Venture capital. Value investing. Technology. USC Marshall MBA. Recovering CFA. I tweet about VC, stocks, and all things finance. Europe born.
Joined May 2010
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Nick retweeted
ELECTION DAY FUTURES UPDATE:
1. S&P 500: -0.9%
2. Dow Jones: -0.5%
3. Nasdaq 100: -1.9%
4. Crude Oil: -1.0%
5. Gold: +0.7%
The Nasdaq 100 is now trading at its lowest level since July 26th.
Markets are pricing-in a near-certain Democrat "sweep."
Hearing reports that the <redacted> camp is stressing hard about the turnout today, still early but it looks like a hard shift to <redacted> on election day. A lot of <redacted> voters are staying home, moving the race to <redacted>. <redacted> wave incoming!
Nick retweeted
People who have been in research fields develop a felt sense that most "research" (in almost any field that isn't exactingly technical) is research theater, and many superstar careers enjoy star status not because of a unique connection to the truth but because of a unique connection with an audience. No one really has the time or stature to, from a position of objectivity and trust, bring popular researchers to heel. But it will get increasingly hard to hide from serious critique. The machines can do critique now, at the level of depth and rigor previously only possible for the academically deranged. We're going to have to revise a lot of what we "know" about the world that isn't really knowledge but is actually just received popular consensus - like floating voltages without grounding wires. The grounding wires are coming.
Tyler Cowen:
'I am not even sure what to say at this point. We need a radical revaluation of this work, and of the associated policy arguments. More generally, this is only a single step in the story of how AI is going to revise economic science, and indeed past research more generally. As I stress in many of my recent talks, there will be significant gains and losses in status, with the losses often outweighing the gains. I see this as one of those cases.'
RIP Patrick Stewart. You reminded me of my maternal granddad. I watched Star Trek: TNG a few years ago, just after his passing. It meant a lot to me.
Nick retweeted
this might be my last normal tweet before biotech goes vertical
i'm not a whistleblower. I don't work at Lilly, Novo or any of the big labs
but there is a massive shift happening in human biology right now.
it's sitting in press releases and almost nobody reads them
the last 6 months alone:
- a once-daily pill roughly doubled median survival in metastatic pancreatic cancer (13.2 vs 6.6 months)
- a one-time gene editing infusion cut hereditary angioedema attacks 87%, and 62% of patients stayed attack-free and off all other prevention for 6 months
- a one-time gene edit for cholesterol dropped LDL up to 62%, and it held for over a year
- a personalized mrna vaccine beat keytruda alone in a 1,137 patient melanoma phase 3
- retatrutide hit ~28% weight loss in a phase 3
- an ai-designed drug entered phase 3
- a pill that regrows hair passed its second phase 3
- an immunotherapy that could let some rectal cancer patients skip surgery, chemo and radiation just got fda approved
- a man lived 271 days off dialysis on a pig kidney
- human cells were caught passing chromosome-sized chunks of DNA to their neighbors, and it changes how the neighbors behave
we are on the verge of an era where the human body is a software problem and the update cycle gets shorter everyday
stick around, it's going to get weird
bio/acc
Nick retweeted
And coal. Lots of coal. So much coal that China will, again, consume this year more than every other nation combined.
Nick retweeted
I absolutely cannot afford to stay, given that you and your corrupt union overlords are planning another "one-time" tax in two years. This is not a 5% tax, it's a full confiscation of all my liquid assets. It's going to bankrupt founders without full liquidity.
Nick retweeted
Very funny that billionaires are like “I am leaving”. And Zucman’s response is “sorry no, my theory doesn’t allow this”
Nick retweeted
France should absolutely institute the proposed Zucman tax so that hundreds of papers can be written about its consequences.
The key problem is this:
Why would billionaires permanently leave California in response to a one-time tax owed if they lived there on January 1, 2026?
It would only make sense for them to leave if the tax becomes annual.
But if the tax becomes annual, it would also generate revenue annually — by virtue of, well, being annual.
Nick retweeted
TLDR; we will probably never get another ARR number from Anthropic, which is healthy. Should force the market to move away from extreme focus on Anthropic/OpenAI ARR numbers to hyperscale growth rates, which are a much better metric for AI at this point given they capture Muse, Grok, Gemini and Open-Source.
Anthropic FCF positive in Q3 and reaccelerating in October on Opus 5.5 per third party data. Roadshow in several weeks will happen after this has been widely confirmed. Unit economics much better than expected given positive FCF with 75% of their compute going to training. All per public reporting.
OpenAI continuing to grow at the same pace per Sarah Friar interview after they took share vs. Anthropic in Q3. Means the sum of Anthropic/OpenAI growth is accelerating from the Q3 pace. OpenAI probably hits FCF positive in the next few months.
Open-source growing much faster than either Anthropic or OpenAI. Modal tripled since May and is 15x YoY per yesterday’s announcement. Open-source tokens generate more revenue and profit for the hyperscalers/neoclouds than frontier tokens. *Every* open source inference cloud I am aware of is growing faster both sequentially and YoY than either Anthropic or OpenAI. And their combined compute spend is becoming material.
Third party data pointing to hyperscalers continuing to accelerate in Q3. All report in the next two weeks. Acceleration should continue in Q4 and Q1 as installed base of compute slowly reprices higher closer to spot and new capacity comes online at higher prices. Continued acceleration in hyperscalers should help address external funding concerns.
10 year yield down in a straight line over the last 24 hours.
Some risk of escalation in Iran next few days, but earnings and mid-terms probably outweigh taking an ultra long-term view and looking out 30 days.
Biggest risk imo remains cyber and OpenAI/Anthropic dominating the model layer. Fragmentation, competition and lower margins at the model layer are good for everyone else in the ecosystem and for America.
Slower for longer is much better than an overbuild and an actual bubble.
Nick retweeted
We've had two hot inflation prints in a row, and yet rates have been sliding.
The entire market is all about the AI trade, and the recent jitters about Anthropic's revenue numbers matter way more than some random government datapoint right now.
Nick retweeted
It is amazing how much NYT writers hate the United States until they go see the other side
I visited Uganda amid an ongoing reign of terror and saw that, for all my criticism of traditional U.S. foreign policy&human rights, it's now immeasurably worse. Trump/Rubio's withdrawal from public diplomacy leaves China, unchecked abuse & surveillance.
nytimes.com/2026/10/08/opini…
Nick retweeted
If Anthropic's IPO is successful there's going to be billions in funding flowing to organisations that focus on protecting the 'psychological safety' of sentient machines, shrimp welfare, & other anti-human projects. We're not ready for this.
Nick retweeted
"normies have no clue how fast AI is progressing" has expanded to include normie claudes
