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Current IPEV (In-Person Early Voting) Map of Florida
#Florida #FLSen #FLGov #Midterms2022 #Midterms #MidtermElections
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Hispanic voter turnout has surpassed presidential levels in Texas.
My church in Dallas has over 500 Latino Christians. Guess who they voted for? Definitely not Talarico.
Stop buying the nonsense that Latinos love the democrats.
It couldn’t be further from the truth.
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I’m entering a new chapter politically, and I won’t pretend that it comes without reservations.
For the first time, I’m preparing to vote Republican. I’ve grown to appreciate Donald Trump more than I ever expected, and seeing his treatment of someone I admire deeply, Nicki Minaj, has contributed to my changing perspective. ❤️🔥
But I’m still a Black man in America.
I know what racism looks like. I know what prejudice feels like. And I know there’s a difference between embracing an individual Black person and genuinely embracing the Black community.
That’s where my fear lies.
I’ve become disillusioned with Democrats. While I recognize their acknowledgment of generations of racial oppression, I remain deeply dissatisfied with what I believe has actually changed for our communities.
And as I consider a different political direction, I carry a question that matters far more to me than party loyalty:
Will I be accepted as a Black man, or merely welcomed as a Black man who votes Republican?
Because those are two very different things.
I want equality. I want opportunity. I want the Black community to experience genuine respect and acceptance, regardless of political affiliation.
I’m willing to reconsider my politics. I’m willing to give another party a chance. But I’m not willing to abandon my concern for my people in the process.
My vote may change. My identity doesn’t. And my expectations of America shouldn’t have to. 💪🏾❤️🇺🇸
@NICKIMINAJ 🔥❤️
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🗳️ Florida Vote By Mail + In Person Early Voting Update, October 27, 2026, 3:00pm. Over 160,000 ballots in this update. That's the second most for a single drop so far. Republicans lead by 33,866 votes statewide (R+0.99%). They are currently having their best Early Vote performance today at R+16.51. Yesterday, Democrats ate into a similar margin later in the day. 3.4 million ballots have been cast!
Statewide Total Votes:
🔴 REP: 1,369,636 (40.14%)
🔵 DEM: 1,335,770 (39.15%)
🟣 OTHER: 706,348 (20.70%)
160,793 new VBM + IPEV ballots across 67 counties have been counted, with the largest update coming from Broward County.
Latest Drop:
🔴 REP: +71,961 (44.75%)
🔵 DEM: +54,897 (34.14%)
🟣 OTHER: +33,935 (21.10%)
🟢 TOTAL: +160,793
🟢 Total Votes Statewide: 3,411,754
🔴 Republicans lead statewide by 33,866 votes, an increase of 17,064 votes compared to the previous lead.
🔴 This is a 0.48% move toward Republicans.
jaysonfrascatore.github.io/F…
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🚨 JUST NOW: Florida early voting is R+16.4 for Day 9, about 22,500 ballots, with Republicans at 47.8% and Democrats at 31.4%.
Cumulative early is R+8.3 across roughly 1.8 million early votes cast statewide.
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🚨 BREAKING: Arizona Republicans just WON a MASSIVE Maricopa County early vote ballot drop by R+3.7 points out of nearly 100K ballots
LET'S GO!!
Arizona is STILL redder than 2022 which is solid news for electing Andy Biggs governor
TPUSA is hard at work! 👏🏻
Data: @mcmartinezaz
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2026 Arizona early vote 7 days out vs same point in 2022 per @StealthPolling
2022:
🔵 Democrats: 39.4%
🔴 Republicans: 36.9%
🟡 Other: 23.7%
2026:
🔴 Republicans: 38.6% (+1.7)
🔵 Democrats: 38.0% (-1.4)
🟡 Other: 23.4% (-0.4)
➡️🐍⸆⸉ retweeted
Marist also asked in their poll:
“Regardless of who you support, who do you think will actually win the election for Senate?”
🟥 Susan Collins 58%
🟦 Troy Jackson 40%
🟥 Collins +18%
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One interesting thing about AK is that Peltola doesn't seem to be exciting the base. Republicans are outvoting democrats in both mail and IPEV. To have a chance at winning in this Trump+13 state, she would need maximum turnout from the base and so far that has not happened.
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Florida Early Vote Update 10/27:
Republicans took the lead yesterday and they will look to build on it today. They lead by 11,945 votes now, which is less than previous cycles at this point.
The pattern currently is that Republicans are winning IPEV in the morning/early afternoon, and then Democrats gain back in the evening. Democrats are also gaining back in the mail each day.
What Republicans need to see is the IPEV margin gap continue to increase to build a solid lead in the early vote. They won't catch up to previous cycle leads, but they need to keep getting their voters out.
Republicans had a lead with mail return rate (2nd image) but Democrats have slowly caught up, which is helping with their mail leads daily.
Republicans were up to about 17.5% in the IPEV yesterday before falling down to 11%. Keep an eye on how high they get today (is it higher than that?) and then how far they fall back down. That will give us indications into how motivated Rs and Ds are to vote as this week progresses.
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The goalpost moving will be insane after election night. What is insane is very few people are claiming the GOP will "win" the Midterms. I expect them to lose the House, several governorships on net, and possibly net Senate seats as well. Yet these people are constantly attacking me and others for giving electoral analysis because they keep inflating their benchmarks to a level where nearly half of high propensity GOP voters just magically disappear. Really hate to break it to them, but that's not going to happen, most likely.
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Per NBC/Target Smart, this is the Age breakdown of early voting nationwide.
The 18-29 age group is still sitting at 6% of the electorate.
A lot of polls had that group at 15-18%.
Starting to look like polls have the electorate wrong.
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Lifelong moderate liberal here.
With Democrats nominating radicals like Abdul El-Sayed, and Democratic Party leaders cheering him on, I think this is the year where it makes sense for all common-sense, moderate, reasonable Democrats like myself to vote straight ticket GOP
