Research Fellow @joinFAI; opinions mine not theirs | Working to make US transportation faster, cheaper, more reliable, & less safe | prev: Econ & CS @UChicago

Inside the Beltway, USA
Joined January 2022
Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
Nate, Cheesecake Factory stands for ABUNDANCE LIBERALISM! Please take your reactive richardsonism elsewhere
Evan I thought your book was OK, and I'm certainly very receptive to the idea of D organizations having become too woke/progressive/etc but this Cheesecake Factory stuff makes you look like a humorless reactionary idiot take the fucking L.
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
While people around the world celebrate freedom, Los Angeles falls to fascism today. nbclosangeles.com/news/local…
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
thinking about amtrak time table art
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
Replying to @MakeUSAVAT
The MW literature is no different than any other controversial subject in empirical social science. You know what the paper says based on the author/s. There is (somehow) always a small methodological difference that can reverse results -- and was not reported by the others.
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
This is a great example of how bottlenecks constrain the effects of AI on growth.
Mom using Claude sonnet 4.6 on low reasoning for a diet plan at the maximum text size and printed it out
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
A friend of mine who is a high level professional and long time volunteer fire fighter tells me he believes that the fire unions are trying to squeeze out volunteers by continually increasing training requirements to make it too onerous for volunteers to stay in.
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
I had one of these through Progressive, they called in Snapshot. My insurance premium was cut 30% and it was amazing. Or at least it was until I tried applying at the Post Office years later. At the time, my car was registered in Florida where I lived, but I parked my car while I was over the road at my parents house in South Carolina. Progressive calls me up about a month or 2 after I have the Snapshot plugged in, asking why my car was always parked in SC. I explained that I was a truck driver and that’s where I parked it while at work. They told me that since my car was in SC for the majority of the year, it needed to be insured in SC. Sweet, my premium dropped even lower. Then a month later I get home to Florida and I see there’s a letter from the DMV in Florida demanding I reinsure my Florida-registered vehicle back to Florida, or they were cancelling my license. The deadline for that was 3 days before I got home. Oops. A few phone calls and a $100 or so fine later, everything was fixed. But for the next 5 years, that cancellation, not suspension, of my license would come up every time I applied at USPS because that’s how far back they checked your driving record. What a pain in the ass.
A few years ago, my car insurance offered a deal: put a tracker in your car for six months and MAYBE your insurance rate would go down. The tracker had a built-in accelerometer and any time you messed up, it beeped at you, letting you know you were a bad driver. I took the deal. What I noticed was that the most common reason for getting beeped at was slamming the brakes too hard. Coming to a sudden stop was, in the car insurance company's opinion, evidence of bad driving. Long story short, I ran a LOT of red lights over those six months. I wouldn't want to dangerously slam the brakes, after all. And after the six months were up, my insurance rate went way down!
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
It’s clear this stuff is debanking for the AI era. They can lobotomize you without due process. There are legitimate safety concerns but the way the system works right now is broken and insane. Shocking that the same people expect us to trust them with literal brain implants and mind reading technology
banned for reverse engineering work? that’s wild oh well, -$500, and a bunch of banked resets) but gained motivation to get 3 more machines and finish my cluster. i have never used openai to exploit or find vulnerabilities, only local reverse engineering which tripped daybreak.
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
feels like there's kind of an elephant in the room with this map but I can't quite put my finger on it
What if russia occupied 20% of your country?
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
.@NHTSAgov’s reasoning to create a cyan ADS Marker Lamp standard: NHTSA reiterates multiple times that it’s just an optional standard to have consistency between AV’s if manufacturers want an external indicator.
BREAKING: NHTSA has filed a proposed rule to modernize FMVSS 108, the federal vehicle lighting standard, for autonomous vehicles that have no steering wheel or pedals. • Turn signal, hazard, and high-beam control requirements would apply only to vehicles with manual driving controls • Adds optional cyan "ADS marker lamps" so people can tell a car is driving itself • Publishes Oct 26, with a 30-day comment period Another federal barrier for vehicles like Cybercab is starting to come down. Docket NHTSA-2026-1519 | FR Doc 2026-21794
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
When I talk about Hoboken's land use being a disaster, this is what I have in mind. Yes, it's better than the suburbs, but this is not nearly dense enough that close to PATH. jerseydigs.com/425-newark-st…
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
This is how it worked in 10th century Iceland
Should you be able to sell a lawsuit? Like if I thibk I have a pretty good case and I’m likely to win. But don’t rly wanna bother /take on the risk/ have a high discount rate. Couldn’t I sell it so someone else? Or bundle them and sell as a pack?
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
Illinois Metra released a *3 year timeline* to study *how they should do the study* for the *renovation* of a single station, including 2 years of community engagement for the study’s study
FFS please stop "seeking public comment" and please stop "bringing stakeholders to the table" and please just fucking build the fucking thing. hsrail.org/blog/cascadias-bu…
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
Ark Invest: "Tesla added the Cybercab to its robotaxi fleet. Our research suggests that, at equal utilization rates, Tesla’s operational costs per mile will be ~40% lower than those for Waymo’s next-gen robotaxi."
ARK Invest has just released their new Tesla valuation model, projecting @Tesla could reach a $17.5 trillion valuation by 2031, and upwards of $20.4 trillion in a bull case. ARK's 2031 Tesla base case: $4,400/share • ~1M Optimus robots sold externally, generating ~$212B in revenue • Robotaxi is ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value (down from ~90% in ARK's 2029 model) • ~8.1M robotaxis deployed, with ~$753B in ride-hail revenue • Total revenue of ~$1.45T and EBITDA of ~$902B • Market cap of ~$17.5T • Tesla's AI infrastructure spend grows from ~$7B to $225B cumulatively ARK's 2031 Tesla bull case: $5,000/share • EV revenue (excluding credits): $355B • Robotaxis: 10M vehicles and $899B in ride-hail revenue • Energy storage: 2,693 GWh deployed and $193B in revenue • Optimus: 1.2M robots sold externally and $254B in revenue • Total revenue: $1.62T • EBITDA: $1.045T, a 65% margin, with a 72% gross margin • Market cap: $20.4T ARK's model does not assume SpaceX and Tesla merge, but they estimate combined SpaceX and Tesla could generate $3.8T in revenue by 2031, with SpaceX contributing ~62%.
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
It's out! You can now read The Bad Economics Handbook. Read my explanations of things people have stupid ideas about, repost my graphs on this website for dunks....or comment if you see a mistake. jackonomics.substack.com/p/t… badeconomicshandbook.com
I have written 25,000+ words so far explaining these things in a "Handbook of Bad Economics." Problems: - General lack of macro knowledge (need to talk about MMT, national debt, do tax cuts pay for themselves) - Need more articles from major public figures to begin chapters with
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
This is literally the only protest I’d ever join
HAPPENING NOW in downtown Chicago, outside the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the historic center of onion futures trading
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
“Fifty eight, out of date! Let our onions speculate!”
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
HAPPENING NOW in downtown Chicago, outside the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the historic center of onion futures trading
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
Woah
Replying to @doristsao
6/ Remarkably, when we reconstructed the image using neural activity from one of the states, it looked exactly like the conscious face, and when we did the same from the other half of time, it looked exactly like the suppressed face. This means that just from neural activity, we can reconstruct in rich detail not only something that you consciously perceive, but also something that escapes your awareness.
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
Best one by far imo
This quoted post is unavailable.
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