Ever wondered what $NBIS Token Factory could be valued at if we carved out just that piece of $NBIS and valued it at competitor parity with players like Fireworks and Baseten? Same managed inference, dedicated endpoints, post training, fine tuning, custom models and enterprise/agentic orchestration features but backed by Nebius’s own full stack AI cloud, their own physical infrastructure and rapidly expanding hardware capacity at that. Let's start with the math shall we. COMPETITOR BENCHMARKS: - Fireworks: 40T+ tokens/day, $1B+ annualized revenue, $17.5B last closed valuation and reportedly discussing $30B - $40B. - Baseten: approximately 40T - 50T tokens/day, reportedly $1B+ annualized revenue, $13B last closed valuation and reportedly approached at approximately $26B. - Together AI: approximately 13T tokens/day, more than $1.15B in annual bookings and an $8.3B valuation. Now compare that with $NBIS Token Factory. The publicly visible number is only around 50B tokens/day through OpenRouter. But Prosus alone has disclosed Token Factory workloads of up to 200B tokens/day through Nebius dedicated endpoints. And this is where the public numbers can badly understate the real business. Baseten shows roughly 368B tokens/day through OpenRouter, but says it processes 40T–50T tokens/day overall. (Based on Data recorded on 26th - 27th Oct) That means OpenRouter may represent less than 1% of Baseten’s actual production volume. If Nebius $NBIS has a similar public-to-private traffic ratio, its 51B visible tokens could imply roughly 3T-7T total tokens/day across serverless, dedicated endpoints and private enterprise workloads. Again that is an estimate, not a disclosed Nebius figure but it means Token Factory may already be at 6%-15% of Fireworks/Baseten scale despite only launching in November 2025. THE REVENUE MATH: Fireworks produces $1B+ in annualized revenue from 40T+ daily tokens. That implies blended monetization of approximately: $1B ÷ 365 ÷ 40T × 1M = approximately $0.068 per million processed tokens. The formula is: Annual revenue in billions = 0.365 × daily trillions of tokens × net revenue per million tokens. If $NBIS Token Factory reaches 45T tokens/day and monetizes at $0.08/M: 0.365 × 45 × $0.08 = approximately $1.31B ARR. At 50T/day and $0.09/M: 0.365 × 50 × $0.09 = approximately $1.64B ARR. Apply competitor-parity multiples of 20×-24×: - $1.31B × 20-22× = $26B-$29B - $1.64B × 22-24× = $36B-$39B That gives Nebius $NBIS Token Factory a reasonable three year competitor parity valuation of approximately $30B-$40B. So what should Token Factory be worth TODAY? Take a $35B midpoint three-year parity value and discount it at 30% annually: $35B ÷ 1.30 ^ 3 = approximately $15.9B today if competitor parity were guaranteed. But it is not guaranteed, so I'll probability weight it: - 60% probability of competitor parity: $35B - 30% probability of partial success: $10B - 10% probability of major underperformance: $2B The calculation: (60% × $35B + 30% × $10B + 10% × $2B) ÷ 1.30 ^ 3 = ~$11B today. That gives me a, risk adjusted CURRENT standalone valuation with a slight bullish bias of: $8B-$12B for Nebius $NBIS Token Factory. My midpoint is approximately $10B–$11B.

$IREN secures $363 million financing for high density AI compute assets The equipment financing agreement refinanced recently acquired, revenue-generating AI compute infrastructure, including GPU-based servers and networking systems deployed in high-density data center environments. Wingspire Equipment Finance completed the transaction with a six-lender group, led by major commitments from Eldridge Capital Management and Silver Point Capital.

All Material $NBIS quotes from $NVDA GTC Demand for Next Year "We have 1 GW worth of Veras coming next year, and already have significant demand for them." "We're hearing from customers about what they need late in '27, early in '28." Spot Pricing & Auction "We want at least half our capacity to be allocated to today's needs [vs. long-term contracts]." "A couple of hyperscalers asked us about our experiences [with spot pricing]." On Raising Capital "Capital is not a problem it's a task" "We have a pretty healthy balance sheet, we also have been more conservative here." "We are building a real company. Real company is measured by earnings. Healthy business is business that generates cash." "Last week, some of capital sources temporarily closed like asset-backed or debt market. But we are working now with customer advances and through other instruments will probably provide us with enough financing to build 1GW at least" Power "We have more than 5GW+ reserved already" Deployment Speed "DSX POD, for complete NVIDIA Vera Rubin AI factories built by partners inside modular containers, reduce deployment time from six months to as little as 14 days" "What used to take, in the case of Grace Blackwell, two hours to assemble one node [...] Now, Vera Rubin is 100% liquid cooled, and it takes less than five minutes to assemble it." Bottlenecks "GPUs will become the next bottleneck for the market. chips allocation is a concern."

"The direct-to-chip liquid cooling systems we design" 👀 Proprietary cooling system is just a hint of the engineering DNA $NBIS possesses.

If any of my bullposts the last few days prevented someone from selling $NBIS, I'm happy.

this 👀

there's a lot of FUD on the timeline this week, so i went back to my favorite story about how fear actually spreads. three schoolgirls on a train once started a run on a perfectly healthy bank. Japan, December 1973. one of the girls had just landed a job at Toyokawa Shinkin, a small local bank. her friends teased her that banks were "dangerous" (they meant robbers). it was a joke. she didn't take it as one. that night she asked a relative if it was true. The relative asked someone else, and the question passed from family to family, through a beauty salon, picking up weight as it went. Then a man borrowed a shop phone and told someone to withdraw 1.2 million yen for a routine payment. a listener overheard and assumed he knew something. now the rumor had a witness. a taxi driver later traced how the story changed in a single day: - afternoon: the bank "might be in danger" - 2:30: "it is in danger" - 4:30: "it will go into bankruptcy" - night: "its shutter will never be lifted tomorrow" nobody added a single fact, each retelling just dropped a hedge. by the end, more than a billion yen had walked out the door. The Bank of Japan rushed in cash and stacked it a meter high in front of the vault so people could see it with their own eyes. Police went looking for the crime behind the rumor and found nothing, the bank had done nothing wrong. so why does the scary version always win? because a loss feels about twice as strong as an equal gain. Psychologists have measured it for decades. Standing in line costs you an afternoon, but being the one who stayed could cost your savings. with that trade in front of you, running is the rational move, even when the bank is fine. which brings me to this week. the timeline is busy with stranded compute and debt stories. Those are fair questions, and some builders will deserve them, but the rumor doesn't check who, it hits everyone standing closest. so do what the Bank of Japan did, skip the gossip and go look at the vault. is the power actually connected? are the customers actually signed? is the money already there? those answers don't change because a post went viral. They change slowly, in substations and contracts and concrete. and that work didn't stop this week. If the cranes are still up, the racks are still getting installed and the demand that started all of this is still there. a run doesn't make a bank unsound, it just tests whether it was. Toyokawa survived, the ones building on solid ground usually do.

Nitronedge x @nebiusai Asset light model NitronEdge is a global artificial intelligence (AI), data analytics, and cybersecurity services company that designs, builds, secures, and runs agentic AI solutions for enterprise industries. Based in Dubai. $NBIS