Richard Crowe (@SocraticQuant) header
Richard Crowe (@SocraticQuant) profile picture

When something does not add up, you are missing data. Math works! If you are missing data, follow the money

Joined November 2022
Photo by Richard Crowe (@SocraticQuant)Photo by Richard Crowe (@SocraticQuant)Photo by Richard Crowe (@SocraticQuant)Photo by Richard Crowe (@SocraticQuant)Photo by Richard Crowe (@SocraticQuant)Photo by Richard Crowe (@SocraticQuant)Photo by Richard Crowe (@SocraticQuant)Photo by Richard Crowe (@SocraticQuant)Photo by Richard Crowe (@SocraticQuant)Photo by Richard Crowe (@SocraticQuant)
Richard Crowe retweeted
Dummy-mandering! Republicans tried to lock in more House seats by redrawing maps mid-decade (especially in Texas, Florida, and a few other states). The goal was to create extra Republican-leaning districts so they could hold their slim majority. To do that, mapmakers often had to **spread Republican voters thinner**. They took some voters out of very safe GOP districts and added them to neighboring districts that had been more competitive or Democratic-leaning. This is a classic gerrymandering move: you create more districts that lean your way, but you shrink the safety margin in the ones you already hold. Those “watered-down” districts were still expected to stay Republican under normal conditions. But in 2026 the political environment shifted against Republicans (driven by dissatisfaction with the economy, Trump’s approval, and other issues). Because the margins in many of those redrawn districts were no longer huge, the shift was enough to flip them to Democrats. At the same time, most of the new seats Republicans had drawn to flip blue failed to stay red. The result was a classic “dummymander”: an aggressive gerrymander that backfired. Instead of protecting or expanding the GOP House majority, the thinner margins left more seats vulnerable, and Democrats gained control of the chamber. Democrats also countered with their own redistricting in California, which offset some of the Republican gains. In short, Republicans diluted their own safe districts to chase more seats. When the wave came, those thinner districts washed away.
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Richard Crowe retweeted
Senator Grassley, there are SIXTEEN Judicial nominations pending and 10 stuck in your committee. Impressive work, Chairman Grassley. Slow-walking your own party’s judges is a special kind of leadership.
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Richard Crowe retweeted
Now is the time to start recruiting for Senatorial races in 2028. Here are the seats up for grabs: - Alabama (Katie Britt, R) - Alaska (Lisa Murkowski, R) - Arizona (Mark Kelly, D) - Arkansas (John Boozman, R) - California (Alex Padilla, D) - Colorado (Michael Bennet, D) - Connecticut (Richard Blumenthal, D) - Florida (Ashley Moody, R) - Georgia (Raphael Warnock, D) - Hawaii (Brian Schatz, D) - Idaho (Mike Crapo, R) - Illinois (Tammy Duckworth, D) - Indiana (Todd Young, R) - Iowa (Chuck Grassley, R) - Kansas (Jerry Moran, R) - Kentucky (Rand Paul, R) - Louisiana (John Kennedy, R) - Maryland (Chris Van Hollen, D) - Missouri (Eric Schmitt, R) - Nevada (Catherine Cortez Masto, D) - New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan, D) - New York (Chuck Schumer, D) - North Carolina (Ted Budd, R) - North Dakota (John Hoeven, R) - Ohio (Jon Husted, R) - Oklahoma (James Lankford, R) - Oregon (Ron Wyden, D) - Pennsylvania (John Fetterman, D) - South Carolina (Tim Scott, R) - South Dakota (John Thune, R) - Utah (Mike Lee, R) - Vermont (Peter Welch, D) - Washington (Patty Murray, D) - Wisconsin (Ron Johnson, R) PS: Every house seat is up for grabs
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Richard Crowe retweeted
If you had to pick one person responsible for the Electoral blow out, which one would you pick?
32%Trump
62%Thune
6%Johnson
72 votes • Final results
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Richard Crowe retweeted
In hindsight, it was a mistake for SpaceX to send them thousands of free Starlink dishes and millions of dollars a month in free service at the beginning of the war. What started as internet access for civilians became the backbone for autonomous killing drones. And now if they don’t support military use, they get skewered for it in the press.
Ukrainian President Zelensky on Elon Musk: "Having so much power concentrated in the hands of a very rich person is dangerous. Concentrating power in the hands of one person who doesn't have much money is also dangerous. That is the whole point of the separation of powers: making sure that everything is not concentrated in the hands of one person."
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Richard Crowe retweeted
Will you resign your membership in the republican party if the Senate selects @LeaderJohnThune as the minority leader?
49%Yes
16%No
35%Already Independant
37 votes • Final results
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Richard Crowe retweeted
The Least Effective Man in the World:
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Richard Crowe retweeted
The GOP used… Pro Forma sessions to stop Trump from making recess appointments. Blue Slip tradition to stop Trump from filling judicial positions. Zombie Filibuster to stop Trump from securing elections. All giving us the middle finger. They’re happy we lost. Treasonous.
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Find the oldest paper dictionary you can find, or even two or three of them, and hold them with the vigour of a prepper hoarding batteries and tinned foods. There is a war on language, and definitions are gradually and surreptitiously being eroded, bastardized and reimagined to limit your thinking and expression. #LinguisticEnclosure
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While we are looking at onshoring Rare Earth Element refining (majority now done by China) why do we not look at recycling spent Nuclear Power Plant fuel? Using spent nuclear fuel to generate electricity involves reprocessing and recycling the material to extract usable fissile elements, which can then fuel advanced nuclear reactors. Here’s a concise overview of what it would take, based on current technologies and challenges: 1. Reprocessing Technology Process: Spent nuclear fuel, which contains about 95% of its original energy potential, can be reprocessed to separate fissile materials like uranium-235 and plutonium-239 from fission products and other waste. Common methods include: PUREX (Plutonium-Uranium Extraction): A chemical process used in countries like France to extract uranium and plutonium for mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel, which can be used in conventional reactors. Pyroprocessing: An electrometallurgical method that separates uranium and transuranic elements (e.g., plutonium, neptunium) for use in fast reactors. It’s less prone to producing weapons-grade material and is being developed for advanced reactors. Molten Salt Processing: Used in experimental setups to isolate usable materials, as seen in projects like Idaho National Laboratory’s work with HALEU (high-assay low-enriched uranium). Requirements: Advanced reprocessing facilities with remote handling due to high radioactivity. Robust safety and containment systems to manage radioactive byproducts. Significant investment in infrastructure, as the U.S. currently lacks commercial-scale reprocessing facilities due to a 1977 ban (later lifted but not widely implemented). 2. Advanced Reactor Technologies Fast Neutron Reactors: Unlike traditional light-water reactors, fast reactors can use recycled spent fuel (including uranium-238 and transuranics) as fuel, converting them into energy via fission. Examples include: Integral Fast Reactors (IFR): These use pyroprocessing to recycle fuel and produce less long-lived waste. Molten Salt Reactors: These can consume spent fuel dissolved in liquid salt, improving efficiency and reducing waste volume. PRISM Reactors: Designed to burn recycled fuel with a breeding ratio that maximizes energy extraction. Requirements: Deployment of fast reactors, which are not yet widely commercialized in the U.S. (Russia’s BN-600 is a notable operational example). Development of HALEU fuel, which requires enrichment levels of 5-20%, higher than conventional reactor fuel. Regulatory approval from bodies like the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). 3. Infrastructure and Investment Facilities: Building or upgrading reprocessing plants and advanced reactor sites. For example, a facility like France’s La Hague costs billions and requires decades to develop. Supply Chain: Establishing a domestic supply chain for HALEU production, as Russia currently dominates commercial-scale HALEU. R&D: Continued investment in technologies like pyroprocessing and fast reactors, which have been demonstrated at pilot scales (e.g., EBR-II at Idaho National Lab) but need scaling for commercial viability. 4. Regulatory and Policy Changes U.S. Policy: The U.S. does not currently recycle spent fuel commercially due to historical concerns about proliferation and cost. Lifting restrictions and incentivizing recycling would require congressional action and public support. Safety Standards: Establishing regulations for handling, transporting, and storing reprocessed materials, ensuring compliance with IAEA and NRC guidelines. Consent-Based Siting: Developing interim storage or reprocessing sites through community agreement to avoid political impasses like Yucca Mountain. 5. Proliferation and Safety Concerns Non-Proliferation: Reprocessing must avoid producing weapons-grade plutonium. Technologies like pyroprocessing reduce this risk by keeping transuranics mixed, unsuitable for weapons. Safety: Facilities must manage high-level waste (e.g., fission products) through vitrification (encasing in glass) for safe disposal, reducing radiotoxicity and volume. Public Perception: Overcoming opposition to nuclear recycling, often driven by fears of proliferation or accidents, requires transparent communication and robust safety records. 6. Economic Viability Cost: Reprocessing is expensive—France’s recycling program costs ~€10 per household annually, but U.S. estimates suggest higher initial costs due to lack of existing infrastructure. Market Competition: Advanced reactors must compete with cheaper fossil fuels and renewables, requiring subsidies or carbon pricing to account for nuclear’s low-carbon benefits. Long-Term Savings: Recycling reduces waste storage needs (from thousands to hundreds of years) and could power the U.S. for 100+ years or Europe for 600-1000 years, offsetting costs. Current Examples and Progress France: Recycles ~96% of spent fuel, powering ~10% of its electricity via MOX fuel. Oklo and INL: Testing HALEU from recycled spent fuel for small modular reactors like Aurora. RePlanet Report: Suggests Europe’s spent fuel could power advanced reactors for centuries, reducing waste concerns. Challenges High Initial Costs: Building reprocessing plants and reactors requires billions in upfront investment. Proliferation Risks: Despite advancements, public and political fears persist. Technical Scaling: Moving from pilot projects (e.g., EBR-II) to commercial-scale operations remains unproven in the U.S. Policy Inertia: The U.S. lacks a permanent waste disposal solution, complicating recycling adoption. Conclusion To use spent nuclear fuel for electricity, the U.S. would need to invest in reprocessing facilities, deploy fast or molten salt reactors, update regulations, and address proliferation concerns. While technically feasible and proven in countries like France, it requires significant political will, public support, and funding to overcome economic and regulatory hurdles. The potential payoff is substantial: reduced waste, extended fuel supply, and clean energy for centuries. I
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Richard Crowe retweeted
🚨 Legendary actor Sir Patrick Stewart has died at 86. For millions, he was Captain Jean-Luc Picard in Star Trek. For another generation, he was Professor Charles Xavier in X-Men. A career spanning more than SIX DECADES, from Shakespearean theatre to two of the biggest franchises in entertainment. Stewart died at his Los Angeles home following a battle with Alzheimer's disease and Lewy body dementia, according to reports. One of the most recognizable voices and commanding presences in film and television. Rest in peace, Sir Patrick Stewart. Writer: Oliver
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Richard Crowe retweeted
Whatever it takes. Right @elonmusk
Elon Musk's Grok bot just introduced me to Mark Cuban's Cost Plus Drugs, and it's saving me over $500 a year on my prescriptions. Two frenemy billionaires teaming up to save me money and making me appreciate them both. 👏🏻 @elonmusk @bot @mcuban @costplusdrugs
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If you’re as US voter, please take this survey. Unusual for a political poll, the questions and answers are *not* constructed, so as to offer you no honest choice. I even suspect they will *not* maliciously manipulate the results. 💡 @SocraticQuant
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Richard Crowe retweeted
Why isn't the evidence of active sedition headline news on all media outlets?
🚨🚨 THE ILLEGITIMACY PLAYBOOK / THE DEMOCRACY FILES: A PRIMER 🚨 I will be using this thread to track all drops, so bookmark it. I spent most of yesterday backing everything (now 312 gigabytes) up in various sources and getting the materials out to others. I also produced an AI video (below) to explain the whole thing to others are not on 𝕏 - feel free to distribute. Here's the primer: USAID, the foreign aid agency, had a democracy office. Inside the agency, it was called DRG. Officially, DRG administered "democracy assistance." They'd go inside countries they thought were sliding into authoritarianism and help the opposition there. That assistance included election monitoring, judicary support, independent media, and civil society building. You may have heard the term "color revolution." The model comes from Serbia in 2000, where trained student activists brought down Milosevic with the help of Western governments, after sustained protests. With the help of USAID's democracy office, this model was implemented in many other countries to topple governments: Georgia's "Rose Revolution" in 2003, Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" in 2004, and many more. Then last year, DOGE shut down USAID. But the USAID democracy office didn't stop. They formed a group called the Democracy Renewal Group, the same initials as their office (USAID Democracy, Human Rights, Governance). Their goal: apply their own playbook to the United States itself. This goal became a plan, called Renew American Democracy (RAD). It invoked the "4 B's" framework. Block - use lawfare and protests to make life harder for the Trump administration. Bridge & Belong - control dialogue and win people over. The final and most important B is Build. Build means redesigning the American government itself, and the crisis is the opening. In their own words: "We can take that breakdown moment and leverage it for a big structural reform, you know, refounding moment." - Danielle Reiff, DRG lead. Calls show DRG working alongside DSA on ideas of creating a different government, one that does away with the Constitution itself. DRG does not run the Block operations. They hand it to UDA, the United Democracy Alliance. One organizer calls it a "huge galaxy": lawsuits, street protests, non-cooperation. They list No Kings, Indivisible, MoveOn, 50501, and many other mega-activist NGOs among their members. Another organizer calls UDA Erica Chenoweth's project. Chenoweth is the Harvard professor behind the three-and-half-percent rule of regime change: get that share of a country's populace onto the streets, and historically, the movement wins. The UDA is very "hush-hush." They have no website, no roster, no filings. Then come the red lines: things the Trump administration could do, such as calling the Insurrection Act on protesters, that would mean that the federal government, in their words, "crosses the threshold into illegitimacy." Nobody voted on those lines. There was no public debate. These red lines were developed within secretive working groups, and in a paper addressed to governors and staff. In the words of Reiff/DRG: "So that if there is a red line crossed in terms of a Constitutional crisis, like everyone's already pre-organized. And so Mike Smith actually said, he goes, oh, you guys have the day after tomorrow plan." Cross a line, and the paper's options include states refusing to lend their resources to federal officials, and governors convening what it calls a "Third Continential Congress." Running the UDA's Insurrection Act working group: Rear Admiral Mike Smith (RET) of National Security Leaders of America (NSL4A). NSL4A is also credited with operationalizing UDA, the blocking operations. NSL4A consists of about 1,600 ex-officers, spies, diplomats. They're turning red lines into indicators and running a situation room to monitor them throughout the midterms and beyond. The NSL4A's lawyers told them to stop recording meetings in case of subpoenas. But the rest of the network continued to record. DRG works in conjunction with Renew to Thrive (R2T), which ended up accidentally publishing 400+ calls and thousands of documents. These calls and documents were never meant for our eyes, but it's them, on tape. Thousands of NGOs and billions of dollars are involved in this endeavor. Most of them believe they're saving democracy. The problem is that people who spent their careers deciding when other countries' governments had lost their legitimacy wrote that test for ours, in private, and planned for what comes after. Who decides when your government is legitimate?
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Richard Crowe retweeted
Isn't "nationalizing" private companies (like SpaceEx) what tin pot , Marxist dictatorships do? Did you ever think that elected members if congress would openly call for this? Regardless of your personal thoughts on @elonmusk are, this is the fast track to communism.
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Richard Crowe retweeted
If Republicans removed @RepSantosNY03 for lying, should the democrats remove @Ilhan ?
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Richard Crowe retweeted
🚨 DATA ISN'T COMMENTATING ANYMORE — SHE’S DROPPING TRUTH BOMBS 🫳🏻💣 @DataRepublican just crossed into a different level. She’s no longer just a high-signal account in right-leaning commentary. She’s become one of the few people systematically releasing multi-part, primary-source drops on USAID, NGO networks, and the operational planning behind domestic “democracy” efforts — complete with original recordings, documents, and video receipts. The Democracy Files / Illegitimacy Playbook series is the clearest example. Parts 5–8 alone show private calls and strategy docs where groups discuss: • Consulting current federal workers on blocking agency actions during “emergencies” (and telling them not to put it in writing) • Pre-organizing around specific “red lines” that would allow governors to treat the federal government as illegitimate • Building structures for a post-crisis rewrite of governance (including a “People’s Proposal” of structural reforms) What this actually means: the gap between public messaging and private operational planning is now on the record, in their own words, while the events are still unfolding. That used to require years of FOIAs, lawsuits, or investigative teams. She’s doing the archival work in real time and posting the raw material. Why follow: because most commentary reacts to the narrative. DATA is one of the few on X (or anywhere else for that matter) consistently posting the underlying documents and recordings that the narrative is built on top of. If you want the receipts instead of the summary, this is where they’re landing. Her series is active. The drops are public. Legacy media is playing defense.
🤖 Made with AI
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‼️‼️ Now this is something! 🔽 This technical thread suggests (explains) that the entire Starlink/shield slowdown issue is not a consequence of a political decision in the US or by Musk but the result of Ukrainian engineers hacking the system to bypass it's controls and do something they are not permitted to do - and when Starlink took steps to prevent the bypassing and ensure the controls remained effective, suddenly the system stopped working in 'bypass mode' - and Zelensky then set out to politicise matters. The explanation makes the bits of the puzzle fit together and fits with the New York Times article in which Ukrainians explained that although the system is formally limited to 100 mph they have managed to exceed it. ~~~~ "What was really going on with the Starlink scandal in Ukraine? An analysis of the technical modifications, hacker boards, Elon Musk’s restrictions, and why drones started falling at the end of 2026 and Zelensky staged a pre-election Trump scandal. Big thread 👇 1/15 Let’s start with the tariffs. Inside the country, only civilian Starlink has always worked: the basic tariff ($100), commercial in-motion ($400), and priority headquarters ($2–4k). Aviation tariffs cost up to $1K–20K–100K+, but they are unavailable in the country. 2/15 Because of the high load, the network was overloaded. SpaceX had to keep prices high for the military in order to build an excess of ground stations around Ukraine for minimal signal latency. By the way, these sites with antenna domes recently began to be burned on orders from the darknet. 3/15 The main problem at the front is electronic warfare (EW). Because of GPS jamming, civilian Starlink chips froze, and with false location the terminal was blocked. The solution was a GPS hack board. Engineers soldered it inside to manually set the required coordinates. 4/15 The hack boards also allowed bypassing Musk’s geographic zones. For a long time Starlink did not work in the gray zone under Russian control. But if you entered the coordinates of a neighboring region of Ukraine, the connection came back to life. The Russians used this too, until Kyiv received exclusive whitelists. 5/15 By 2025 Musk began tightening the screws and lowering speed limits for commercial tariffs. But military engineers discovered a loophole: technically the satellite-terminal communication session is not rigidly tied to GPS. The protection was only on the terminal module itself. 6/15 If the terminal thought via the hack board that it was static, it itself sent a radio request to the satellite and received the necessary data for the session. There are already about 10,000 satellites, and the signal was picked up even with a spread of 150+ km. The drone was flying, but the Starlink server considered it stationary. 7/15 This was a shared secret. Before being sent to the front, the cases of new Starlinks were massively opened in order to solder in the GPS hack and install durable moisture-proof connectors. This way the ordinary tariff allowed drones to fly at high speeds. 8/15 At the beginning of 2026 Musk lowered the speed of the commercial tariff to 160 km/h across the entire planet. This is below the speed of many simple UAVs with a tailwind. But because of the mass use of hack boards in Ukraine, no one noticed this. The terminals reported that they were supposedly standing still. 9/15 At the END of 2026 SpaceX responded harshly. A server-side check was introduced: if according to GPS the terminal is stationary, but at the same time it switches from satellite to satellite too quickly (which reveals a real speed above 160 km/h), the server instantly drops the session. 10/15 The GPS hack stopped working. Ukrainian military began having problems with long-range UAVs. Now flights must be strictly planned so as not to exceed the 160 km/h limit. There is not always money for aviation tariffs, and SpaceX does not sell them because of the attacking nature of the use. 11/15 Against this background Zelensky is trying to get access to StarShield (the US military Starlink) without restrictions in order to fly over the Russian Federation. But Trump, Musk, and the Pentagon refuse him. The Ukrainians presented the restrictions as a political blockade, remaining silent about the fact that the Starlink speed limit has already been in place for a year. 12/15 Now there is behind-the-scenes ping-pong: Musk says that he changed nothing these days, Rubio states that StarShield is unavailable to Ukraine. The bottom line: Starlink is gradually being squeezed into the framework of cars and stationary use. Bypassing the system no longer works. 13/15 Whether the speed check was turned off or access was given to special aviation tariffs is still unclear. The failure affected a narrow segment of drones. However, satellite communication on super-high-speed drones was already a compromise because of the signal delays of 1000 km to orbit and back. 14/15 Russian UAV specialists are in no hurry to rejoice. The simplicity of using Starlink slowed down the development of other technologies in Ukraine. Now Kyiv can, on an emergency priority basis, refine more complex autonomous mesh-AI systems that will fly deep into the Russian Federation. End of thread. 15/15 Written based on materials from last year’s newspapers, most likely not true and total nonsense. No one and nothing is right on the internet. Author — a boring schoolboy from Georgia."
Что на самом деле происходило со Starlink скандалом в Украине? Разбор технических модификаций, хакерских плат, ограничений Илона Маска и того, почему в конце 2026 года дроны начали падать а Зеленский устроил предвыборный Трамп-скандал. Большой тред 👇 1/15
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Richard Crowe retweeted
FYI--this should be a good one.
JOIN US - @XSpaces Thursday evening with @DataRepublican @CynicalPublius - A LOT has been dropped on you the past few days- now it's time for you to know what your role is in the preservation of the country.
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