Timothy (@TimothyBuffett) header
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The Psychology of Human Misjudgment There are no solutions, only tradeoffs Information without context is falsely empowering

Joined February 2011
Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)
NEW 🚨 Why Did America Stop Building Airports? Sky Harbour CEO Tal Keinan on the AI Wealth Wave, Private Jet Boom & Solving the Hangar Shortage @JTLonsdale sits down with Sky Harbour ($SKYH) CEO Tal Keinan They cover:  - How did USA build thousands of airports in the 1930s and 40s? - Why did we stop building new airports? - The AI wealth wave and private jet boom - How Tal pioneered the home-based operator model - How Sky Harbour uses AI to pinpoint new locations and customers (00:00) Episode intro (01:45) Eighteen years as an F-16 pilot (04:00) Clarity Capital and Israel's tech explosion (08:16) “Nowhere to park it” / Why did America stop building airports? (10:40) Why general aviation airports don't make money (13:15) The FBO duopoly & why they love NetJets (16:05) How Tal created the home-based operator model (19:10) How the Sky Harbour business model works (24:50) How Tal uses AI to scout customers and locations (27:09) The AI wealth wave & private aviation boom
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I think it is becoming more fair to look at $XYZ like this. Reminds me of when ppl only looked at $TSLA as a car company.... I think @jack is brilliant, but the guy has been lousy for shareholders over his career. I hope that changes.
To those who think $XYZ is “just a payments company,” read its Q3 shareholder letter. With BuilderLabs creating AI solutions for other companies, Dessa enabling voice interactions with AI, and Buzz monetizing in Q4, Block is very much an AI company.
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Timothy retweeted
That's pretty wild... "everyone in the US transacts with a Square seller every year" Then you have Neighborhoods... which if the value add in Neighborhoods is even remotely reasonable to buyers, then they can seriously increase the pie here for Square and Cash App. $XYZ
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Charlie Munger tells the story of an actor who once said: “I’ve been a great actor for so long that I’ve stopped knowing what I truly think about any subject.” Then Munger says: “Politicians are like that.” $djco
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A lot of truth here.
The modern Left in 2026 is basically 4 groups: 1. Boomers who watch cable TV all day 2. Minorities who are obsessed with “free stuff” 3. Women who went crazy off birth control & SSRIs (have a huge septum piercing) 4. Mentally ill gender goblins
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Timothy retweeted
Dems went from “SpaceX and Starlink are impossible and Elon’s a rube” to “they only work bc of subsidies and would fail otherwise” to “they are so critical to the USA we must be authoritarian and seize them” in a decade.
"SpaceX isn’t a tech company. It’s an aerospace and communications company. It is vital to America’s national security and it must be brought to heel and aligned with America’s interests." lnk.thebulwark.com/3We7Trq
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The best question is how much of the Republican Party is captured as well...? The uniparty is real IMO
I am not here to tell you that Republicans have done a wonderful job. I am here to tell you that the Democrat Party has been fully captured by communists who want you dead and seek to destroy western civilization itself. Go vote against them. It’s the only choice.
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Looks like @WaltLightShed will be right and $CCOI to $5
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Make money. Act broke. Be unknown.
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🌌 What stands out after reading Mark Leonard's letters to $CSU.TO shareholders isn't the numbers. It's the culture he spelled out, in his own words, year after year. 1️⃣ "We trust our managers and employees and hence try to encumber them with as little bureaucracy as possible." (2011 letter) → Decentralization isn't a slogan there. It's how the company is built. Decisions are made by the people closest to the customers and the business, not by a distant head office. That keeps each business nimble, keeps overhead low, and develops managers who think and act like owners. As the company grows, it adds more small, accountable businesses instead of more layers of bureaucracy. 2️⃣ "We nearly always promote from within because mutual trust and loyalty take years to build…" (2011 letter) → They treat culture as something compounded over years, not hired in. 3️⃣ "We incent managers and employees with shares (escrowed for 3-5 years) so that they are economically aligned they are economically aligned with shareholders." (2011 letter) → This is a different kind of alignment than stock options. Options reward a higher share price by a certain date, which can tempt managers to do what looks right in the short term, like taking on debt to buy back shares at full multiples, sometimes at the expense of long-term value. Owning real shares that are locked up for years means managers share both the upside and the downside, just like shareholders. They think like owners because they are owners. 4️⃣ "It takes lots of time and effort to attract and educate competent shareholder/partners. The last thing we want them to do, is sell." (2013 letter) → As James Allen wrote, "Men do not attract that which they want, but that which they are." Constellation doesn't just hope for patient, long-term shareholders. It earns them by being a patient, long-term company and by teaching owners how it thinks. Great companies tend to attract the shareholders they deserve. 5️⃣ "This year I'll take no salary, no incentive compensation, and I am no longer charging any expenses to the company… In essence, I'm your partner in CSI, not your employee." (2014 letter) → How many founders have done that? Speaks for itself on many levels. 6️⃣ "I've traditionally travelled on economy tickets and stayed at modest hotels because I wasn't happy freeloading on the CSI shareholders…" (2014 letter) → Being disciplined about the small stuff says a lot. It usually means discipline isn't a choice but a habit. A leader who won't waste a few hundred dollars of shareholder money on a hotel room is far less likely to waste millions on a bad acquisition. How you handle the little decisions tends to show how you’ll handle the big ones. 7️⃣ "Said another way, when we dropped our hurdle rate, it dragged down the expected IRR's for all the opportunities that we subsequently pursued, not just those at the margin." (2015 letter) → Being candid about their own past decisions is how discipline lasts. 8️⃣ "Lots of investors seek businesses with those characteristics, but great owners are rare. Far too many owners mistake themselves for great operators." (April 2018 letter) → Humility about the owner's role. 🌌 When Leonard stepped down for health reasons in Sept 2025, he handed the role to Mark Miller, whom he called "a trusted adviser… for over thirty years. That choice says a lot. Miller co-founded Trapeze Group in 1988, and in 1995 it became Constellation's very first acquisition. He has spent 30+ years inside the system, first as an operator of an acquired business and then helping build and run it. Leonard founded Constellation, and Miller helped shape its DNA from early on. The successor wasn't an outside hire learning the culture. He's one of the people who built it. The culture was built to outlast its founder. In my view, all of these things make this a team and culture worth trusting.
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Carl Icahn held ~45.8M shares of $AAPL at the end of 2015. He sold his entire position in 2016. Had he simply held those shares, they'd be worth $63B today - more than 17x the current market cap of Icahn Enterprises.
Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine owned ~9.2M shares of $MA in 2008. Since then, the fund has fully exited and re-entered the position six times. Had it simply held those original shares, they'd be worth ~$5.9B today — more than 1/3 of the entire fund. Source: Dataroma
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Timothy retweeted
Tesla and SpaceX have created meaningful wealth for hundreds of thousands of employees over time and improved the retirement savings of hundreds of millions of people
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Timothy retweeted
This is actually true
Once you understand the incentive, the reason for the behavior becomes obvious: they are importing a left-voting bloc that depends on government handouts. A prominent example of this in America is Ilhan Omar and her Somali voting bloc in Minnesota, an area which used to be primarily Nordic-German. Importing voters is a CERTAIN path to a single-party supermajority and has ALREADY happened at the state level in California and New York. It also explains why those states have BANNED VOTER ID in order to accelerate a permanent socialist supermajority, destroying any semblance of democracy. We stand on the precipice of disaster, an end to America.
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Timothy retweeted
Four years ago … And that is exactly what happened
In the past I voted Democrat, because they were (mostly) the kindness party. But they have become the party of division & hate, so I can no longer support them and will vote Republican. Now, watch their dirty tricks campaign against me unfold … 🍿
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$CCOI equity holders be like: “I can’t wait to wake up tomorrow and feel like I’ve been gang-raped!”
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We have decided $CCOI will do a 30% drop and then another 30% drop upon earnings. New rules.
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The Democrat Party is racist against Asians and Whites
When Virginia schools were 50% Asian, the state said they were “overrepresented,” not diverse enough, and needed to be “rebalanced” for equity. Now the governor is saying that a cabinet that is 75% black is “the most diverse”. The double standard is exhausting.
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Replying to @elonmusk
The left thinks you’ve gotten involved in Politics out of a craving for power When in reality it seems like what you actually want is to ensure we maintain the balance of power into the future Trying to entrench one side is very different than trying to maintain balance between two sides This is deeply misunderstood
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Agree!
When you own a great business, quit dancing in and out of the stock every time the wind blows. “Taking gains” and “trading around a position” sound sophisticated, but ask yourself what you’re actually doing, exchanging ownership in a business you understand for a prediction about its next price movement. Being right about the business doesn’t automatically make you good at predicting the stock. The expensive part is that selling creates a second decision. Now you must decide when to return, often while hoping the business you admired becomes cheap enough to justify buying it back. A stock can fall after you sell and still never reach your reentry price, leaving you correct about a decline and absent from years of compounding. Meanwhile, the business keeps working. Customers spend, earnings grow, and management reinvests in opportunities that may produce profits for another decade. Those returns accrue to whoever owns the shares, regardless of how clever the previous owner’s exit looked. Patience still requires scrutiny. You must keep asking whether the competitive advantage is intact, whether management is allocating capital wisely, and whether the valuation offers a reasonable return. But when those answers remain favorable, learn to sit on your ass and give the business time. The discipline is continuing to evaluate the business without feeling compelled to trade its stock. You can spend enormous energy trying to improve your entry and exit prices while forfeiting the far larger opportunity between them. Investing is simple, but leaving a good decision alone can be extraordinarily difficult. 🌹
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California became a one-party state
In 1986, Ronald Reagan allowed ~1.4m illegal immigrants in California to become citizens 1988 was the last time California voted Republican, ever. Elon's caution about opening borders and creating voting pathways is *the literal playbook* and has already been done once If politicians can win elections by altering demographics (including by importing or creating more voters for their party) the entire premise of the American system is permanently broken This is a far more important issue than any individual issue on the ballot
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