Hi! This is a hate-free zone, where I research Memory, Semis, Power, Robots, Space, data centers, and aligned areas.
Houston
Joined March 2009
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Top 10 VC Firms (Technology & Innovation)
1) Andreessen Horowitz {@a16z}
- Al, Enterprise, AI $90.0B
2) Insight Partners {@insightpartners}
- Growth Software, Al, Data $90.0B
3) Sequoia Capital {@sequoia}
- Technology, Consumer, Enterprise $56B
4) General Catalyst {@generalcatalyst}
Al, Healthcare, Fintech $43B
5) Lightspeed {@lightspeedvp}
- Enterprise, Consumer, Al $40B
6) Thrive Capital {@ThriveCapital}
- Al, Enterprise Software $36.8B
7) Index Ventures {@IndexVentures}
- Al, SaaS, Marketplaces $35B
8) Accel {@Accel}
- Al, Enterprise, Consumer $30B
9) Bessemer Venture Partners {@BessemerVP}
- Cloud, Al, Enterprise $20B
10) Khosla Ventures {@khoslaventures}
- Al, Climate Tech, Deep Tech $17B
Agreed. 2027 will be a good year for photonics.
Mark my words.
2027 will be a MONSTER year for PHOTONICS.
The AI buildout is creating a massive bottleneck: moving enormous amounts of data between GPUs at higher speeds while consuming less power.
Photonics will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI revolution.
Here are the 7 layers of photonics and the stocks to watch:
1. Materials & Wafers:
$AXTI $LWLG $IQE
2. Manufacturing Equipment:
$AMAT $LRCX $VECO $ONTO $MKSI
3. Lasers & Light Sources:
$COHR $MTSI $LASR
4. Silicon Photonics Foundries:
$TSEM $GFS $UMC
5. Testing & Packaging:
$AEHR $FORM $TER $AMKR
6. Optical Components & Transceivers:
$POET $AAOI $LITE $OPTX $LPTH
7. High-Speed Networking:
$CRDO $MRVL $ANET $CIEN $NOK $GLW $AVGO
The next generation of AI winners won't just be the companies building the GPUs.
They'll be the companies connecting them at the speed of light.
Bookmark this post. We'll revisit it in 2027.
A well used 55 seconds to listen to Dam’s take on water usage by data centers
Sam Altman on AI and water:
“For every 38,000 ChatGPT queries, that’s the same amount of water used to produce a single almond in California.”
“People eating 12 almonds at a time don’t feel like they’re doing something horrible from a water perspective.”
“Modern, very large data centers use roughly the same amount of water as an office building.”
“That’s been a robust meme and difficult to disprove, but I don’t think it holds up to any scrutiny.”
Interested in the latest with ai/tech and business?
Follow @GeniusGTX and never fall behind.
I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.
Cybersecurity will compete with Robotics in 2027 for the first-place position in investing …
"It's going to get worse before it gets better," says cybersecurity expert @C_C_Krebs on AI & recent hacks: cnb.cx/4BoP0SM
Steven Cress has been a phenomenal success at Seeking Alpha.
Tax-Loss Harvesting 2026: 3 Tech Stocks To Sell And 3 Strong Buys To Consider $RGTI #investing #economy #trading seekingalpha.com/article/495…
Jim P., down in Texas retweeted
20 AI stocks with massive projected EPS growth next year!
1. $SPCX | SpaceX | +24,472%
2. $AAOl | Applied Optoelectronics | +576%
3. $AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | +107%
4. $SMTC | Semtech | +84%
5. $BE | Bloom Energy | +82%
6. $CLS | Celestica | +78%
7. $MRVL | Marvell Technology| +74%
8. $NVDA | NVIDIA +72%
9. $GEV | GE Vernova | +68%
10. $AVGO | Broadcom | +66%
11. $LITE | Lumentum | +65%
12. $CIEN | Ciena +65%
13. $WDC | Western Digital | +61%
14. $ALAB | Astera Labs | +58%
15. $MOD | Modine Manufacturing | +55%
16. $CRDO | Credo Technology | +53%
17. $TTMI | TTM Technologies | +52%
18. $COHR | Coherent | +49%
19. $PLTR | Palantir Technologies | +45%
20. $AMAT Applied Materials | +44%
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Love this
20 AI stocks with massive projected EPS growth next year! 📈
1. $SPCX | SpaceX | +24,473%
2. $AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics | +577%
3. $AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | +108%
4. $SMTC | Semtech | +83%
5. $BE | Bloom Energy | +82%
6. $CLS | Celestica | +76%
7. $MRVL | Marvell Technology | +73%
8. $NVDA | NVIDIA | +71%
9. $GEV | GE Vernova | +67%
10. $AVGO | Broadcom | +66%
11. $LITE | Lumentum | +65%
12. $CIEN | Ciena | +65%
13. $WDC | Western Digital | +61%
14. $ALAB | Astera Labs | +59%
15. $MOD | Modine Manufacturing | +56%
16. $CRDO | Credo Technology | +54%
17. $TTMI | TTM Technologies | +51%
18. $COHR | Coherent | +49%
19. $PLTR | Palantir Technologies | +45%
20. $AMAT | Applied Materials | +44%
DRAM still reigns …
If you’re a memory investor, you’ve got to read this report!!
Micron just held its tech webinar today and one line should stop every memory bear in their tracks…Micron expects the shortage to last at least two more years and it can't see when supply and demand will balance.
The reason is that every wave of AI eats more memory than the last. Training took HBM per GPU up 3.6x from H100 to B300. Inference doubled memory per server in three years. AI agents are growing context about 30x a year. And robotaxis will need 10x+ the DRAM of today's cars.
The roadmap micron showed earlier is built for it. 1-delta DRAM ramps in 2H27 with ~25% better density. G11 NAND crosses 400 layers in 2027 at ~2x G9's density. And by 2028, vHBM stacks memory directly on top of the processor, the shortest path to compute that exists.
We know Samsung and CXMT push 4F2, Micron says it's a dead end and is going straight to 3D DRAM. If they're right, their rivals are spending billions down the wrong road. We think they're right. Overweight $MU…
This is a logical extension. The hyperscalers are starting to move like quasi-governmental organizations. The question, always, is “Is this a good thing.”
Optical is still winning
$LITE $AAOI $SIVE $IQE $CRDO
WOW. Do you get how BULLISH this is?
Bloomberg Intelligence (via Yole + CignalAI):
322x.
Scale-up optical engines: $279M in 2026 → $90B in 2030.
OCS → $8B by 2030.
Google is already outsourcing. Copper is dead at these densities. Optics is the new bottleneck.
Pure leverage:
• $LITE / $COHR — lasers & engines.
• $AAOI — high-volume modules.
• $IQE — the wafers.
• $SIVE — pure-play photonics.
• $CRDO — the DSPs/SerDes next to every engine.
This is the last real picks-and-shovels setup in AI infrastructure.
Position accordingly, you will not regret it.
PS: Credits to @pequityresearch and @ChillBanking for sharing.
Jim P., down in Texas retweeted
The HBM market is setting up for one of the BIGGEST supply demand imbalances in the entire AI buildout.
Just look at what Bloomberg Intelligence is projecting. HBM shipments could grow from roughly 2.5 billion GB in 2025 to nearly 18 billion GB by 2030. That's approximately a 7X increase in volume in just FIVE years. Normally, when an industry dramatically increases production, you would expect prices to decline as supply catches up with demand. Yet Bloomberg's projections are showing the complete opposite. Average HBM prices are expected to climb from roughly $13 per GB in 2025 to $35 per GB by 2030. Think about how insane that is. We're potentially looking at a market where shipments increase roughly 7X while average selling prices nearly triple.
And this is exactly why I'm so bullish on memory. Every new generation of AI accelerators requires increasingly sophisticated memory to deliver the bandwidth needed to keep those GPUs running efficiently. And as models become larger, inference workloads explode, and autonomous agents and physical AI begin scaling, the demand for memory is only going to accelerate. What makes HBM particularly interesting is that supply cannot simply expand overnight. Manufacturing HBM requires advanced packaging, complex stacking processes, enormous capital investment, and significant production capacity. Not to mention, expanding HBM production can consume manufacturing capacity that would otherwise go toward conventional DRAM, potentially tightening supply across the broader memory market as well. This is why I continue to believe memory is one of the most attractive opportunities in the AI infrastructure trade.
South Korea's stock market is in FREE FALL and the panic surrounding the memory trade is getting completely out of control.
The KOSPI just plunged another 7%, bringing its decline to roughly 40% from its June highs. Samsung and SK Hynix are getting absolutely destroyed, and the selling pressure is spreading across the entire AI infrastructure trade. I went on Making Money with @cvpayne today to talk about the memory selloff and why I believe investors are losing sight of what's actually happening in this industry.
And now we're getting ANOTHER warning out of South Korea. A new column published by Maeil Business Newspaper is raising concerns that the global memory industry could face oversupply beginning in 2029 as new manufacturing capacity starts coming online. The argument is that South Korea has become increasingly dependent on Samsung and SK Hynix, and that the country has roughly two to three years to develop other growth industries before the memory cycle potentially reverses. Now, I think this is something investors should absolutely pay attention to but here's where I disagree with the panic.
We're talking about a potential oversupply problem in 2029 while the industry is still struggling to meet demand TODAY. Memory manufacturers are already dealing with capacity constraints, AI customers are securing long term supply agreements, and demand for HBM continues to grow as Nvidia $NVDA and other AI chipmakers push toward increasingly memory intensive systems. And people need to understand that building additional manufacturing capacity doesn't automatically mean we're going to have an oversupply problem. These fabs take years to construct, equipment needs to be installed, production yields need to improve, and manufacturers still have to qualify their products with customers. Not to mention, HBM manufacturing is substantially more complicated than traditional DRAM, and not all additional memory capacity can immediately be used to produce the most advanced AI memory products.
Now, could we eventually see oversupply in 2029? ABSOLUTELY. Memory is a cyclical industry and I've never argued that these companies will enjoy record pricing and margins forever. But there's a massive difference between acknowledging that possibility and acting like the memory cycle is already over. I still believe the fundamentals of the memory trade remain incredibly strong, especially for companies positioned to benefit from HBM and the broader AI infrastructure buildout. Bullish on memory and if you want to see how I’m investing through this selloff and check out my full portfolio below. link.milkroad.com/tx5qip
A generational copper shortage is bubbling … Can you hear me now? 😁
We don't have enough copper.
Global grid investment is expected to grow 4.4% annually through 2035.
Meanwhile, AI-driven copper demand is expected to grow ~15% annually through 2030.
At the same time, global copper production is expected to peak this year.
In other words, demand is surging while supply is increasingly unable to keep up.
Higher copper prices are a mathematical certainty.
We don't own enough copper for what's coming.
Stay calm. Be confident. The buildout continues …
JP Morgan Raises 2027 Data Center CAPEX to +70% yoy growth from +50% prior
“Given the latest data center capex
forecast for the top four U.S. CSPs, we remain bullish on coverage companies that directly support AI infrastructure demand, particularly across networking. In our view, networking growth should track even stronger, given its increasing mix of spend and its role as a gating factor for high-end compute performance” $CRDO $LITE $COHR
Copper Is the new gold.
We need to mine as much copper in the next 18 years as we have mined in the past 10,000 years, which is 700-800 million tonnes... and that's without the AI demand.
Including AI demand, @BMO estimates we need ~35,000 tonnes of copper per gigawatt of installed data centre capacity... And according to S&P, by 2030, installed data centre capacity in the US is expected to reach 152 GW (~62 GW today).
