Artin DerSimonian

NEW RESEARCH Since the end of the Cold War, America’s poorly calibrated approach to former Soviet states like Ukraine has had disastrous consequences, in part precipitating the West’s geopolitical crisis with Russia. While Washington may hope to shift its focus toward competition with Beijing, this pivot is bound to fail so long as America maintains the same misguided approach to other states on Russia’s periphery like Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova. Past calls for integrating Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, for example, created dangerous geopolitical gray zones that contributed to Russian aggression while failing to secure Western military commitments to defend these so-called “in-between states.” The best way to advance America’s interests in Europe — avoiding war, promoting stability, and supporting economic development — is to take a different approach to these states, based on four strategic principles: 1.) Rejecting further NATO expansion or other US military guarantees to states along Russia’s border. 2.) Promoting economic connectivity projects across the in-between states. 3.) Encouraging the in-between states to maintain and pursue foreign and trade policy flexibility that permits positive relations with both Western and non–Western partners. 4.) Pairing US regional engagement with targeted confidence-building measures with Russia to prevent dangerous security spirals. Securing a negotiated compromise settlement in Ukraine that guarantees Kyiv a viable economic path into the European Union while establishing formal Ukrainian military neutrality would greatly aid the United States in successfully developing and executing a new blueprint for its approach in Eurasia. Such a deal would offer Washington an opportunity to transform the in-between states into valuable economic partners that directly bolster long-term American industrial competitiveness. The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP, between Armenia and Azerbaijan, is a positive example that could be expanded on. Continued US support for strategic geoeconomic projects, like TRIPP or the development of Black Sea port infrastructure in Georgia, would not only help the region but also secure Western access to critical minerals and offer alternatives to supply chain choke points. In addition, targeted US diplomatic actions in the region — such as supporting Moldova’s EU integration while helping resolve the Transnistria dispute, advancing dialogue with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, and reestablishing a strategic partnership with Georgia — can play a key role in refocusing US engagement on America’s core interests in the region. By discarding Washington’s open-door policy toward NATO enlargement and embracing prudent, interest-driven economic diplomacy, the United States can safeguard European stability, secure vital resource supply chains, and free up critical national security resources that are necessary for managing greater challenges. The latest from @MEpiskopos and @artinthinks quincyinst.org/research/a-bl…