Tom retweeted
Told 60 yr old @Walgreens clerk "congrats on being included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average" and, once she understood the circumstance, was sweetly overwhelmed w pride and starting calling out to her coworkers
Tom retweeted
10 minutes of TikTok was enough to impair people’s ability to remember and carry out intentions.
Twitter and YouTube didn’t show the same decline.
Rapid context-switching may be where most of cognitive cost is.
Tom retweeted
Kelly: “I mean, Rick, it's worth pointing out how unusual it is to have five-year yields rise 18 basis points in one session.”
Rick Santelli: “How unusual is it to have zero interest rates for seven years around the globe?
This is the price we pay for manipulating, and it's a normalization.
I'll give you something. Since 1980, the average yield on a ten-year note is around 5.5 to 5.6 percent. That should put things in perspective.”
😃
Tom retweeted
Big Short investor Steve Eisman says the AI labs know they have no moats and are manufacturing a crisis to get regulation that hands them a duopoly
"I think this is all nonsense."
[ You think it's all nonsense? ]
"All nonsense. I think that there's something else completely going on here. ... What I think is happening is that token maxing is over. The open weight models are taking big market share. I think these companies are very nervous. They realize that there are no moats around their business whatsoever, and they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation, and that they think they can then manipulate to create the moats, to create the duopoly that they want."
[ Wow. ]
"That's what I think is going on."
"Honestly, I think this whole Terminator thing is garbage. That's for sure."
Tom retweeted
Pinnacle says it's clear sports prediction markets "are highly reliant on our pricing," and could unleash the lawyers if it sees "persistent, unwanted theft" of its data.
Thought this was also interesting as a peek into some PM sausage-making:
covers.com/industry/pinnacle…
@Covers
Tom retweeted
“Anthropic CEO Dario Šarić“
The Best Stock To Buy During The "AI Slowdown" youtu.be/EvRmra6O5FY?is=aRVf…
Why OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Anthropic’s Dario Saric have a God Complex
Tom retweeted
“Where do you see that extinction number landing at as we exit the calendar year?”
Tom retweeted
“Everytime you give politicians a year’s worth of better revenue, they make three years’ of bigger promises.
“We’re on the wrong path and our leaders are on vacation.
“It’s reprehensible.”
- Rick Santelli
We’re going to miss you, King. 👑
Rest well.
Tom retweeted
Jr analyst: "I can't believe those idiots overbuilt to the extent they did in 18XX, 19XX, 200X, How were they so stupid?"
Oil, railroads, fiber, DRAM, natgas. Everyone was stupid back then.
Same analyst: "My forecast calls for DC spending of $15T in 2032, pricing up modestly."
Tom retweeted
Chamath walked away with ~$750M in profits across his SPAC empire, while public investors lost an estimated ~$45B to $50B in peak market value across his 18 total deals.
Out of 10 sponsored SPACs and 8 PIPEs, 4 dissolved, multiple went bankrupt (Proterra, Sunlight), and 5 of his 6 completed SPAC mergers dropped 50% to 98% below their $10 issue price.
Chamath says Silicon Valley lost what made it great and only cares about money now
"Silicon Valley has completely lost what made it great. It was a place for weirdos, for people at the fringes, for people that really were idealistic. And it has become something that's far from that now. It is the equivalent of what Harvard used to be. It's a credentialing place."
"When we came, we used to aspire to meet the Bill Campbells of the world, Mike Moritz, John Doerr. Those folks are gone. We used to aspire to work for Steve Jobs. He's not here."
"And in that breach, all we have done is focused on making money in every single way that we can, hand over fist. And there's nothing wrong with that. Except now it’s at a point where we need to do a better job of acknowledging it and trying to do a little bit better.”
“Every time we don't, and we're given a chance to be better, and we're not, the hatred builds, the animus builds. And that's what we're seeing now."
Tom retweeted
Before PE could buy at 10x, exit at 12-14x and no operational work was needed. Multiple expansion drove all the returns.
Now debt costs more, multiples have compressed, and EBITDA has to actually grow for the equity to work.
Not surprising that >3,000 PE companies (one in four) haven’t done a deal of any kind since 2021.
