Asymmetric bets, mom & value, preferably uncorrelated to the major markets, mostly small cap or even smaller
Joined May 2022
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Current allocation:
30% gold via miners and tiny bit of silver
15% long volatility via market makers $FLOW, $virt and $abca.pa
55% global diversified microcaps
>30% short cash
Rules of thumb so far meaning sometimes I wait to rebalance when I want to be overweight certain assets.
Litigation finance didn't provide any diversification benefit. Still holding $BCHT and $BUR but it doesn't get its own fixed allocation bucket no more.
Free data 👀👀
If you're out there building agentic agents and algos you know how expensive data is.
23 years of 1 minute data is free from @UArkansas.
API is rate limited to 300rpm.
@MrMilkTrading
hfdatalibrary.com
Easy to understand and even easier to do. An idea that fits on one sheet of paper can't be that complex. 😉
Jokes aside Fischer Black also developed the foundations of the option pricing formula with Myron Scholes but only Merton/Scholes received the Nobel prize bc Black had already passed away.
Found this "old" Nomura presentation on factor-based portfolio construction using augmented Black–Litterman to combine multiple investment signals, account for forecast uncertainty, and control unintended factor exposures
nomura.com/events/global-qua…
A fairly likely scenario but you don't hear about it but why?
Probably not a popular opinion which could get an author in trouble.
A good guess of how the immediate future might look like is the recent past.
That's how I imagine the work of natgas analyst. 👇 A mix of metereologist and supply/demand analysis of natgas.
My guess is that this is the basis for the work of the electricity traders ie short term supply/demand of different means of electricity production. Maybe our pro electricity trader wants to comment. @stromhandler
Manual solutions are the best!
What the hell? Are they expecting a world war or what?
BREAKING: Australia urges all its citizens to stockpile canned food and bottled water to prepare for emergencies, per Yahoo News Australia.
It comes after the UK urged the public to stock up on three days' worth of supplies amid the growing threat of war last week.
Japan, Germany, Sweden and Norway have also told its citizens to prepare for emergencies.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The advice in the Yahoo News Australia article came from Australian Red Cross director Nichola Krey, not the Australian government. She said Australia is "not at immediate threat of war" and pointed to natural hazards instead. au.news.yahoo.com/aussies-urged-…
phoenix retweeted
All people are smart. One part before and the other afterwards.
Thank you @utopia_escape! Wouldn't have sized $Tnz.to without your TTF analysis.
#TTF continuing to spike to new cycle highs. Currently aiming for 100-130 euro by end of the year.
Nothing is solved here, and unless the war ends in say, August, industrial demand destruction will just be poverty with extra steps.
First there were fears that AI could make cybersecurity obsolete just like other fields of software.
Now it looks like AI is increasing the demand for cyber security. 🤔
$BUG is now outperforming $SOXX at more than 75% YTD.
Our cybersecurity analysts comment on the potential AI model revenue from cybersecurity and how the security market could be divided between AI labs and incumbent security platforms like $CRWD.
fundaai.substack.com/p/colum…
Great invention and this is just the prototype.
🇲🇽 A MEXICAN TEENAGER BUILT A FIRE EXTINGUISHER THAT USES SOUND INSTEAD OF WATER OR CHEMICALS
A student created “Vortex Tech,” a portable prototype that uses low-frequency sound waves around 30 Hz to disrupt the air feeding small flames.
In tests, it put out small fires in roughly 5 to 8 seconds.
She built it with her adviser and uncle after getting inspired by a sonic-cannon concept.
It’s still an experimental prototype for small fires, but a teenager from Mexico turned bass into a fire extinguisher 😮
Writer: Sol
That would be funny 😉
Nicki Minaj Floated As Press Secretary Replacement By White House Staffers tmz.com/2026/10/25/nicki-min…
I think tankers are one of the biggest opportunities currently as the rates are 30x before the war so everyday they stay that high tanker stocks price that in.
At the same time it'll be a great short sometime soon. Main price trigger is hormuz and then the looming over capacity. 👇
phoenix retweeted
Started with $1,000, now managing $5M for other people, and I’m 22.
Anything is possible if you are lying
All this AI capex is definitely leading somewhere useful. 😂😂
"Austrian painter reacts to the AFD"
youtu.be/_oR2SgGvpzo?is=kgiG…
Best X innovation this year was the automated translation function. It allows you to follow accounts that speak in foreign tongues.
So it merely translates literally which can be confusing:
"A good decision can lose money. A bad decision can make it. One hand proves almost nothing either way."
A lot of the wisdom of pro poker applies to investing as well.
I played poker for a living before I did this. It taught me something I use every week.
A good decision can lose money. A bad decision can make it. One hand proves almost nothing either way.
So I grade the decision I made, not the result of the week. When did a losing result teach you the most about a decision you made?