Yes, this is both very disturbing and obviously true
as @willdepue says this transition will take anywhere between 5 and 50 years
But I personally find consolation in the fact that:
1. That transition time will be the most exciting time anyone has ever lived through, probably ever;
2. On the other side there will be very nice things like extreme abundance and unprecedented human freedom.
What a time to be alive!
Today
Nvidia and Apple are each worth $5T
French 10yr yield is 5%
Imagine telling this to someone in 2022
À tous ceux qui disent « oui c’est un scandale, les agences sont complices, blah blah blah», la réalité c’est que ça fait des années qu’on sait que les agences n’ont rien dans le slip et qu’elles ne sont aucunement fiables.
Le marché est le seul juge de paix et il a déjà pricé (et continue de repricer) le risque sur la France. Le spread OAT Bund ainsi que le taux 10 ans français est bien plus révélateur que n’importe quelle note d’agence.
Il n’y aura pas besoin d’une dégradation de la note pour que la France fasse faillite
this is what they took from us
Glaringly obvious fact now has a near visualization
we moved from "ai will never be able to do biology research" to "ohh sure it's a discovery but a mere grad student could do the same in just a few years!" in the matter of a day
congrats Anthropic i guess!
it's quite remarkable how accurate the AI2027 has been so far
it definitely sounded crazy and implausible at the time to a lot of people including me
i remember listening to the @dwarkesh_sp episode where he interviewed the authors (@slatestarcodex and @DKokotajlo) and that completely changed my view to it being a realistic forecast
For late 2026, AI 2027 predicted the top AI lab to have a $2T valuation and $38B/yr revenue. Anthropic's IPO is said to be $2T and Anthropic's annualized revenue topped $65B by late July 2026 ($40B for OpenAI). AI 2027 also predicted that AI would be at the level of human Pro at hacking, forecasting (for the first time AI beat all Humans on Metaculus cup), coding, and bioweapons.
People are finding out there’s a reason why AIs sound the way they do.
It’s because they were trained to mimic the “best” writing out there in the training data. So essentially they sound like NYT journalists or award winning novel writers.
how surprising is it now that these style detectors classify actual human novel writers as being AI
J'ai voulu vérifier la fiabilité de cet outil sur un texte que j'avais écrit il y a quelques années lorsque j'étais malade et que j'avais besoin de mettre des mots sur mes maux. C'était aux alentours de l'hiver 2020.
Texte qui n'a jamais eu aucune vocation à être publié, je l'avais écrit pour moi et moi seul.
Verdict : 100% AI.
C'est dire la fiabilité que l'on peut accorder à ce "1 faux-positif sur 24400"
Mais je suppose que je dois prendre cela comme un compliment ! J'ai fait de l'IA avant l'IA !
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Le screenshot semble édité : il indique "mainly AI, with some human-written content" tout en affirmant "100% of this text is AI", incohérence absente des exemples officiels de Pangram.
x.com/cgtvoff/status…
pbs.twimg.com/media/HSx0RyqX…
x.com/no_earthquake/…
pangram.com/blog/introduci…
this is so cool
We made an interactive explainer of the AI compute stack: from grid power and data centers to chips, racks, clusters, and workloads, plus the public companies at each layer.
Explore the infrastructure behind what @JensenHuang calls the five layer cake:
intelligence.mts.now/compute
Well at least we know he doesn’t have any insider knowledge
Leopold is about to get finished off for good
Jul 29: Situational Awareness gets margin called after 4x leveraged AI bets blow up
Jul 30: Citadel acquires his entire public portfolio in a fire sale
Jul 31: Leopold gives up all leverage, closes every short, tells investors "we let you down"
Sep 11: News outlets announce he's back. Buying options on AI and memory stocks
Sep 12: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei publishes an essay calling for the entire AI industry to slow down
Markets open today and Leopold's option holdings plummet 5.7% to 9.0%
• $AMD: -5.7%
• $BE: -7.3%
• $CRWV: -9.0%
• $SKHY: -7.5%
• $SNDK: -6.2%
• $DRAM: -6.8%
Higher ups don't want him winning





































