One of my favorite papers last year was The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing. It covers 200+ years of data from over 50 countries to examine how asset classes have performed across a range of macro, policy and valuation environments. My conversation with author Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank walks through the findings: • What are the historical returns of stocks, bonds and gold? • What variables best predict long-term performance? • What does the recent surge in gold suggest? • Should we expect US stocks to continue to outperform the world? 0:00 Starts 1:54 Importance of real vs nominal returns 5:36 Historical returns of gold 8:28 Global investment opportunities 18:06 Bond market performance and growth's impact on asset prices 23:11 Potential impact of AI 30:34 Valuation importance 42:43 Predictors of bond performance 47:01 Historical periods of high valuations 55:12 Impact of AI on economics Sponsored by @AlphaArchitect