Too cheap to meter: It is 0.025 cents (not dollars) per million tokens. Look at the insane performance numbers for Kimi 3.1 on Vera Rubin - 90$ worth (45M tokens * 2$ per million for input, assuming most tokens are input) of Kimi 3.1 tokens for 1$ of TCO at 100 tokens/sec interactivity. Insane margins. Lot of scope for players to cut prices. It is true: The more you buy, the more you save 🙇‍♀️ - With theoretically same uplift for DS v4.1 Flash on Vera Rubin from Grace Blackwell (1600M per dollar TCO), there will be nearly 4000M tokens per dollar of TCO. It is 0.025 cents (not dollars but cents) per million tokens. (Grace Blackwell chart below for comparision. Then look at SemiAnalysis chart). Explain me again how there is going to be 250B of inference GPU rental revenue next end year (25GW of inference ompute), and even higher GPU revenue year on year to justify 1T USD of per annum investment that will go on in perpetuity. It is nearly 30$ per living person of GPU compute (8 billion population) and 120B tokens per living person (babies, kids, old people included) at 0.00025$ generation cost for a million tokens of DS v4.1 quality. That is the level of consumption we need. Either we have a glut or everyone has AI waifu, BF, dad, mom whatever they desire. I don't see everyone having a personal robot before 2027. I don't know about you. Let me know if you disagree. These are relatively idealized scenarios. There would be lot of slack in the system and generation may be few tens of billions per living person, but even then it is a lot!!!

New PFP 👀

SITUATION DETECTED: Warhound launched from stealth today with a $200M seed at a $1.2B valuation. Ben Lamm and Palmer Luckey are cloning gene-edited bio-enhanced dogs and equipping them with custom Anduril vests, goggles, and sensors for the military and law enforcement.

Every morning, something reads 2,400 news stories and throws away 2,355. What's left is The ApexQuantix Briefing: the macro that actually moved, what it means for a portfolio, and where the risk sits. Three editions a day. Free to read, free to listen. apexquantix.com

الإمارات تعرب عن بالغ القلق إزاء التطورات في المنطقة وتدعو إلى الوقف الفوري للتصعيد UAE Expresses Deep Concern over Regional Developments and Calls for Immediate De-escalation

U.S. MILITARY: FORCES HAVE BEGUN LAUNCHING A SERIES OF POWERFUL STRIKES AGAINST IRAN

Et c'est là que je réalise l'ampleur du problème. Car ce monde qui vient sera d'une complexité inédite. Piloter l'abondance énergétique, orchestrer une robotique de masse, gérer une expansion spatiale cela ne se manage pas avec les outils mentaux de la rareté. Or c'est précisément à ça qu'on a formé nos technocrates : administrer la pénurie, gérer le déclin, répartir ce qui manque. Ils sont dressés pour le monde d'hier. Demain exigera autre chose. Il faudra mettre des ingénieurs de très haut vol au cœur des systèmes des gens qui pensent en ordres de grandeur, qui comprennent les boucles de rétroaction et les courbes exponentielles. Pas des gestionnaires du statu quo. Des bâtisseurs.

$SPCX: Thoughts on SpaceX IPO (typos corrected from pre-mkt post) The company says its total addressable market is the largest “in human history,” at $28.5 Trillion. But this requires SpaceX to be thought of as a vertically integrated AI and connectivity infrastructure platform versus the rocket and satellite company which it is today. The $28.5 Trillion TAM Breakdown is as follows AI $26.5T: Enterprise Applications ($22.7T), AI infrastructure ($2.4T), consumer subscriptions ($760B), ads ($600B) Connectivity $1.6T: StarLink Broadband ($870B) and Starlink Mobile ($740B) Space $370B: Traditional launch services and space-enabled solutions Elon Musk is the Thomas Edison of our generation and SpaceX also has no other comparable in the technology industry at this scale. But unfortunately, the SpaceX IPO valuation at ~90x CY25 revenues at a IPO price of $135 is priced as such. $TSLA, another Elon Musk company, is valued at 16x CY25 revenues as a comparison. For those that think valuation does not matter given this is a long-term play, I would point to the $ARKK innovation ETF as a warning. Since its peak on 2/12/21 during the Meme stock mania through 6/11/26 (yesterday), it is down 51% including dividends. $TSLA is up 47% during that time but the S&P is up 103% including dividends. Revenue growth at SpaceX also slowed from 35% y/y in C24 ($14.0B) to 33% in C25 ($18.7B) to 15% ($4.7B) in the most recent quarter while the Net Income losses increased from $4.9B in C25 to $4.3B in just Q1:26. Free Cash Flow losses also increased from $14.0B in CY25 to $9.1B in just Q1:26 driven by capex increasing from $20.7B in CY25 to $10.1B in just Q1:26. SpaceX says that multi-hundred-billion-dollar capital expenditures over the next five years will be required to build the infrastructure—specifically data centers and AI training capacity— to chase this theoretical market. The stock market is clearly not responding well to $GOOGL (down 6% in June month-to-date through 6/11) or $AMZN (down 11% in June mtd through 6/11) raising capital to chase this market or to $ORCL results where capex guidance was higher than expected (down 18% in June mtd through 6/11 and 9% yesterday). $META’s stock is down 15% since raising capex and operating expenses on their Q1 results on April 29th vs the S&P up 4% through June 11th. Meanwhile, SpaceX will be pivoting their business to compete with the established hyperscalers above as well as enterprise software companies while currently not having a leading AI model. In addition, I worry that the large sums of money that have already been raised by others in the equity market such as Google is reducing the amount of capital available to everyone else. Money looks infinite right up until it doesn’t. Between SpaceX, then Anthropic this fall followed potentially by OpenAI, there is likely to be $200B in capital raises this year through just these three IPOs. This will put to the test the liquidity available when 30 year treasury yields have reached levels last seen two decades ago. As for SpaceX’s stock, I expect the stock to trade well initially given it is likely to be added to different indices soon after going public such as the Russell in 5 trading days, MSCI in 10 and Nasdaq100 in 15. This will result in a lot of forced buying by index funds. In addition, some “closet indexers” in the mutual fund community will market weight the name to avoid the tracking error relative to the indices that they are benchmarked against. After the initial 15 trading days, however, I think it gets a lot more dicey. While Elon always seems to deliver on his forecasts, they are rarely in the time frame initially envisioned. When you are doing things hardly anyone thought possible, this is understandable. Currently the stock is trading at ~$180 in the perpetual futures contracts on Hyperliquid vs the $135 IPO price which already implied ~90x CY26 revenues. I believe the risk vs. reward is very poor at these valuation levels with capex ramping up once you get beyond the initial 15 trading days when it can be added to indices.

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…

Recently, we purchased one of each Anthropic/OpenAI subscription plan and randomly ran long horizon coding tasks until we exhausted the weekly limit. It's widely believed that a $200/month plan maxes out at ~$2000/month worth of tokens (assuming API pricing). However, we found that the subscriptions are actually far more generous. (2/4)

🚨🚨More quotes from my phone call with president Trump: “The Iranian strikes didn’t hurt anybody. Hopefully Israel is not going to retaliate. If Bibi strikes them back it’s just gonna keep going like the last 47 years, or the last 3000 years" 🚨🚨Trump added: "We are very close to a final deal with Iran. It is going to be a good deal. I don’t want it to blow up because of what is happening now" 🚨🚨Trump stressed: "I am going to call Bibi right now and tell him not to retaliate. Each of them had their fun. Israel had its strike and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one"