If you're interested in NZ politics, polling and elections you're in the right place. #nzpol
Joined July 2025
- Tweets227
- Following93
- Followers88
- Likes161
TheProgressReport retweeted
yes thepost.co.nz/election-dashb… (no paywall)
TheProgressReport retweeted
You can see live electorate results ordered by margin on our results page - which isn't pay-walled:
TheProgressReport retweeted
Hello and welcome to election night!
The Post will have live election results from every booth in the country + the best live blog.
We've matched 85% of the booths from the last election too so you can see in great detail the like-for-like swing, if there is any.
TheProgressReport retweeted
The Reid Research poll five weeks before the 2023 election had National at 40 percent.
This time, 25.9 percent.
TheProgressReport retweeted
If you feed the TVNZ/1 News poll figures into an MMP calc while assuming TPM win just one seat, instead of six, bloc maths are:
- Nat/ACT/NZF: 57
- Lab/Grn/TPM: 53
This leaves neither side able to govern without Opportunity.
TheProgressReport retweeted
New Westminster MRP:
Labour: 22% / 217 seats
Conservative: 20% / 151 seats
Reform UK: 22% / 127 seats
Lib Dem: 11% / 72 seats
Green: 10% / 30 seats
SNP: 3% / 28 seats
Plaid Cymru: 1% / 3 seats
Others: 3% / 3 seats
Restore Britain: 7% / 1 seat
Via: Electoral Calculus / PLMR / Find Out Now MRP.
Fieldwork 23-30 June 2026
n=5,545
Vote share and seat projection with tactical voting
TheProgressReport retweeted
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:
➡️ REF: 26% (-1)
🌹 LAB: 24% (+4)
🌳 CON: 18% (-1)
🟢 GRN: 13% (-1)
🔶️ LDEM: 11% (-1)
🟣 RSB: 3% (+1)
From @Ipsos_in_the_UK
From 25th - 30th June
Changes with 20th May
TheProgressReport retweeted
Remember when 30% was the floor for National? They haven't been above it since March.
If Opportunity keep on posting results like 4.6% they'll be invited to the minor party debates.
TheProgressReport retweeted
This is one of those 'there's no smoke without fire' stories. @coughlthom indicates something big could be up.
Christopher Luxon evaded MP who tried to tell him of flagging support, faces possible challenge this fortnight – sources, via @nzherald nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/c…
TheProgressReport retweeted
I'll be among the guests in the all new Tally Room livestream on SA election night for half an hour, see tallyroom.com.au/64630
Will be a link from my web coverage to this.
TheProgressReport retweeted
INBOX: National select its 2023 Auckland Central candidate to go up against Brooke van Velden in Tāmaki.
TheProgressReport retweeted
New poll on Labour's capital gains tax, from Horizon:
41 percent in favour (21% strongly)
39 percent opposed (25% strongly)
Those 18-35, and 75 plus more oppose; other age groups more in favour.
In NZ context, Labour would surely view a split result, this early, as a positive.
TheProgressReport retweeted
I got involved in Labour around the time of the asset sales (the power companies). Pretty funny to see the predictions play out exactly as called. We fucked around and found out. #nzpol
TheProgressReport retweeted
Willis office now say there has been some confusion here and she never spoke to the PM about his confidence and whether or not to keep her job.
Relevant portion of the standup below:
TheProgressReport retweeted
Who switched from Labour to National in 2023 and might be swinging back right now?
Typically - a white woman who owns her own home.
Grab from my new newsletter delving into new NZES data on swing voters.
TheProgressReport retweeted
Facing prospect of election defeat, Government tries to change the rules – Shane Te Pou nzherald.co.nz/nz/facing-pro…