...I delete my tweets. Message is my only goal. Master Corporate Finance. Technical analysis. Bitcoin OG. Independent offgrid farmer. Mensa Sverige. Wealth
Mars
Joined August 2015
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🚨 BREAKING: Hackers just sent fake NUCLEAR STRIKE warnings through emergency alert apps in Russia AND Ukraine, hours apart.
This is what Covid looked like in week 1. A few alerts. A few headlines. Nobody called it a crisis.
Why this is a big deal: the app people trust to tell them when to run told them a nuclear strike was coming. In a war. It was a lie. Next time a real alert comes, who believes it?
Government systems and national data hit like this:
1/ Russia: its emergency alert app was hacked. The Emergencies Ministry says a "massive cyberattack" hit the app. It sent fake warnings of an incoming nuclear strike.
2/ Ukraine: hours earlier, the air raid app falsely warned millions of Ukrainians of a nuclear strike, with fake nuclear and chemical alerts in and around Kyiv. A fake message said Russia's Oreshnik missile was deployed. Ukraine blames Russia.
3/ USA: the Federal Election Commission's e-filing system was offline for nearly 41 hours after a "bad actor" tried to breach it. It temporarily hid spending by big donors ahead of tomorrow's midterms. Voting was not affected.
4/ Japan: hackers got into its power and gas market watchdog's website. Data of about 125,000 police officers and staff may be compromised. 723 cyber incidents by October 20, more than all of 2024 or 2025.
5/ Belgium: on October 28, a cyberattack on the finance ministry forced the online tax portal to shut down temporarily.
6/ Australia: in June, an OpenAI agent breached a government health statistics portal. In October, OpenAI said an agent also entered a New South Wales government site.
7/ Denmark: nearly 8.75 million national ID numbers stolen. The suspected hacker says AI created the program.
Experts named October "Black October."
November is not even 2 days old.
Now zoom out.
Agent swarms are AI agents attacking together. One campaign used hundreds of them and broke into at least 440 print servers across 48 countries. 11 organizations in 26 seconds.
China: a China-linked group ran AI agents against 200+ organizations in at least 14 countries in 11 days. Foreign ministries included.
North Korea: about $6.36 billion stolen from Binance wallets, most in about 20 minutes. TRM Labs says North Korea did it.
This is just the start. More hacks are coming. More agent swarms. More hacking systems from China and North Korea. They will keep increasing.
Covid locked the streets. Hackers just faked a nuclear strike warning. Nobody is calling this a crisis yet. But Japan's prime minister already said of the attacks on Japan: "The situation is serious."
The Washington Post's headline: "A wave of new cyberattacks is just getting started."
Follow me for more.
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JUST IN: Over $3,750,000,000 withdrawn from Binance in 10 hours following the exchange resuming withdrawals.
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I asked an AI economist what happens to Europe when AGI arrives. I didn't expect THIS.
More on this: bravenewwest.substack.com/p/…
🤖 Made with AI
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THE BINANCE HACKER IS DUMPING ALTCOINS FOR ETH
this hacker sold $UNI, $ENA, $PEPE, $LINK, $AAVE, $ONDO and $WLD, converting everything into around 70,480 $ETH worth of $158.25m.
we’re talking millions in selling pressure across multiple altcoins
and the significant positions in $ARB, $RSR, $ZRO, $ZAMA and $FUN too
the market is already dealing with enough uncertainty
Now this one
Tbh people can keep drawing bullish trendlines, but when a wallet this big is actively selling, i’m watching the transactions before i start buying the dip
Don't try to catch the falling knife until its over
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INTEL: On-chain data identifies approximately $5.643B in outflows from Binance-labeled wallets as Tether and Circle freeze at least $2.316B in stablecoins
• Ethereum: $3.528B
• Bitcoin: $1.449B
• Tron: $628M
• Arbitrum, Optimism and Base: $38M combined
Stablecoins frozen:
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$ASST - most likely candidate for the next DAT panic.
$2.1B of debt at a 13% blended rate against $3.4B of BTC. At $50k BTC, the equity has 0 book value while interest still accrues
Meanwhile volume has decayed to ~$60M/day against >$1M of interest due per trading day. That is 1.5% of daily volume sold just to service coupons. At volumes from two months ago, it’s 5%. This simply isn't sustainable
current mNAV of ~1.75x seems excessively rich and in my view should trade at a discount steady state given the interest burden borne by the equity
with both debt instruments now steadily trading below 100 the only way the company can continue buying bitcoin is by selling more common, perfect storm for the common to re-rate to the downside
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I keep looking at $ASST's new $SATS IPO and one of the most interesting things that I haven't seen a lot of talk about is the liquidation preference.
$SATS doesn't have a ceiling or a floor so technically $ASST can issue shares at whatever price they want, but there's some interesting balance sheet math depending on where they issue the shares compared to the liquidation preference.
In short, the liquidation preference is the price the $SATS shareholder is owed in the event of a liquidation. The liquidation price can go above $100 in order to protect investors who buy higher, but it can never go below $100. Meaning if you buy it below the liquidation price, Strive owes you more than you paid for it in the event of a liquidation.
I don't believe a liquidation event will ever happen, but that doesn't change how issuance is treated on the balance sheet. Going forward let's just assume a liquidation preference of $100 just to explain how it works.
If Strive issues $SATS at $90 they are essentially taking out a $100 loan and getting paid $90 for it. The $10 gap is immediately spent from the residual book value of $ASST leaving them with the burden of paying 16.67% per year from a $90 $BTC investment.
If Strive issues $SATS at $110 the reverse happens. They are taking out a $100 loan and getting paid $110 for it. The $10 gap is immediately added to the value of $ASST leaving them with the burden of paying 13.64% per year.
So, what does this all mean? Strive can now choose its own terms that it wants to take when issuing equity to purchase $BTC. If bitcoin is trading at a deeply discounted price, they can actually spend book value and make a high conviction purchase. If $BTC is trading at an overvalued price, they can create book value while adding more $BTC to the balance sheet.
The assumed CAGR of $BTC explodes the closer you get to the 200 WMA and shrinks the further you get away from it. $SATS is a tool that can be used to exploit both.
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At 1:20 mark the Bloomberg host thought he had a tough question and @saylor gave a master class response. Well done. @Strategy MSTR STRC Digital Credit.
JUST IN: Global index fund giant MSCI approves a new rule that could exclude Strategy $MSTR and Metaplanet $MPJPY from its indexes as non-operating companies.
JP Morgan said this index exclusion could trigger outflows of about $2.8 billion from Strategy $MSTR.
The new rule's changes take effect on December 1st. 👀
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Nobody has built a sufficiently robust analytics system for tracking Bitcoin risks and opportunities at the enterprise level.
In tradfi, large companies pay $ 20M+ per year for these types of systems.
Revenue-generating products like this could one day represent a significant source of fuel powering the underlying @Strive engine ($SATA and $ASST).
We are so early.
If you want a better glimpse of the future, get good at reading between the lines.
When a CEO says something like this…pay attention.
@ColeMacro $ASST $SATA
And you thought he was just hiring podcasters to make more content…
@ColeMacro @Strive
$ASST $SATA $BTC
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Let's talk about what a post warrant $ASST looks like.
WARNING: This is weapons grade bull fuel, hang on tight.
Historically accretive exercises and the aftermath:
July 2024 $MSTR Convertible Notes:
The notes were converted at ~$39.80 well above the Bitcoin per share value wiping out $650 million in debt and boosting $BTC per share.
$MSTR was pinned around $130-$148 right up to the conversion cutoff. The aftermath? Up 25% within 10 days and 3x over the next 4 months.
Fall 2024 Metaplanet 11th series warrants:
Holders exercised warrants at ¥555 per share while the underlying $BTC NAV was a fraction of that, injecting ~$66M (¥10B) directly into spot Bitcoin and spiking $BTC Yield.
2-6 weeks prior to the exercise being finished the stock was pinned to ¥900–¥1,100 (starting to sound familiar?). It doubled in 2 weeks to ¥2,000 and doubled again in another 2 months to ¥4,000.
Similar thing happened with DraftKings in 2020, up 110% in 10 weeks.
Same thing with MP Materials in 2021: Pinned to $25-$27 then up 45% over 8 weeks and doubled over 5 months.
There's a pin in the price because it's a FN hand grenade, buy accordingly. 4 more trading days left.
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We cannot rule out private $ASST warrant sales WITH a deep pockets buyer or set of buyers, so that all warrants would be exercised by buyer(s) looking to establish a large position. Ignore the 9.99% blocker, even if it exists. Notice must be given to @Strive
@AngryBuhda
@ZynxBTC
@AdamBLiv
@ColeMacro
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⚡️You can absolutely fail while never giving up.
You can spend ten years pushing on the wrong door.
The deeper truth is:
Persistence only becomes powerful when paired with adaptation.
The people who eventually win are usually stubborn about the destination and ruthless about changing the route.
They keep the mission.
They kill bad methods.
They absorb reality faster than everyone else.
They come back with a better model.
You can fail a thousand times and still win, as long as failure keeps changing you faster than it breaks you.
That is the real version.
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Gotta love Power Hour 📈💪⏱️
$SATA
A beautiful recurring theme. Capitalists parking their fiat cars for the day 🚗 We’re gonna need a bigger parking lot!
@ColeMacro
@PunterJeff
@AdamBLiv
@Werkman
