Focused on AI power. Views are my own. Not investment advice.
New York, NY
Joined April 2026
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Longview Research retweeted
🚨🚨
For $BE - def a clear cut positive , news hitting now
The commonwealth of Virginia released the 2026 Virginia Energy Plan just released
energy.virginia.gov/public/d…
the authors calling out fuel cells and linear generators specifically 12 different pages of this report mention 5 GW of non-combustible generation
Bloom Energy $BE has their footprint all over this for Potentially a new sales channel for Growing Fuel Cell Support
Not sure what to make of this yet for $BE
BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi just disclosed up to $13.5 million in new stock trades.
Major buys include:
15,000 shares of Bloom Energy, $BE
10,000 shares of Intel, $INTC
She also purchased calls worth up to $5 million in $BE and $500,000 in $INTC, expiring 06/17/2027.
You read that right.
She bought leveraged positions in companies that the government legislates.
Longview Research retweeted
Elon Musk says the AI boom hits a WALL this year when we run out of power to run the chips.
He says the whole industry is about to learn a hard lesson in hardware.
Chip output is exploding, but electricity is nearly flat everywhere outside China.
So the two lines cross this year.
He says by the end of the year, we will be making more AI chips than we can actually turn on.
Millions of them pile up with nowhere to plug in.
In his words, the bottleneck for the next year is not chips, it is raw power.
Whoever can turn on the most chips fastest wins the race.
In the end, the AI race comes down to one thing:
Raw electricity.
— Elon Musk (.@elonmusk) on Dwarkesh Patel's (.@dwarkesh_sp) podcast
Longview Research retweeted
$FCEL / $BE / $NBIS
FuelCell Energy is getting hyped again on FinTwit as a alternative fuel-cell play for data centers.
Before piling in, read this clear-eyed breakdown of the actual unit economics.
"It seems like fintwit just invests in stories these days. Fuel cells sound amazing. But after years of this exact same quarter, with share count going from 21 million to 54 million in twelve months to fund it, at some point you have to ask if this is a business or just a science project funded by retail."
Worth watching carefully rather than treating it as a narrative trade.
It seems like $FCEL is the new fintwit favorite again so I will say the quiet part out loud as I have looked into it in the past.
I am all for investing in a company before it is profitable. I own plenty of names that are pre GAAP profitability. But you have to be able to see the path. You have to be able to say, if they grow, the math gets better.
This is not that.
This quarter they did 35.5 million in revenue and it cost them 48.5 million to deliver it. Not operating costs. Just the cost to make the thing they sell. You are down 13 million before you pay a single employee.
And it is not a one time issue. Product is 18 million in, 20.2 million out. Generation, the recurring revenue story everyone pitches, is 8.6 million in, 22 million out. You are losing more than two dollars for every dollar of power you sell. How do you scale that. Scaling just makes the hole bigger.
Then there is a 42.5 million impairment on top of it. That is management admitting the assets they built are not worth what they said they were worth.
It seems like fintwit just invests in stories these days. Fuel cells sound amazing. But after years of this exact same quarter, with share count going from 21 million to 54 million in twelve months to fund it, at some point you have to ask if this is a business or just a science project funded by retail.
I am not here to tell you what to do with your money. I am just looking at this filing and I do not see a path to profitability. Not in the long term. Not ever at this unit economics.
Regarding their addressable opportunity/market and how they fit in, their product has some flexibility whether it addresses large or small DC sizes. I tend to agree that the smaller DC sites are less constrained for power, but the definition of "small" has also changed. Small use to be 10MW, today "small" seems to be sub-200MW. So the 80MW size they are pointing to fits in this area where it is big enough to be compelling to use Capstone for the power source and that may actually be too big for the grid (readily available today).
Longview Research retweeted
$NBIS Vineland site amendment for $BE solution was approved on Monday.
Yesterday, $BE revealed Bloom Power Connect, a new deployment system that reduces installation time by more than 40%.
I'd bet my house this new integration is being used onsite at Vineland already.
Bloom frames it as a repeatable model for large-scale power installations. With $ORCL Project Jupiter delays, $NBIS's Vineland site will be Bloom's largest deployment for the foreseeable future at 300MW.
Bloom's next largest single-site installation is 80MW at SK Eternix's project in Korea.
Connecting the dots? I, for one, am liking the odds of EOY delivery.
BREAKING: I just signed an Executive Order implementing the strictest standards in the nation for AI data centers — because I will not allow Pennsylvanians to be bullied by greedy developers and bulldozed by the lawyers working for these big tech companies.
Effective immediately, we’re requiring AI data centers to commit to strict environmental and transparency requirements AND receive approval from the local community if they want to build here.
That’s not all: We’re also removing ALL data centers from our Fast Track permit program and stopping any office or agency under my jurisdiction from signing an NDA with AI data center developers.
I’m putting these developers on notice and letting them know that we will not let them bully Pennsylvanians, disregard our constitutional right to clean air and pure water, and drive up our utility bills.
I’m using the full weight of my executive authority to block the objectionable, unwarranted projects and put the nation’s strictest set of protections in place.
Power is THE binding constraint.
Data centers are being shut down, GPUs are sold out, models are being commoditized and spot rates are rising all leads to power being critical. Not fanciful plans for power, future forecasts of BTM or distributed batteries blah blah blah but energized power today.
This means the following hierarchy is developing from greatest to least value:
1. Hyperscaler
2. Neocloud
3. Model maker
Ideally, you are 1+3 (Google, SpaceX, Meta) where you own massive power today and have a leading set of models to keep API pricing from 3rd parties honest enough to benefit them vs the model maker. But even if you are just (1), you can still extract great economics from (3) because owning the power is the leverage.
This means (2) needs to scale up fast. If Neoclouds do not scale up fast and move up the value stack towards hyperscalers (solely measured by energized compute online today) they are going to leave a lot of revenue on the table which will complicate their long term financing plans.
Also, starting now, a neocloud’s real competitors will be well capitalized frontier model companies who will do sweetheart deals with (1) and/or will vertically integrate and try to become (1). You can see this in the fact pattern (Ant+AWS, OAI+Stargate).
Get your hands on power.
It’s the spice.
Citadel CEO - Ken Griffin just explained why power is the moat in the AI race.
"Build the corresponding power generation... then build that damn data center in America."
Still wondering why Citadel wanted Leopold's NeoCloud portfolio? 👀
$IREN has been executing this strategy for years.
• 🇺🇸 Building AI infrastructure in America (Texas)
• ⚡ ~6GW of secured power
• 🔌 Grid-connected sites with critical infrastructure already in place
Longview Research retweeted
It seems the short sellers are at it again when it comes to Bloom $BE. If nothing else works, just rehash the arguments Hindenburg made in 2019 with second-hand data.
As for the quality of their research, I'll give one example -
"Scandium is embedded in the fuel-cell stacks, so the faster those stacks wear out, the more scandium Bloom must source over the life of each installation."
97% of the cell by weight is recycled and goes back to the ceramic cell tape casters so Scandium is not an issue for recycling. Only new cells require more Scandium.
It is up to Bloom if it wants to share data to counter all this, but to think infrastructure investors would not do due diligence before investing billions?
$CEPL is now +7.5% in pre-market. Correlations holding for now mechanically, lets see what the gap higher ends up being. NFA, do your own DD.
$CEPL connected to my post yesterday in a potential +20% move today in $CEPL, in pre-market we have $EROC +11%, $FLNC +9.7%, $GEV +4.75%, $CAT +3.3%, $FTAI +6%, $SEI +4.75%, and crypto power $WULF, $CIFR, $CLSK, $IREN, $HUT all up in pre-market too. $CEPL has low volumes, so it cannot move in premarket or in same market at same rate as $BE, hence the catch-up trade. Lets see if these correlations hold mechanically.
$AEP, $BE. I just read the $AEP transcript, these guys backed $BE even stronger than any other company and upsized buying and demand signal for $BE. $AEP even pulled in pipeline from 2030 to 2028, accelerating cycles of power deployments. Short report concerns totally fabricated by short seller. You should read their transcript and again the value proposition is gapping higher as I write this.
$BE. I just want to point out that if this is true (@dwarkesh_sp's take below) the trade-off value (cost of not bringing things online fast) of AI Power is quite literally going to gap higher. This means the value prop of $BE is going to gap higher. $BE has become the standard AI Power provider for Hyperscalers/Neoclouds/etc., clean, fast, 60%+ efficiency, and costs COMING DOWN every year. This is a not a runaway train, it is a tectonic plate land slide into $BE's industry position as a leader on all fronts in this AI paradigm.
$BE. Read and understand what is fundamentally happening in the value of time to power in AI. Overlooking this is quite literally the next Alpha upside leg of this cycle. Don't get distracted.
$BE. I just want to point out that if this is true (@dwarkesh_sp's take below) the trade-off value (cost of not bringing things online fast) of AI Power is quite literally going to gap higher. This means the value prop of $BE is going to gap higher. $BE has become the standard AI Power provider for Hyperscalers/Neoclouds/etc., clean, fast, 60%+ efficiency, and costs COMING DOWN every year. This is a not a runaway train, it is a tectonic plate land slide into $BE's industry position as a leader on all fronts in this AI paradigm.
$CEPL connected to my post yesterday in a potential +20% move today in $CEPL, in pre-market we have $EROC +11%, $FLNC +9.7%, $GEV +4.75%, $CAT +3.3%, $FTAI +6%, $SEI +4.75%, and crypto power $WULF, $CIFR, $CLSK, $IREN, $HUT all up in pre-market too. $CEPL has low volumes, so it cannot move in premarket or in same market at same rate as $BE, hence the catch-up trade. Lets see if these correlations hold mechanically.
$BE. I just want to point out that if this is true (@dwarkesh_sp's take below) the trade-off value (cost of not bringing things online fast) of AI Power is quite literally going to gap higher. This means the value prop of $BE is going to gap higher. $BE has become the standard AI Power provider for Hyperscalers/Neoclouds/etc., clean, fast, 60%+ efficiency, and costs COMING DOWN every year. This is a not a runaway train, it is a tectonic plate land slide into $BE's industry position as a leader on all fronts in this AI paradigm.
"Lab compute 3x-es year over year. For a lab to 10x revenue while continuing to only 3x compute, some combination of the following 3 things has to happen:
1. Lab margins have to increase,
2. The price of compute has to increase,
3. Labs have to spend a greater fraction of their compute on inference.
My understanding is that basically all 3 of these things have been happening..."
"Consider the price at which Google and Anthropic are renting compute from SpaceX.
Google is reportedly paying $900 million a month for 110K GPUs [at] ... roughly 2x the spot price per hour for those GPUs. And the current spot price is itself 40% higher than it was in February."
Longview Research retweeted
$CEPL. In addition to the valuation being so attractive (see Part Two of my reports), the big question on Capstone comes down to if they win a Data Center deal. To assess this, we ran a six dimension framework (snipped summary chart here) to run through what we believe a Hyperscale or Data Center buyer would assess Capstone on. Capstone passes this buyer test with flying colors that are measured on anchored requirements of deployment, worth a read and some of your time to understand these dimensions. These all point to a greater likelihood of Capstone getting a data center deal at some point. Good things take time, do your own due diligence. And remember that good things take time. NFA. $BE, $GEV, $BW, $BWA, $ENR, $CAT, $CMI, $EROC, $WULF, $CLSK, $IREN, $CIFR, $BWEN, $FLNC, $SMERY, $BIP, $PRIM, $HUT, $BTDR, $MARA, $AEHR, $ASML
