk with $NBIS primary buildout that was in Missouri, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina.
And there's probably less risk with developers in places like Australia.
Markets have also show this infinite compute arbitrage can't go on forever, hence the reluctance to further finance capex, via things like ATMs.
But ironically, tighter financing and hypothetical restrictive permitting would increase the competitive advantage of established neoclouds.
And create a larger moat against newer DC developers.
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
“The Quran is the word of God!”
“It is written by Muhammad!”
“No!”
“Who wrote it?”
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
THE DOT COM BUBBLE VERSUS THE “AI BUBBLE” VISUALIZED:
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The visualization relies on custom equal-weighted indexes of 10 hand-selected stocks per period, not broad indexes like Nasdaq. Dot-com constituents were chosen retrospectively as top performers (per original post); Nasdaq rose ~6.7x from early 1995 to March 2000 peak.
x.com/lesse_jivermor…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasdaq_Co…
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
More details on the $1.3B+ deal between $ASTS and $FLY:
The stock component will dilute existing shareholders.
Under the licensing agreement, AST SpaceMobile will pay approximately $800M upfront, consisting of $400M in cash and 10M–14M Class A shares.
FIREFLY SIGNS $1.3B+ ROCKET ENGINE DEAL WITH $ASTS
$FLY has signed a 3-year agreement with AST SpaceMobile to supply engines for AST's new heavy-lift rocket.
Under the deal:
Firefly will deliver 36 engines, including 27 Miranda and 9 Vira engines, for AST's first three rockets.
AST will receive a license to manufacture the engines, along with engineering support. Firefly retains ownership of the engine IP.
AST will pay Firefly more than $1.3B in a combination of cash and ASTS shares, with the shares subject to lock-up periods.
For AST, the goal is to gain greater control over its launch schedule. For Firefly, the additional funding will help expand engine testing capacity and accelerate production of its own launch vehicles.
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
BREAKING: The US economy adds +165,000 jobs in October, well above expectations of +64,000.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below expectations of 4.2%.
September's job number was also revised higher by +31,000 jobs.
Expectations for a December rate hike are rising on the news.
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
Everyone’s a long term investor for 2027, 2028, or 2029 onward
Until their portfolio experiences volatility months in. I still think:
- $RKLB could end up the next $SPCX
- $NBIS has the potential to be the next hyperscaler
- $SIVE has moonshot potential to be the next $LITE
- 1-3x P/E memory companies and $AXTI substrate bottlenecks are more durable than markets think
And that it’s stupid to sell single digit fwd P/E AI companies or promising longs.
And rotate that into 5% growth towel resellers at 47x P/E. Or 180x cyber companies, just because they’re going up.
I’ve seen $AMD go from the $3 valley of doom to $400 as people thought it could be the next $INTC / $NVDA.
And been through the Bitcoin $1000 -> $18,000 -> $3000 -> $100,000 cycle.
Not advice on how to position or trade, but anyone on extreme leverage during those times got wiped out.
While the underlying assets sharply recovered later.
I do think AI, Space, and Physical AI are the future.
So, I’m remaining long, and using this time to maximize exposure to the winners
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
$GLXY CEO after pushing back on Texas political uncertainty:
"I see a massive disconnect between where Galaxy trades and what I believe this company is worth.
That’s why I’m buying more stock, starting today."
Good vote of confidence to see colo executives calling out fundamental disconnects amid sector liquidations.
Then putting their own capital behind their statement.
The blue wave has weighed on companies like ours. I get it. But let’s not confuse politics with long-term fundamentals.
Finance is moving onchain and demand for AI is exploding. These are generational shifts that will play out across administrations and market cycles.
We’ve spent years building Galaxy to win in both. That includes Texas, where we delivered Helios Phase I on schedule and 800 MW is already leased under long-term contract. We’ve worked with legislators and local communities there for years, and we’ll keep doing that with the new administration. We share the same goals: reliable power, protected water and strong communities.
I see a massive disconnect between where $GLXY trades and what I believe this company is worth. That’s why I’m buying more stock, starting today.
I’m betting on us, big time.
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
So Elon Musk just reposted this and then quickly undid his repost, in other words he is signaling to you that $125 SpaceX is really a generational entry
Markets hype something for 1-3 days. Then they move on. There won't be an Elon Musk witch hunt or a doomsday scenario for SpaceX. Anyone can extrapolate a politician's negative view on AI to doompost SpaceX, Elon or Tesla. That ain't happening in real life.
The rockets still fly tomorrow.
The compute still runs tomorrow.
Nothing you own changed overnight. Only the price did.
What people feel about SpaceX this week is not what SpaceX is.
Two weeks ago it was a blowout quarter.
A week ago it was the biggest unlock.
Today it is the selloff.
Next week it is Starship Flight 15, NET 12 November.
Same factories the whole time.
The story flips both ways.
A green week does not make the machines better.
A red week does not make them worse.
Today is a good example.
People treat whichever version is loudest like it is the truth.
Then it flips again and they treat that like the truth too.
You will feel it. That part is normal.
The mistake is letting the feeling become the conclusion.
Zoom out. You're early.
$SPCX
Generational moment to buy...
Why? Let me explain, in under 60 seconds, the game on the field for Team Blue:
First, the democrats aren't as radical as the GOP painted them (just like MAGA isn't as bad as Dems painted them)
Second, the Democrats can't win long term if they kill the markets (aka the AI trade) with regulations, taxes and by vilifying the job creators.
It is critical that we support moderates in the Democratic Party like @RahmEmanuel and steer the rest of Team Blue toward being pro-capitalism, AKA pro-jobs and economic growth.
The last thing democrats want to be associated with is tanking people's 401ks and causing layoffs and a recession.
@RepJeffries understands this...
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
Comprehensive list of hedge funds blowing up this week, getting large redemptions, or shutting down PMs:
- Axebrook
- Walleye
- Engineers Gate
- Lone Pine
- Millennium internal pods
- Verition pods
- Samlyn
Letter from Walleye closing internal funds below
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
Could be one of the best buying opportunities in years
The VIX just jumped as much as 70% in a single day and a move that large has only happened 8 times since 1991
What happened to the S&P after the prior 8, on average:
• 1 month later: +3.0% (7 of 8 times positive)
• 3 months later: +7.1% (6 of 8 times positive)
• 6 months later: +10.4% (8 of 8 times positive)
• 1 year later: +14.7% (7 of 8 times positive)
A move this extreme has only happened 8 times before today since 1991. Bookmark this post
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
Just to put today's crash into perspective:
After today's crash, Nvidia, $NVDA, is now trading at a Forward P/E ratio of ~13x.
That's 7 turns below the S&P 500's ~20x Forward P/E and less than one-third of Walmart's ~43x.
Ironically, the name at the forefront of the AI buildout is now one of the "cheapest" stocks in the market.
Truly incredible.
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
🚨 $IREN's >35 GW Pipeline
They FINALLY did it.... I can't believe $IREN finally revealed the size of their massive pipeline.
For years investors were begging management to reveal the size of their power pipeline.
It only took the stock to crash 58% YTD for them to reveal this very relevant piece of info.
But honestly, wow. No other neocloud, or colo provider for that matter, even comes close to 35 GW...
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
Interesting
The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028.
She is going to pass laws that ensure that all *newly* permitted datacenters going forward for delivery in 2028/2029 will pay taxes, commit to no increase in power prices for consumers, don’t impact water availability for people, be constructed with union labor and give “Texans a seat at the table.”
Sounds reasonable. She doesn’t want to lose a lot of good blue collar jobs and property taxes for small towns in rural Texas.
Datacenter commentary starts at 6:30 in this interview.
Also attaching her official campaign position from her website in the next post.
Sidenote: After watching a bunch of her speeches and interviews, I do think she is a political talent and probably has a future in national politics.
youtu.be/D-T6H3b8ZeE?is=mEWu…
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
🚨 $IREN: $22m / MW on a 5-year contract including 90% prepayment of GPU capex.
This is MASSIVE, wow... the demand for compute is unreal.
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
Last week, a short seller, @CulperResearch, published a report arguing that @cerebras wafers wear out after about two years, and based on that premise the report suggested that the economics of our business are fundamentally challenged.
That number is wrong, and given that the basis of the entire report is built upon that assumption, all of the assertions that follow are also wrong.
We do agree that the question of how long our systems last is a fair question, so we want to address the topic plainly.
If you have a few minutes, I would encourage you to click on the link below, which will provide you with a better understanding of the pioneering work done by our engineering team over the past decade to ensure that the operating lifetime of our solutions is many, many years.
Link Here: cerebras.ai/blog/what-it-too…
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
DOJ LAUNCHES SUPER INTELLIGENCE TASK FORCE ⬇️
@POTUS Trump has made clear that “America stands at the forefront of a new technological revolution in intelligence,” and the Department will be a leader in safeguarding against malicious SI actors.
“The SI Task Force at the Department of Justice will facilitate our partnership with SI Force Chair Jay Clayton as we ensure critical SI technologies serve the American people and are not manipulated by bad actors at home or abroad. The Department of Justice will continue identifying and prosecuting individuals whose use of SI violates the law, including by maliciously targeting American taxpayers, critical U.S. infrastructure, or other aspects of our national security.” -@AGToddBlanche
Read more about the DOJ-SITF here: justice.gov/opa/pr/departmen…
ALT DOJ LAUNCHES SUPER INTELLIGENCE TASK FORCE
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
This is the most reliable signal in market history:
Simply wait for everyone to panic.
Then buy.
Every time $VIX spikes, people panic & shift bearish, but meanwhile big money is actually buying.
- $VIX $25-$30 ~ Buy stocks
- $VIX $45+ ~ Buy even more stocks
Then finally sell stocks when $VIX is back under $14.
& repeat the cycled process, time after time!
Chill Guy Fawks retweeted
If you’re wondering why this selloff is so aggressive, save this! !
NASDAQ is down 5.1%. S&P 500 is down 3%. $MU −17%. $SNDK −18%.
This is what forced selling looks like.
It isn't happening in one sector. It's literally everywhere you look at once from financials to AI infrastructure and the best businesses like $MU $AMZN and $NVDA are falling hardest because they're the easiest things to sell when funds need cash…
It didn't have to be this way folks.
AI is the golden goose of this cycle…record earnings, contracted demand into 2030 and a market that was finally starting to price it.
But the war with Iran sent oil above $100, pushed inflation back up, forced the Fed into a hike and set the stage for last night's republican humiliation.
The cost of that war is now showing up in every portfolio in America including all the pension funds & 401Ks.
But what hasn't changed is the thesis.
3 days ago $AMD guided above everyone’s expectations.
$SMCI did $19.9bn in a quarter.
$MU and $SNDK are sold out for years, with margin floors written into their contracts. None of that has changed at all…in fact every earnings we get from here gets even better.
The fundamentals are intact. But every chart looks broken rn and has been broken for a couple of months.
These so called analysts spent this morning cutting their 2027–28 AI capex estimates because of the election.
The outcome had been telegraphed for months…these guys have no idea what they’re talking about…just as always chasing the news cycle.
Hyperscalers sign multi year capacity contracts and they don't rewrite them because control of the House changed hands.
What the market needs now is for the macro to stop getting worse.
Trump has accepted the results which takes a constitutional crisis off the table.
An Iran deal and lower oil would open the door for the Fed to cut. When this nonsense “war” fades, earnings are what's left and the earnings are still extraordinary and that’s where the opportunity is…
This is a flush mainly algo driven not the end of the AI trade or American capitalism...stay hard!
