Clojure 💻, 🚲 advocate, 🧮 math educated, romagnolo 🐓🇮🇹 @heliosmaster@mastodon.social
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Joined July 2007
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Davide Taviani retweeted
Quattro giorni fa @TernaSpA ha pubblicato il rapporto mensile di settembre 2026. Con i dettagli di produzione da ciascuna tecnologia.
Vorrei sottolineare alcuni aspetti che chiariscono, direi definitivamente, alcune "anomalie" (non godendo di immunità parlamentare mi tengo basso 😉) del mercato elettrico.
A Settembre 2026, il 45% della domanda elettrica è stata coperta da centrali a gas: una quota simile a quella di settembre 2025, quando era il 43%.
Invece, la produzione idroelettrica è calata dal 14,5 al 9,5% (l'anno idrologico 2026 è peggiore del 2025). E il contributo dei pompaggi si è mantenuto identico allo 0,4%.
Ma in borsa elettrica com'è andata?: i dati #GME (grazie, @ominodellaluce) mostrano che a settembre 2025 gli impianti a gas determinarono il prezzo marginale per il 53% delle ore, fissandolo in media a circa 110 €/MWh, e gli impianti idroelettrici per un po' meno del 20%, fissandolo a circa 100 €/MWh nel caso degli impianti ad acqua fluente (giustamente meno del prezzo a gas) e a circa 110 €/MWh (stesso prezzo dell'elettricità a gas) per quelli a bacino. Mentre i pompaggi fissarono il prezzo marginale per il 4,5% delle ore, a circa 120 €/MWh.
Invece, a settembre 2026, nonostante il calo notevole della produzione idroelettrica e l'aumento di quella a gas rispetto al 2025, gli impianti a gas hanno fissato il prezzo marginale solo per il 28% delle ore (quasi la metà del 2025) a circa 200 €/MWh (quasi il doppio del 2025); mentre gli impianti idroelettrici l'hanno fissato ancora per circa il 20% delle ore (e i pompaggi per oltre il 5% delle ore).
Verrebbe da dire "meno male": visto il raddoppio del prezzo dell'elettricità a gas, dovuto all'aumento della quotazione del gas e dei diritti di emissione ETS, dobbiamo ringraziare i "maghi" delle offerte in borsa, che, dimezzando le ore in cui il prezzo l'ha fissato il gas, son riusciti a ridurre io PUN!
E invece no: i "maghi" sono riusciti a farlo aumentare, giustamente (dal loro punto di vista) a loro vantaggio. Infatti, a settembre 2026, nel 72% delle ore in cui il prezzo marginale l'hanno fissato tecnologie diverse dal gas, esso NON È MAI STATO INFERIORE AL PREZZO DELL'ELETTRICITÀ A GAS!
E nel caso dell'idroelettrico, il prezzo fissato dagli impianti ad acqua fluente è stato in media pari a 205 €/MWh; 220 €/MWh per quelli a bacino e 245 €/MWh per i pompaggi. Con picchi orari sino a circa 300 €/MWh.
Oltre il doppio del 2025, nonostante nel 2026 come nel 2025 i costi operativi fossero gli stessi, bassi come nel quinquennio pre-covid, quando il prezzo di borsa era tra 55 e 60 €/MWh e pure remunerava quegli impianti.
Ma non viene anche a voi di chiedervi come mai un gestore di un impianto idroelettrico ad acqua fluente, a settembre 2026 (ma anche ad agosto, luglio, giugno... come ha finalmente notato la stessa @ARERA_it) abbia offerto la sua energia a un prezzo più alto di quella a gas, sapendo che, se tutta la capacità a gas fosse stata messa sul mercao al prezzo giusto, non sarebbe riuscito a vendere un solo kWh, perdendoli tutti in quell'ora, essendo l'acqua appunto fluente? Come mai non l'ha offerta a pochi euro in meno dell'elettricità a gas, come faceva a settembre 2025 (quando inoltre l'elettricità a gas costava la metà), avendo così la certezza di venderla con guadagni doppi dell'anno prima? Non è che per caso "s'aspettava" ogni volta -e un'aspettativa sistematica un po' puzza di certezza, non trovate?- che una certa capacità a gas sarebbe stata "trattenuta", in modo da far "entrare" il suo impianto? E tutto questo a fronte di un vistoso calo della produzione idroelettrica...
La soluzione? Eccola: le concessioni idroelettriche, che siano messe a gara o riassegnate agli attuali gestori, vanno remunerate con contratti a due vie (questo dobbiamo negoziare a Brxl), con strike price determinato con asta al ribasso, nel primo caso, o fissato in base alla remunerazione pre-covid, nel secondo.
NON C'È ALTRA SOLUZIONE A DIFESA DEI CONSUMATORI!
Davide Taviani retweeted
Europe’s founders need a European standard to compete globally from day one.
Europe’s leaders committed to delivering one. But their teams are negotiating away the very things that make it one.
There is still time to change course if Europe's Heads of State step in now.
Davide Taviani retweeted
one can criticize HSR for having unprofitable lines and generally being an expensive AF project, but I think it's an incredible experiment. ≈the entire densely inhabited part of China can be traversed within 8 hours, without air travel. Destruction of distance.
Davide Taviani retweeted
When I stilled worked on biosecurity, I first learned about Debug, a Google project to reduce mosquito populations.
Results from their Singapore pilot are now out.
They crushed mosquito populations, reducing dengue infections by 70% in the process:
There is no good reason for mosquitoes to exist in wealthy countries today.
New technologies can get rid of the mosquito species that cause diseases like dengue, yellow fever, and malaria; and others can prevent them from carrying those diseases.
worksinprogress.co/issue/mos…
So why do mosquitoes still exist?
In a new article for Works in Progress, Maya Rosen explains how state incapacity and risk aversion led to over a decade of delays and billions of unnecessary bites in the United States.
Oxitec, for example, engineered an Aedes aegypti mosquito in such a way that its female offspring would die before adulthood. Through sustained releases, they showed they could reduce local mosquito populations by 80% or more, in field trials.
They sought approval from the USDA in 2010, which then passed it to the FDA, which passed it to the EPA. In 2020, the EPA allowed them to conduct limited field trials in the Florida Keys. Two years ago, their experimental permit expired, and they still need another review before it can be used routinely. Their proposed field trial in California was withdrawn after public opposition.
Another company, MosquitoMate, developed a technique involving Wolbachia, which also suppresses local mosquitoes. They then spent over fifteen years working through the system before finally receiving commercial registration nationwide in 2024.
It seems that, sometimes, the barrier to getting rid of diseases isn’t technology at all. It’s policy and political will.
New products shouldn’t get stuck in regulatory review for so long, especially if the delays are about basic questions like which agency has oversight over the product, rather than testing for safety.
Though some of those uncertainties were being addressed, the broader changes haven’t materialized. After Biden’s 2022 executive order, the agencies planned to update how their coordinated framework was implemented. But Trump rescinded the order last year.
Meanwhile, the EPA unit that reviews new mosquito control products is still a small office backlogged in reviewing a wide range of products.
Mosquitoes are a policy choice. We can get rid of them. Will we choose to?
worksinprogress.co/issue/mos…
Davide Taviani retweeted
Riding bicycles with children in the rain? It's never been done! It can't be done!
Davide Taviani retweeted
Being pro European is exhausting.
It means being insulted for trying to protect what we love. It means being accused of wanting to destroy our nations when all we want is to prevent them from becoming powerless. We are accused of wanting to erase national identities when we want to protect them. We are accused of wanting open borders when we want Europe to finally control its borders. We are accused of destroying our economies when we want our industries, jobs, capital and companies to remain in Europe.
We are accused of every failure, when so often what we are fighting for is precisely the opposite.
We want Europeans to afford homes, pay their energy bills and build a future here. We want European startups to grow in Europe instead of having to turn to America for capital. We want our industries to compete instead of disappearing. We want secure borders and controlled immigration. We want affordable energy. We want the ability to defend ourselves.
We see a Russia willing to use military force. We see a China capable of overwhelming our industries. We see an America increasingly willing to use its economic, financial and technological power in its own interests.
And we refuse to accept that Europeans should simply watch while others shape the world around us.
We do not want Europe because we despise our nations. We want Europe because we love them too much to watch them become powerless.
We want France to remain France, Germany to remain Germany, Italy to remain Italy, Poland to remain Poland. But we also understand that sovereignty means very little if, individually, we no longer have the power to exercise it.
That is perhaps the tragedy of being pro European today. We have to fight outside to defend Europe from those who can weaken it, while fighting inside against the idea that European unity is somehow the enemy of our nations.
We are not trying to erase Europe’s nations.
We are trying to make sure they still have a future.
Davide Taviani retweeted
The AI didn't magically escape the network. It found the same exposed secrets, flat networks, overprivileged service accounts, and forgotten admin portals we've been documenting in pentest reports for the last decade. Apparently those findings only became urgent once the attacker could read them at 500 tokens per second.
Davide Taviani retweeted
In Italia, se il gas non superasse mai i 20 €/MWh e ci disinteressassimo delle emissioni, il nucleare non servirebbe: si potrebbe produrre energia elettrica con un mix del tipo 55% a gas e 45% rinnovabili.
Ma il prezzo del gas non è sotto il nostro controllo. Se salisse a 40-50 €/MWh (come negli ultimi mesi), il prezzo in bolletta quasi raddoppierebbe.
E se, per evitare di essere sotto il giogo del gas, pensassimo di continuare ad installare sempre più fotovoltaico e quel poco che ancora si può di eolico, sino a portare le rinnovabili all'80-90% (qualcuno dice 100%) abbattendo la quota a gas, per le caratteristiche del solare e dell'eolico che comportano una quota di energia tagliata in primavera/estate, batterie per accumulare una quota del resto e potenziamenti delle reti di trasmissione e distribuzione, il prezzo in bollette crescerebbe ancora di più del caso precedente.
Invece con un mix orientativamente 50% nucleare e il resto idroelettrico, geotermico, solare eolico e batterie, la bolletta sarebbe del tutto simile al primo caso (gas a 20 €/MWh), con 2 enormi vantaggi aggiuntivi: il prezzo sarebbe fisso e le emissioni sarebbero praticamente azzerate.
Chiaro, ora?
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Davide Taviani retweeted
Vi este mural hoy en la Universidad Nacional y casi que me pongo a llorar de emoción @ringo_ring
Davide Taviani retweeted
You've seen this image do the rounds.
The story goes Gas turbines blades - 5 years booked - single crystal blade technology - only 3 companies etc.
Yes & No.
Here's a no nonsense, first principles breakdown:
Firstly, Single crystal blades are used in a gas turbines (power) or a jet engines SPECIFICALLY where temperatures exceed 1,600°C
A single crystal blade is a piece of metal made of one continuous grain of nickel superalloy. No grain boundaries, no weak seams.
That is why it can survive 1,600°C gas at 10,000 g of centrifugal force for 30 years.
But SC blades for Jet engines vs power turbines are very different.
Same process but very different.
In a jet engine, the single-crystal blade is the Stage 1 rotor of the high-pressure turbine. It is roughly 10 centimetres long and weighs a few hundred grams.
It spins at 15,000 to 20,000 RPM. It runs in cycles, takeoff to landing, ten times a day.
What kills a jet blade is fatigue i.e - The slow weakening of metal under repeated cycles of stress and temperature change.
A power turbine Stage 1 blade is roughly 20 to 30 centimetres long, including the root and shank. It weighs 1.5 to 5 kilograms
It spins at a steady 3,000 to 3,600 RPM. It does not cycle, it sits in 1,600°C gas continuously for months.
What kills a power turbine blade is creep i.e - The slow stretching of metal under continuous heat and centrifugal force, year after year.
Different killer = different alloy.
Power turbine blades carry more rhenium for creep resistance.
AND Different size means different physics.
Growing a defect-free single grain through a 30 cm volume is multiple times harder than through a 10 cm one.
Casting yields are lower.
That's WHY the number of facilities that can do IGT-grade SC reliably is much smaller than the number that can do aero-grade.
EVEN Within gas turbines we have F-class, H-class, J-class and theese Gas turbines for power generation are sorted by firing temperature.
Meaning, higher firing temperature means higher efficiency, which means more electricity per cubic metre of gas.
1. F-class (mature, 1990s onwards) fire at around 1,300°C with combined-cycle efficiency of 58 to 60%.
2. H-class / HA-class (2000s onwards) fire at 1,450 to 1,500°C with combined-cycle efficiency of 60 to 63%.
3. J-class / JAC-class fire at around 1,600°C with combined-cycle efficiency of 63 to 64%, using rhenium-rich alloys at the absolute limit of metallurgy.
As firing temperature rises, the metallurgy gets harder.
The reason customers want H and J, not F is that each generation jump cuts fuel cost by 5 to 8% per MWh.
For a 1 GW base-load plant, that is over ~₹1,000 crore in fuel savings every year.
Every utility, hyperscaler, and LNG developer specifying new capacity wants H-class or J-class, not F.
WHERE IS THE BOTTLENECK TODAY FOR GAS TURBINES?
F-class capacity has plenty of headroom. Customers do not want F.
H-class and J-class capacity are the constrained ones.
Howmet's IGT-grade Stage 1 single-crystal line for H and J class is sold out. The in-house casting lines at GE Auburn, Siemens Berlin, and MHI Takasago are sold out.
WHO CAN ACTUALLY MAKE THEM?
For aero, capable countries number about 8.
For heavy-duty power turbines, the commercial club drops to 3 as far as ROW is concerned.
GE Vernova in the US, Siemens Energy in Germany, Mitsubishi Power in Japan + China & Russia have turbines that perform with varying performance parameters.
Hope this was insightful. If you're still reading. follow and repost. Tc.
Davide Taviani retweeted
Paris boosting property values and quality of life merely by making streets traffic free
Davide Taviani retweeted
I’m pleased to announce the results of the 2025 State of Clojure Survey! Our 15th edition!
Each year, the Clojure community shares about themselves, how they use Clojure, their favorite things, and more.
See the highlights, and get the full results at:
clojure.org/news/2026/02/18/…