每日研究分析分享 📚天真相信幣圈努力會有回報🎯多年從事金融相關工作 由股市走到幣市 🕵🏻♂️熱愛投資和日本文化 🗼最愛的是 Aimer 🎶 只作個人投資思維紀錄, 非投資建議 0322.wrld🌎 陪你走過今浪牛市 0x032292🎭
Joined March 2022
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一人投機者 OneMan 🇭🇰 ⚯̫ retweeted
＜ライブレポート＞Aimer、原点の「ピアノと歌」で示したデビュー15周年＆独立後の現在地 billboard-japan.com/d_news/d…
一人投機者 OneMan 🇭🇰 ⚯̫ retweeted
Introducing Mini 2, the next-generation portable Starlink. Get up to 4.5 hours of connectivity on a single charge with the quick-swap battery, or plug in with USB-C.
With built-in Wi-Fi, all you need is a clear view of the sky to get online in 60 seconds.
Preorders are now open by invitation in the US. Be the first to know when it's available → starlink.com/mini-2
一人投機者 OneMan 🇭🇰 ⚯̫ retweeted
Wow, definitivamente Rosé si fue solo una One hit wonder porque el silencio de esa multitud es terrible.
No han pasado ni 2 años de APT y literalmente ya nadie recuerda su "viral" de tiktok.
La musica actual envejece terrible.
一人投機者 OneMan 🇭🇰 ⚯̫ retweeted
iPhone Duo简直是phone of meme。要壁纸的评论区👇
#jensen #JensenHuang
一人投機者 OneMan 🇭🇰 ⚯̫ retweeted
Elon Musk paid his ex-wife $4 million in 2012. Then he married her again, and in 2016 he paid her $16 million more. It started with a 22-year-old actress, a hotel room and a handshake instead of a ring.
In the video below, Talulah Riley tells what happened in the room that night, and why she said yes to a man she had known for ten days.
She was a young British actress. He was a tech guy nobody at her film premieres recognized.
On their first night he asked, very politely, if he could put his hand on her knee.
The next morning he asked her to breakfast. After breakfast he asked her to lunch. After lunch, dinner.
Then he invited her back to his hotel room to look at rocket videos. She assumed that was a line.
It wasn’t. He sat her down and showed her rocket videos.
A few days later he told her he didn’t want her to go home. He wanted to marry her. He apologized for not having a ring.
So they shook hands on it.
She says she thought that was simply how love worked. Her own father had told her mother he’d marry her at the end of their first date.
What she got next was not a fairy tale.
She moved straight into a house with his children. Tesla was days from running out of money. Every evening he came home and said tomorrow that’s it.
There was a website counting down the days until Tesla died. He was screaming in his sleep and trying to climb out of bed to escape something.
He gave her a way out. He told her this would be the hard path and she didn’t have to stay for it.
She stayed. She says she spent those years thinking she just had to keep this guy alive.
They married in 2010 and divorced in 2012. Musk paid her about $4 million.
A year later they married again. In 2016 they divorced for the second time, and this time it cost him about $16 million.
Around $20 million in total, for the same woman, twice.
Today she still talks about him with warmth, not bitterness.
So was it the money that ended it, or the rockets that never left the room?
Would you marry someone after ten days if they shook your hand instead of giving you a ring?
Follow me for more stories like this.
一人投機者 OneMan 🇭🇰 ⚯̫ retweeted
SpaceX did something on November 4 that most companies building AI infrastructure never bother to do. It sent its own people into an elementary school auditorium in Cochise, Arizona, put the numbers on the table and took questions from a packed room.
Riley Trettel, who leads energy and supercomputer development at SpaceX, said it plainly: "SpaceX is the owner, and with approval, will be the builder and the owner of the project long term."
Then he laid out what the county gets. Up to 40% off residential power bills for Sulphur Springs co-op members for the life of the project. $3.6 billion in new power lines paid by SpaceX and handed to the co-op, which takes on no debt. $30 to $100 million a year in new property tax, with a 20% cut in everyone else's county property taxes. Enough one-time sales tax to pay off the county jail bond. Dry cooling, so the whole campus uses about as much water as 20 to 30 homes. No gas turbines on site. Up to $50 billion invested and about 1,000 permanent jobs.
On the latest All-In, one of the hosts brought up the video of that night. "These two very bright, earnest people from SpaceX trying to explain how they're going to reduce electricity cost by 40%. They don't use water. They'll reduce property taxes by 20%." About Riley and Katie: "Good SpaceX employees. They should be proud of how they conducted themselves."
They were shouted over from the first slide. Months of headlines about data centers draining aquifers and spiking bills did that work before anyone walked in. Some residents stayed after the presentation to tell SpaceX they want it there. The county's planning and zoning hearing is December 9.
一人投機者 OneMan 🇭🇰 ⚯̫ retweeted
🚨 THE ECONOMIC BOOM THEY REFUSED TO TELL YOU ABOUT JUST EXPLODED INTO VIEW 🚨
While the entire country was screaming about races, polls, and midterm chaos… an absolute economic rocket was launching right under our noses. And almost NO ONE noticed.
Victor Davis Hanson just laid out the numbers that should have every American furious about the messaging failure:
🔥 165,000 NEW JOBS just dropped — they were projecting a pathetic 45,000 a month ago
🔥 Poverty rate crashed to an ALL-TIME LOW of 10.5%
🔥 Per capita family income hit a brand new RECORD of $87,000
🔥 GDP just revised UP to 3.4%… Atlanta Fed now says it could hit 5% by year-end
We are in the middle of a BOOM. And the only thing louder than the economy is the political fighting drowning it out.
Now compare that to 2022 when the red wave vanished:
📈 Stock market is a staggering 20,000 points HIGHER than when Biden “stopped the red wave”
📈 Family income is $14,000 higher than just four years ago
📉 Inflation was a brutal 9.1% record high in 2022… now nowhere near that
⛽ Gas on Election Day 2022 was $3.95–$4.05… today it’s $4.06 — basically identical
In 2022 the economy was a wreck, inflation was three times worse, GDP was weaker, people were furious… yet the political outcome was completely different.
So what changed?
The numbers got better. The messaging got worse. And the country was too busy fighting to notice the boom happening right in front of them.
This is the biggest missed opportunity heading into the midterms. The data was there the entire time.
Who was paying attention? 👀
(Share this before it gets buried.) 🔥📈💸
一人投機者 OneMan 🇭🇰 ⚯̫ retweeted
当全世界的聪明人都在为近 4 万亿美元市值灰飞烟灭捶胸顿足时，硅谷风投大佬 Chamath 却掏出放大镜，找到了一个真正决定 AI 巨头生死的命门。
这位硅谷老狐狸抛出了一个暴论：眼下整场 AI 博弈的胜负，全看一单买卖。他指的，正是马斯克的 SpaceX 和 Anthropic 签下的那份算力合同，里面藏着一个“双向 90 天随时解约”的条款。
这事还得从这周的政治海啸说起。美国中期选举共和党遭遇了水门事件以来最惨的溃败，连红了几十年的德州都翻蓝了。州长们听见“数据中心”四个字就像见了瘟神，因为选民们早就受够了：这些庞大的机房除了替科技巨头赚钱，留给当地人的只有昂贵的水电费和噪音。
各地要是真给新数据中心按下暂停键，算力供给立马就得卡脖子。
就在这个节骨眼，硅谷的阶级成分瞬间清晰了。手里有现成地盘和电力的微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊，外加马斯克的 SpaceX，成了紧俏的“房东”；而像 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 这种得急需算力来迭代大模型的实验室，说白了，只是群没有房产证的“租客”。
在 Chamath 看来，这直接把马斯克送上了牌桌的主位。
手握着庞大算力，一旦数据中心审批放缓导致算力紧缺，现货价格可能会翻倍甚至涨到三倍。如果现货暴涨让原有长约变成了亏本买卖，SpaceX 随时可能直接动用“提前 90 天解约”的条款撕毁老合同，把算力按现货价重新计价。
到那时候，急需算力续命的 Anthropic 除了当场滑跪、认下翻倍甚至三倍的高价，根本没有第二条路可走。
就在这两天的富达路演上，面对机构把 IPO 估值从 2 万亿美元狠砍到 1.2 万亿的“骨折价”，CEO 达里奥为了保住上市，硬是诚恳地向买方投资者连说了三次“谢谢”。现在就开始赔笑脸了，真等到马斯克拔电源那天，他们更是连谈判的筹码都没有。
更损的是，这一刀要是真捅下去，等于当场给其他“房东”上了一堂生动的现实主义扫盲课，启发它们重新盘算手里的算力到底是留给自己用，还是拿去放高价租。而那些“二房东”们，为了不被踢出局，只能咬碎后槽牙，不计代价地去抢购市面上残存的算力。
听到这儿，旁边的 Jason 赶紧踩了脚刹车。他反驳说，马斯克跟 OpenAI 的奥特曼确实仇深似海，但跟 Anthropic 团队的关系好得像蜜月期，而且 Anthropic 还是他未来搞太空数据中心的好搭档。就算现货涨上天，马斯克也未必会干出直接掀桌子按现货价宰客的事，大家坐下来谈个“中间价”才更像人话。
但 Chamath 显然不相信硅谷的塑料兄弟情：“这跟关系好不好无关，跟谁是好公司坏公司也无关。这就是一张算账的表格，表格会直接给出答案。”
在这场近 4 万亿美元灰飞烟灭的魔幻风暴里，所谓的科技宏大叙事，剥开来看依然是最朴素的包租公哲学：只要电表转得够快、现货涨得够狠，再美好的革命友谊，可能也熬不过一张 Excel 表格，和一纸短短 90 天的逐客令。
一人投機者 OneMan 🇭🇰 ⚯̫ retweeted
Don’t Strangle the Supply-Side Recovery
The case for another Federal Reserve rate increase is crumbling. Gasoline prices are falling. Some DRAM spot prices are retreating. Two-year inflation breakevens have dropped 20 basis points in three days to 2.18%. Yet the tightening debate remains trapped in yesterday’s inflation.
That is how policy mistakes happen.
Tariffs and chip shortages raise the price level. They do not automatically create permanently higher inflation. Once those increases enter the comparison base, their contribution to annual inflation fades.
A product that rises from $100 to $110 records ten percent inflation. If it stays at $110 a year later, inflation is zero. No rate increase is needed to make that arithmetic work.
As 2026’s price spikes roll out of the annual comparison in 2027, base effects will pull inflation lower, without another Fed hike.
Now add actual price declines. Gasoline and parts of the memory market are reversing earlier increases. Disinflation is not merely approaching. It is underway.
The bigger story is productivity. Strong productivity growth, falling unit labour costs and a strong jobs market describe an economy expanding its capacity, not simply overheating. Businesses can produce more, support higher wages and contain costs simultaneously.
These are the green shoots Trump’s supply-side agenda is designed to cultivate: stronger investment, greater productive capacity and non-inflationary growth. The test of that agenda is sustained improvement in output and costs, not whether every strong jobs report triggers another inflation scare.
Employment growth is not the enemy of price stability. Weak productivity is. Treating every sign of economic strength as excessive demand risks strangling the supply expansion that makes growth sustainable.
The bond market is delivering its own warning. Two-year breakevens approaching 2% undermine the argument that inflation expectations are becoming unmoored. In fact they’re negative for the year.
The Fed must explain what another hike would fix. Higher borrowing costs cannot repeal tariffs or manufacture chips. They can crush investment just as productive capacity begins delivering results.
Those demanding tighter policy carry the burden of proof.
Do not punish stronger supply for looking like stronger demand.
🤖 Made with AI
一人投機者 OneMan 🇭🇰 ⚯̫ retweeted
블랙록 래리 핑크 성님 등판 and said
"AI 데이터센터 안 지으면, 인플레 터지고 미국 경제 멸망함"
전 세계 돈줄 쥐고 흔드는 블랙록 $BLK 회장 래리 핑크가 블룸버그 나와서 속 시원하게 팩폭 날림.
요약하자면 "데이터센터 늦추면 경제 조진다"랑 "단타 치지 말고 가만히 있어라" 투 트랙임 ㅋㅋ
• 데이터센터 안 짓는 게 오히려 인플레 유발
지금 컴퓨팅 비용 존나 비싼데 데이터센터 증설 막으면 공급 부족해서 비용 안 떨어짐.
무조건 때려지어서 공급 늘려야 가격 내려간다는 논리.
게다가 미국 경제의 3분의 2가 빅테크 카펙스(CAPEX) 빨로 굴러가는데 이거 멈추면 미국 경제 자체가 골로 감 🤯
• 7조~9조 달러 쏟아부어야 할 판
미국이 AI 패권 유지하려면 하이퍼스케일러들이 최소 7~9조 달러는 박아야 함.
지역 주민들이 물 부족하다 전기 모자라다 반대하는 건 잘못된 선동 때문이고, 자체 전력 조달에 폐쇄형 냉각 시스템 돌리면 장땡임.
미국에서 규제 때리고 징징대면 캐나다, 인도, 아부다비 같은 곳에 AI 주도권 다 뺏긴다고 경고함.
• 선거철 노이즈 신경 끄고 본업 집중하자
중간선거 앞두고 일자리니 인플레니 공포 마케팅 오지는데,
선거 끝나면 장기적인 국가 경쟁력 챙겨야 함.
정치인들한테 국민들 진정시키고 희망 주는 리더십 발휘하라고 일침.
• 25년 동안 꿀빤 놈 vs 깝친 놈의 결말
시장 타이밍 맞추겠다고 깝치는 개미들한테 날린 팩폭 수치:
- 지난 25년간 S&P500 사두고 25년 내내 휴가 가서 쳐놀았다? -> 연복리 11% 쌉이득
- 그 25년 중에 단 '10일' 타이밍 놓쳐서 시장 빠져있었다? -> 수익률 6%로 반토막 뚝배기
- 6,300일 중 가장 많이 오른 40일 놓쳤다? -> 마이너스 수익률로 계좌 운지 😂
결론:
장기 인프라 투자 흐름은 거스를 수 없고,
하루이틀 시장 오르내리는 소음에 일희일비하면서 단타 칠 생각 말고 엉덩이 무겁게 버티는 놈이 결국 이긴다.
"Not financial advice"
一人投機者 OneMan 🇭🇰 ⚯̫ retweeted
独立して最初の一歩を、
踏み出せたのはあなたのおかげです。
大切な曲『のらねこ』を歌えて嬉しかった。
ほんとに、ほんとに嬉しかったよ。
あなたの元にちゃんとこの曲を、届けられる日が楽しみです。
来年9月から全国ホールツアーを回ります。
あなたに歌いに行きます。
楽しみにしています🐈⬛ Aimer
一人投機者 OneMan 🇭🇰 ⚯̫ retweeted
Long post worth the read. I have a close friend who flies private jets. He flew Lear 60 for over 15 years and now flies a Gulfstream. This is a copy and paste of his response to me asking him if he thought Ice was the issue.
“We always fly in ridiculous cold temperatures.”
“Usually you get the bad ice when the temperatures are like 0 to negative 20. Believe it or not, there's a point where it gets too cold for ice. At negative 40, you pretty much can't get ice. Besides that, the airplane is equipped with hot wings and hot tail.”
“I flew the Lear 60 for like 15 years. It's a no joke airplane and probably the most dangerous airplane I've ever flown. It has a super critical wing. The airflow has to be perfect. When it gets into rough air and turbulence, it will easily stall. It has stalled on me at 41,000 feet just because we got into some turbulence. (On the way to Palm Beach as a matter of fact. ) we recovered and got her flying again around 30,000 ft. Scary
But here's the problem. This airplane has a terrible coffin corner. (At high altitudes) what that means is, you fly in a really narrow window where if you lose 20 knots, it stalls. And if you gain 20 knots, it goes into overspeed. The air goes supersonic over the wing and it goes into a high speed stall, or worse, a Mach tuck.
So if you stall, the normal recovery is to push the yoke forward to lower the nose and gain air speed again. At low altitude, you can push really hard and recover quickly. But in the 60... if you push hard, it will gain air speed and go into a high speed stall, it doesn't take much. It's very sensitive. The 60 has super short wings that don't make much lift. So then you high speed stall, and the computer is yelling at you... OVERSPEED! So then you pull back and enter a low speed stall. And you go back and forth trying to keep it in the air speed window.
This whole thing is pretty scary. And you should recover basically by using your finger tips using super small corrections. You can't over do it. If you try to muscle the recovery, she gets mad and will become unrecoverable. If she enters a mach tuck. You're done.”
“I taught the Lear 60 to other pilots and mentored them. I told them... this airplane has a soul and it's trying to kill you. Do not ever try to top the weather. Don't go over a thunderstorm. Go around it. If it means a half hour longer, then do it. Going over the thunderstorm will go into turbulence that you might not recover from.
These pilots went right over a thunderstorm. I think it stalled which caused them to drop down into the thunderstorm and ended up in mach tuck. They picked up so much speed that it ripped off the horizontal stabilizer. At that point... chuck Yeager can't fix it.
These same pilots did something similar a couple months ago. ATC got mad at them. They poked the bear one too many times.
This is not a beginner airplane. The Gulfstream would never do this. It has HUGE margins of error and won't stall like that. But then again... it's got HUGE wings. It's a pussy cat.
The Gulfstream is like driving a 4 wheeler. The Lear 60 is like riding a uni cycle.”
