ScarySharp

A brief update and assessment of the current military-political situation by Frontelligence Insight, based on numerous Russian documents and other evidence provided by our sources, as well as electronic data obtained from email leaks by our allied cyber team: 1. Russia continues to set highly unrealistic objectives for its units. For example, we discovered that in October, Russian command gave one of its divisions roughly two weeks to encircle a large settlement. In reality, by November, they got closer to that settlement only marginally. 2. Russian losses remain consistently high across multiple units, at levels no lower than those recorded in 2025 or the first half of 2026. At the same time, Russia still appears capable of replenishing its units with new recruits, even as overall numbers of recruits continue to decline. However, the decrease remains gradual rather than steep. 3. Russian UAV units continue to receive priority funding and supplies, both from the state and from local authorities in their home regions. As the war progresses, these units are receiving increasing numbers of drones, as well as more advanced models. At the same time, many newly formed units are starting to lag behind due to rapid scaling of UAV units. 4. Russia’s FSB, SVR, and GU GSh continue to actively identify potential targets for sabotage operations or kinetic strikes in Ukraine and the EU, as well as Russian political exiles and activists perceived as threats to the regime. 5. This also includes extensive efforts to infiltrate their surroundings, social circles, and workplaces. At the same time, many of these efforts appear to prioritize quantity over quality. 6. Overall, Russian leadership appears to assess the strategic situation as what we would describe as “moderately positive.” This assessment seems to be driven by the perception that the US has reduced its support for Ukraine and that Europe is not viewed as unified in its commitment to supporting Ukraine in the long term.