NHL Hockey Analytics. Playoff odds, live in-game win probabilities, power rankings, etc.
Joined February 2015
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MoneyPuck.com retweeted
Hockey analytics is about measuring what we can observe, then using those measurements to infer what we actually care about.
But how do we know those inferences work?
A look at hockey analytics, testing, models, and the problem of measuring defense.
🔗 thefivehohl.substack.com/p/t…
MoneyPuck.com retweeted
Lot of comparables IMO
A site like Moneypuck.com gives you a closer look at each plays EV and a team that outplays the other often loses- like poker.
However, over the long run, more +EV totals will win, but sometimes goofy streaks can happen.
Example, a guy like Ovechkin may take a shot that has about a 7% to score.
He may go on a stretch where he takes 30 of these and not score.
And others where he scores on 25% of them.
The casual fan doesn’t get that he is playing well in both cases, but puck luck is real- just like poker.
MoneyPuck.com retweeted
MLSE CEO Keith Pelley said the Leafs next GM would have to be data-centric. Panthers AGM Sunny Mehta is at the forefront of analytics and was a renowned poker player/writer before joining pro sports. Here's the case for Mehta as the next Leafs GM. theleafsnation.com/news/the-…
MoneyPuck.com retweeted
Getting to the home stretch of the standings projection competition...
We're at the part of the year where fans gloat over what the models got wrong, so it's only fair to point out that every model is on track to beat the betting O/U, fan consensus, and average fan submission
MoneyPuck.com retweeted
The top 10 goalies in goals saved above expected per 60 mins (min. 30 games).
I think Jeremy Swayman's season for @NHLBruins has been a little overlooked (or maybe overshadowed by some other Eastern Conf. goalie performances).
via @MoneyPuckdotcom
MoneyPuck.com retweeted
If the Leafs lose to the Panthers in regulation tonight, their playoff odds drop to just 3.8%, per Moneypuck.
Definition of "Must-win." #LeafsForever
MoneyPuck.com retweeted
Congratulations Connor Hellebuyck
*puts nerd glasses on*
Reminder that “players you win with” or “playoff / big game performers” is merely a hindsight biased analysis that does not predict future performance in big games.
MoneyPuck.com retweeted
Dimitri has been doing amazing work during the Olympics with his scoring chance tracking and post-game notes.
I noticed there's a strong relationship between his scoring chances and my pre-game goal projections. Here's what that looks like for the group stage.
Wrote about today's Canada vs. Switzerland game on the Patreon Newsletter
The notable individual performances, the scoring chance data for both teams, and the notes I had while watching a game that was way more competitive than the final score
patreon.com/posts/canada-vs-…
MoneyPuck.com retweeted
Current men's tournament forecast. Slovakia now has a 53 percent chance to play a medal game.
Full forecast here: nytimes.com/athletic/interac…
MoneyPuck.com retweeted
Scott Arniel was asked if he thinks the team is better than their record: "It's funny, because the first 10 games we were showing a lot of red, but our record was real good. It wasn't a recipe that was going to have success for 82 games."
"Our last 10 games have been way better. The numbers have really improved defensively. The scoring part, the offence obviously needs continue to improve and get better, but I like more of how we're playing without the puck."
#NHLJets | @MoneyPuckdotcom
MoneyPuck.com retweeted
It has been a theme all season but still amazing to see how condensed the NHL standings are at this point in the season.
MoneyPuck.com retweeted
The Golden Knights asked me to leave their practice facility and revoked my credential because I asked one of their players about the Hockey Canada 5.
Their sensitivity underscores the dicey nature of the decision VGK and Carolina are facing.
My story:
nytimes.com/athletic/6656048…
MoneyPuck.com retweeted
Win = GFA > GAA. GAA is the goalie portion of their record.
GAA is shots against / hr times (1-sv%). Save% is the goalie portion of GAA.
Sv% = deltaSv% + expected Sv% (shot quality per shot).
dSv% = GSAx / shots against
All goalie stats are GSAx or dSV% with team fluff
