Timothy (@TimothyBuffett) header
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The Psychology of Human Misjudgment There are no solutions, only tradeoffs Information without context is falsely empowering

Joined February 2011
Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)Photo by Timothy (@TimothyBuffett)
Aldous Huxley, timeless banger
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Timothy retweeted
Joe Rogan warns Texas conservative leadership that THC ban will lose them young voters and turn state Blue: “The THC thing. Here's what Texas doesn't understand. You will fuck this place up, and you will turn the whole thing blue. The kids will turn on you. If you tell them they can't smoke weed. They know weed's not killing anybody.”
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NEW 🚨 Why Did America Stop Building Airports? Sky Harbour CEO Tal Keinan on the AI Wealth Wave, Private Jet Boom & Solving the Hangar Shortage @JTLonsdale sits down with Sky Harbour ($SKYH) CEO Tal Keinan They cover:  - How did USA build thousands of airports in the 1930s and 40s? - Why did we stop building new airports? - The AI wealth wave and private jet boom - How Tal pioneered the home-based operator model - How Sky Harbour uses AI to pinpoint new locations and customers (00:00) Episode intro (01:45) Eighteen years as an F-16 pilot (04:00) Clarity Capital and Israel's tech explosion (08:16) “Nowhere to park it” / Why did America stop building airports? (10:40) Why general aviation airports don't make money (13:15) The FBO duopoly & why they love NetJets (16:05) How Tal created the home-based operator model (19:10) How the Sky Harbour business model works (24:50) How Tal uses AI to scout customers and locations (27:09) The AI wealth wave & private aviation boom
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That's pretty wild... "everyone in the US transacts with a Square seller every year" Then you have Neighborhoods... which if the value add in Neighborhoods is even remotely reasonable to buyers, then they can seriously increase the pie here for Square and Cash App. $XYZ
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Charlie Munger tells the story of an actor who once said: “I’ve been a great actor for so long that I’ve stopped knowing what I truly think about any subject.” Then Munger says: “Politicians are like that.” $djco
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Timothy retweeted
Dems went from “SpaceX and Starlink are impossible and Elon’s a rube” to “they only work bc of subsidies and would fail otherwise” to “they are so critical to the USA we must be authoritarian and seize them” in a decade.
"SpaceX isn’t a tech company. It’s an aerospace and communications company. It is vital to America’s national security and it must be brought to heel and aligned with America’s interests." lnk.thebulwark.com/3We7Trq
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Make money. Act broke. Be unknown.
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🌌 What stands out after reading Mark Leonard's letters to $CSU.TO shareholders isn't the numbers. It's the culture he spelled out, in his own words, year after year. 1️⃣ "We trust our managers and employees and hence try to encumber them with as little bureaucracy as possible." (2011 letter) → Decentralization isn't a slogan there. It's how the company is built. Decisions are made by the people closest to the customers and the business, not by a distant head office. That keeps each business nimble, keeps overhead low, and develops managers who think and act like owners. As the company grows, it adds more small, accountable businesses instead of more layers of bureaucracy. 2️⃣ "We nearly always promote from within because mutual trust and loyalty take years to build…" (2011 letter) → They treat culture as something compounded over years, not hired in. 3️⃣ "We incent managers and employees with shares (escrowed for 3-5 years) so that they are economically aligned they are economically aligned with shareholders." (2011 letter) → This is a different kind of alignment than stock options. Options reward a higher share price by a certain date, which can tempt managers to do what looks right in the short term, like taking on debt to buy back shares at full multiples, sometimes at the expense of long-term value. Owning real shares that are locked up for years means managers share both the upside and the downside, just like shareholders. They think like owners because they are owners. 4️⃣ "It takes lots of time and effort to attract and educate competent shareholder/partners. The last thing we want them to do, is sell." (2013 letter) → As James Allen wrote, "Men do not attract that which they want, but that which they are." Constellation doesn't just hope for patient, long-term shareholders. It earns them by being a patient, long-term company and by teaching owners how it thinks. Great companies tend to attract the shareholders they deserve. 5️⃣ "This year I'll take no salary, no incentive compensation, and I am no longer charging any expenses to the company… In essence, I'm your partner in CSI, not your employee." (2014 letter) → How many founders have done that? Speaks for itself on many levels. 6️⃣ "I've traditionally travelled on economy tickets and stayed at modest hotels because I wasn't happy freeloading on the CSI shareholders…" (2014 letter) → Being disciplined about the small stuff says a lot. It usually means discipline isn't a choice but a habit. A leader who won't waste a few hundred dollars of shareholder money on a hotel room is far less likely to waste millions on a bad acquisition. How you handle the little decisions tends to show how you’ll handle the big ones. 7️⃣ "Said another way, when we dropped our hurdle rate, it dragged down the expected IRR's for all the opportunities that we subsequently pursued, not just those at the margin." (2015 letter) → Being candid about their own past decisions is how discipline lasts. 8️⃣ "Lots of investors seek businesses with those characteristics, but great owners are rare. Far too many owners mistake themselves for great operators." (April 2018 letter) → Humility about the owner's role. 🌌 When Leonard stepped down for health reasons in Sept 2025, he handed the role to Mark Miller, whom he called "a trusted adviser… for over thirty years. That choice says a lot. Miller co-founded Trapeze Group in 1988, and in 1995 it became Constellation's very first acquisition. He has spent 30+ years inside the system, first as an operator of an acquired business and then helping build and run it. Leonard founded Constellation, and Miller helped shape its DNA from early on. The successor wasn't an outside hire learning the culture. He's one of the people who built it. The culture was built to outlast its founder. In my view, all of these things make this a team and culture worth trusting.
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Carl Icahn held ~45.8M shares of $AAPL at the end of 2015. He sold his entire position in 2016. Had he simply held those shares, they'd be worth $63B today - more than 17x the current market cap of Icahn Enterprises.
Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine owned ~9.2M shares of $MA in 2008. Since then, the fund has fully exited and re-entered the position six times. Had it simply held those original shares, they'd be worth ~$5.9B today — more than 1/3 of the entire fund. Source: Dataroma
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Timothy retweeted
Tesla and SpaceX have created meaningful wealth for hundreds of thousands of employees over time and improved the retirement savings of hundreds of millions of people
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Timothy retweeted
This is actually true
Once you understand the incentive, the reason for the behavior becomes obvious: they are importing a left-voting bloc that depends on government handouts. A prominent example of this in America is Ilhan Omar and her Somali voting bloc in Minnesota, an area which used to be primarily Nordic-German. Importing voters is a CERTAIN path to a single-party supermajority and has ALREADY happened at the state level in California and New York. It also explains why those states have BANNED VOTER ID in order to accelerate a permanent socialist supermajority, destroying any semblance of democracy. We stand on the precipice of disaster, an end to America.
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Timothy retweeted
Four years ago … And that is exactly what happened
In the past I voted Democrat, because they were (mostly) the kindness party. But they have become the party of division & hate, so I can no longer support them and will vote Republican. Now, watch their dirty tricks campaign against me unfold … 🍿
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Timothy retweeted
The Democrat Party is racist against Asians and Whites
When Virginia schools were 50% Asian, the state said they were “overrepresented,” not diverse enough, and needed to be “rebalanced” for equity. Now the governor is saying that a cabinet that is 75% black is “the most diverse”. The double standard is exhausting.
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Replying to @elonmusk
The left thinks you’ve gotten involved in Politics out of a craving for power When in reality it seems like what you actually want is to ensure we maintain the balance of power into the future Trying to entrench one side is very different than trying to maintain balance between two sides This is deeply misunderstood
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Timothy retweeted
California became a one-party state
In 1986, Ronald Reagan allowed ~1.4m illegal immigrants in California to become citizens 1988 was the last time California voted Republican, ever. Elon's caution about opening borders and creating voting pathways is *the literal playbook* and has already been done once If politicians can win elections by altering demographics (including by importing or creating more voters for their party) the entire premise of the American system is permanently broken This is a far more important issue than any individual issue on the ballot
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Timothy retweeted
Replying to @benswerd
I have steak, eggs & coffee for breakfast everyday 🦾
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Timothy retweeted
Replying to @JonErlichman
Tesla will be very high too
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Timothy retweeted
🚨 Neuralink just delivered one of its most emotional breakthroughs yet Terry, diagnosed with ALS in 2024, is now speaking again using only his thoughts. The implant translates brain signals into words, with Grok Voice restoring his own natural voice. Watching him hear himself speak again is incredibly powerful. This is what restoring human connection looks like. Truly life-changing. As found.
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James O’Keefe on the Felony Charges for Exposing Fraud in Minnesota: This is not political. It is fundamental. It is about whether citizens still have the right to question their government. This is now a landmark First Amendment case, and every American’s right to speak truth to power has been put on the line. Weaponized lawfare does not work against me. It has always backfired on the people who come after me. Most people find criminal charges and lawsuits stressful; the process becomes a form of punishment. But I love this process because it gives me the opportunity to expose injustice at the highest levels. My foundation will be indemnifying members of the Justice League, including @camhigby for their lawful reporting. I’m calling on all Americans, and especially all journalists, to stand united on a message to the prosecutors in Minnesota: the politics of fear will not prevail in the United States of America.
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