JamesFairMover

Latest in energy: 1. Aramco plans to maximize oil production this quarter -- CEO Amin Nasser said the company will push output as high as possible, with Saudi exports back around prewar levels after making greater use of alternative routes. Aramco’s 3Q downstream earnings also jumped sharply on stronger refining margins. 2. The IEA sees the steepest annual fall in global LNG supply on record -- supply is forecast to drop around 3%, or almost 20 bcm, in 2026, largely because of the disruption to Gulf exports through Hormuz. European storage is also entering winter at its lowest level since 2013. 3. Russia’s YANOS refinery was damaged in another major drone attack -- the Yaroslavl governor said refinery infrastructure was hit and a fire broke out during an attack in which 124 drones were intercepted across the region. Two refinery employees were injured. The extent of the impact on processing remains unclear. 4. XRG is buying into Australian LNG -- ADNOC’s international investment arm agreed to pay $1.45bn for Shell’s 16.67% stake in the North West Shelf project, giving it its first Australian asset and another source of LNG outside the Gulf. 5. Germany is locking in more gas-fired generation -- regulators awarded support to 11 projects totaling about 5.2 GW, including RWE and LEAG developments. The plants will receive capacity payments for 15 years and are intended to provide backup when wind and solar output is weak. 6. Cheniere is reportedly discussing a long-term Bangladesh #LNG deal -- Bloomberg says talks involve roughly 1 mtpa for at least a decade, as Bangladesh looks for more secure supply after this year’s LNG shock. 7. Energy security remains the dominant theme at ADIPEC -- executives are talking increasingly about redundancy, storage and diversified supply routes rather than treating disruption as a temporary shock. #OOTT

Next week is packed for energy markets. A few dates to watch: Sun, Nov. 1 -- OPEC+ Key producers meet to review market conditions and output policy. With Brent still near $120, the question is whether the group stays the course or starts signaling a future increase. Mon, Nov. 2 -- Saudi Aramco 3Q With oil prices elevated through much of the quarter, focus will be on cash generation, infrastructure disruption, overseas storage and the outlook for exports. Early next week -- Aramco December OSPs Asian buyers will be watching for another sizeable cut to Arab Light as freight and logistics costs remain unusually high. Mon, Nov. 2 -- Marathon Petroleum Another read on just how much exceptional refining margins boosted 3Q earnings -- and whether management sees those margins lasting. Mon-Thu, Nov. 2-5 -- ADIPEC, Abu Dhabi Ministers, CEOs and investors gather for four days, with energy security, Hormuz, LNG, refining and investment likely to dominate the agenda. Tue, Nov. 3 -- US midterms Potentially the biggest geopolitical catalyst. Markets will be watching whether the result changes the policy backdrop around Iran ahead of any possible post-election escalation. Thu, Nov. 5 -- ConocoPhillips Another major upstream earnings read as $100+ oil feeds through into cash flow. OPEC+, Aramco, ADIPEC and the US midterms all land within a few days of each other. Plenty here that could move oil well beyond the normal weekly data cycle. #OOTT #OPEC

Latest in energy: 1. Qatar extends LNG disruption deeper into winter QatarEnergy’s force majeure on supplies to Italy’s Edison now runs through the end of December, with another three cargoes affected. The extension keeps Europe reliant on replacement #LNG as winter demand builds. 2. Ras Tanura back in focus after reported attack A fire near Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura complex was contained following an attack, with the extent of any operational impact still unclear. The Houthis separately said they had targeted the facility. 3. Iran steps up pressure on shipping through Hormuz Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority says COSCO-linked vessels will face legal action from Nov. 1 over alleged transit violations, after enforcement measures against at least seven ships. 4. European gas hedging hits a record Open interest in ICE #TTF options exceeded 3 million contracts on Oct. 23, up 33% from a year earlier. Combined TTF futures and options open interest also reached a record 5.9 million contracts. 5. US LPG exports face another operational constraint Energy Transfer has declared force majeure affecting operations tied to a compressor failure, adding another potential logistics constraint as global #LPG supply remains tight. 6. Bolivia opens the door to gas imports Bolivia has authorized companies and individuals to import natural gas and LNG for their own consumption or power generation under its energy-emergency framework -- a significant shift for a country historically known as a regional gas exporter. 7. Freeport LNG feedgas remains elevated Feedgas into Freeport was running around 1.9 Bcf/d on Oct. 26, above its 30-day average of about 1.64 Bcf/d, supporting US LNG export availability at a time of strong European demand. 8. Energy prices are broadly lower today Oil and refined-product benchmarks are mostly in the red, with crude easing alongside softer near-term geopolitical risk. #OOTT