Jacob’s Insights

$ONDS before more acquisitions ONDS should blow away the 2027 rev estimate of $692 mm Here’s bottoms up guesstimates Sentrycs $120 mm Work view $100 mm Rotron $100 mm Omnisys. $70 mm Mistral $200 mm Indo earth. $75 mm 4M defense. $50 mm Roboteam. $50 mm Bird. $60 mm Iron drone. $75 mm Optimus. $40 mm Cyberhawk. $70 mm Omberg. $75 mm Apeiro. $18 mm That totals $1,103 mm This is before more massively accretive M+A Let’s grow it organically at 40% 2028 $1544 2029 $2,162 2030 $3,026 2030 stated (and obviously dated) goal is 2030 revs $1.5 B and 30% ebitda Should roughly double the 2030 rev goal. And if 30% ebitda we are talking $908 mm So assuming no more acquisitions ONDS trades at 1.5x 2030 revs. And 5x 2030 ebitda Easily deserves 30x plus ebitda w that kinda growth. In which case it’s a 6 bagger from here and a roughly $50 stock Of course these numbers will be materially higher. As doesn’t include more massively accretive m+a. Plus worldview revenue potential is beyond silly. If you have in 4-5 years 1000 balloons a year, each flying 90 days and generating $30k per day revenues the WV revenues world be $2.7 B. It’s just math, people. Whereas if we grow the above WV 2027 estimate of $100 mm at 40% we get $275 mm. That’s an extra $2 B in 2030 revs. Too much? Fine. Call it an extra $1.0 B and we’re talking $4.0 B in 2030 revs and $1.2 B in ebitda However you look at it ONDS is a screaming buy. And the acquisition strategy has been brilliant. Those who whine incessantly about dilution ain’t gotta a clue. World view for example is likely worth $5-10 B to ONDS. And they paid $150 mm. At the midpoint ($7.5 B) that a 50x return. Tell me again about dilution…,