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THE TRUMP EFFECT AND THE CONFIDENCE TRAP: HOW PERCEPTION DEFEATS INTELLIGENCE It seems that hardly anyone still doubts that Trump is an idiot. His absurd behavior, economic ignorance, limited vocabulary, narcissism, contradictory statements, and constant reversals have even earned him the nickname TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out. But the real question is: how did someone like him become president of the United States? Niccolò Machiavelli offered an explanation 500 years ago. Power is a performance. The winner is not necessarily the person who knows the most, but the one who performs most convincingly. Politics rewards appearances, confidence, and the ability to create an image of strength. People do not always seek truth. They seek certainty. Intelligent people recognize complexity. They understand consequences, compromises, probabilities, and uncertainty. They hesitate before making promises because they know reality rarely offers simple answers. But crowds often interpret caution as weakness. One person says, “We need to analyze the consequences.” Another declares, “I know exactly how to fix everything!” Guess whom the crowd follows. Modern psychology describes a related phenomenon: the Dunning-Kruger effect. People with limited competence may overestimate their abilities, while genuine experts are often more conscious of what they do not know. Confidence becomes a substitute for competence. The louder someone speaks, the more certain they appear, and the easier it becomes for others to mistake conviction for knowledge. As Shakespeare wrote, “The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.” This is the trap of modern politics. People who speak as though they know everything can attract enormous audiences, while those who carefully explain complicated realities struggle to be heard. But the greatest danger begins when such a leader actually gains power. Machiavelli wrote: “The first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him.” A weak leader fears strong personalities. He dislikes independent judgment, criticism, and anyone who might demonstrate greater competence. Instead of surrounding himself with experts, he chooses loyalists. Instead of people who identify problems, he appoints people who conceal them. Instead of advisers who challenge his decisions, he prefers those who applaud every word. And incompetence spreads downward through the entire system. Eventually, the government becomes an ecosystem of mediocrity, where loyalty matters more than ability, criticism is treated as betrayal, and uncomfortable truths are systematically suppressed. Such a leader does not strengthen institutions. He gradually destroys them from within. He fears independent experts because they expose his limitations. He fears honest feedback because it threatens his carefully manufactured image of greatness. And when a genuine crisis arrives, this system reveals its weaknesses. There is no depth, no independent expertise, no flexibility. Only mutual fear, personal loyalty, and illusions of strength. History has repeatedly demonstrated how dangerous such political structures can become. The tragedy is that societies continue to reward the very qualities that make these systems possible. Why do people follow leaders who promise easy solutions, speak loudly, and never admit uncertainty? The answer lies not only in Trump, but in human psychology. Our brains seek shortcuts. Confidence, decisiveness, and simple explanations feel reassuring, especially during periods of fear and instability. But confidence is not intelligence. Charisma is not competence. The greatest political danger begins when a society can no longer distinguish between someone who understands reality and someone who merely sounds certain about it. And that brings us to the most uncomfortable question of all: why do voters repeatedly mistake the performance of leadership for leadership itself?

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17 October 1962. The Beatles made their 1st live TV appearance on Granada TV’s People & Places in Manchester. They played their new single Love Me Do and Some Other Guy. The group had travelled from Liverpool where they already played a lunchtime show at the Cavern Club.

Just had my hair done and as usual, the moment I sat down, my stylist and I started terfing it up. But this time was different. First one woman joined the conversation saying she'd been banned from her women-only gym last month for complaining about a man (with a woman soul) parading around naked in the changing room, and the next minute the entire salon was terfing it up a storm. There's been a dramatic shift in Canada in recent months. I feel it everywhere I go. Canadian women resent having men invade their spaces and have had enough of Canada prioritizing the rights of sex offenders over the safety and protection of women and girls. And now, crucially, more and more are not afraid to say so.

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I’m glad you asked. First of all, let’s outline the hallmarks of a social contagion event: - A rapid exponential explosion in numbers. - The sudden appearance of an entirely new patient group - Adolescent girls mostly affected. - Clusters of friends presenting with the same symptom/behaviour All of these are present in the epidemic of young people identifying as trans in the 2010s. Now, the way society normally responds to such events is with an immediate search for the trigger event and the vectors for the contagion. For example, with the bulimia contagion of the 80s, the trigger was found to be media coverage of the disorder. With the outbreak of anorexia in Hong Kong in the 90s, it was the sensational media coverage of a school girl who had collapsed and died on a busy street. With TikTok tics in the 2010s, a young Tourettes sufferer’s YouTube channel was swiftly identified. There are endless examples. In those instances, clinicians didn’t wait around for decades for someone to conduct a reliable study showing that the event was a social contagion. They recognised all the hallmarks and acted. In the case of bulimia though, not nearly fast enough. In the case of the trans contagion, all researchers had to do was take a glance at the cultural messaging of the era. The inflection point coincides precisely with the dawn of the trans rights movement, with media celebration of trans-identified public figures, and trans influencers proliferating rapidly on social media. And those early YouTube influencers actually documented the social contagion on camera for all to see with the How I Knew I Was Trans genre of video — with each young person describing encountering a trans-identified person online and immediately recognising themselves in it and adopting the identity. That’s the social contagion in action. We don’t need studies to show it’s a social contagion. We just need to open our eyes and look at the evidence that is, and always has been, all around us.

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