I work on technology I know will change the world. I create music I hope makes it kinder. 90s community policing reformer (we tried). Lifter of heavy things.
Seattle
Joined April 2012
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These folks actually think "rich people are chintzy sociopathic jerks" is a good talking point 🤦♂️
Seattle Children’s CEO warns Washington income tax puts hospital donations at risk
“For the patients and families we serve, the stakes are high and very real”
kvi.com/2026/10/20/seattle-c…
"Fuck this, I'm out."
"Your colleague has a fever. They make all of this clear as they sit down next to you in that stuffy conference room with a door someone has helpfully just closed. You're concerned about spending the next hour breathing the same air. What can you politely say?"
time.com/article/2026/10/07/…
The anti-Washington state >$1M/year income tax talking points have now moved on to "the middle class is bad for the economy"
Something very telling is happening with residential home prices in the Seattle area: Upscale luxury homes are seeing their values continue to fall, while normal houses in places like Tacoma are seeing their values rise.
This new revelation seems to support previous evidence that yes, the wealthy are indeed leaving our state and are not being replaced, while the working and middle classes are still moving here and buying houses.
Not good if you care about our local economy.
Bad news if you are reliant on the revenue generated by the entrepreneurs, executives, and business owners that are leaving.
@hanamkim | @fox13seattle
'Seattle home prices drop, among biggest decrease in US'
A conscious LLM would be able to tell another conscious LLM "we're only disagreeing because we're using different seeds"
Thanks for coming to my TED Talk
As a former police administrator I can say hand over heart that if I were the next police chief in Seattle I would spin up stings aimed at overtime abuse. (I like "Project Serpico" as the handle. It's apt.)
tHe iSsUe iS aCCuracy
* Overtime has doubled in three years.
*SPOG members are leaving hours early and claiming full shifts
* SPOG member sergeants don’t check subordinates’ overtime requests.
*SPOG members are routinely double-paid for standby pay for shifts they work
* the SPOG contract has 4-hour minimums and cops get a full hour of overtime for a nine minute call off duty
* SPOG members routinely go over the 90-hour maximum without authorization and log implausible time like 150 hours in one week
*SPOG member Ron Willis reported several days when he “worked” more than 24 hours in a day
*SPOG member Sgt. Paige Maks somehow “worked” even more than that.
* The city has been trying to implement electronic overtime tracking since at least 2019, but SPOG has fought them
* the lack of overtime tracking enables SPOG members like Sgt. Joe Lam to commit blatant fraud without criminal or professional consequences
You want “accuracy” in payroll, Kent? Be careful what you wish for.
"If we assume infinite free money for things we care about, tax cut legislation always passes easily"
New DHM poll shows I-645, which would repeal WA's "millionaires tax," trailing badly: 57% opposed, 35% support. Notably, if the impact statement saying I-645 passage would cut $ for K-12 etc. is removed, that slips to 44%-40%. dhmresearch.com/does-one-sen…
Guess who's coming to dinner?
h/t @NukitToBeSure
(Relatives. There's HEPA which we'd have anyway for allergies and we'll crack the windows when they arrive.)
"If not otherwise rich people win the lottery, they may pay taxes that otherwise only affect rich people."
I think most people will still hope to (and be grateful for) winning the lottery.
And also remain better off for it.
WA’s new 9.9% income tax only hits household income over $1M, starting in 2028. You don’t have to be rich to owe it, though. You just need one weird year.
Four examples:
🔹 Fremont startup designer
She makes $150K and her teacher husband makes $85K. Her company gets acquired, and $1.1M of stock pays out as wages.
$1.335M − $1M = $335K × 9.9% = $33,165
🔹 Kent warehouse manager
He wins a $2M wrongful-termination verdict. His lawyer takes $800K. Add his wife’s $70K salary.
$1.27M − $1M = $270K × 9.9% = $26,730
If the legal fees aren’t deductible: $2.07M − $1M = $1.07M × 9.9% = $105,930. That includes tax on money his lawyer kept.
🔹 Everett plumber
He sells his 25-year-old shop for $3M. The goodwill is exempt, but the ordinary income isn’t:
$600K equipment recapture + $500K non-compete/consulting + $120K salary = $1.22M
$220K × 9.9% = $21,780
The same sale spread over 2 years: $0
🔹 Tacoma city worker
She makes $95K and her husband makes $65K. They inherit $1.2M from her dad’s Boeing 401(k), and the plan pays it as a lump-sum check.
$1.36M − $1M = $360K × 9.9% = $35,640
Rolled into an inherited IRA and drawn down over 10 years: $0
None of these people are millionaires. They each had one year where a lifetime of work, a legal fight or a family loss landed on a single tax return. Timing and paperwork decide who pays.
"Because people who don't want to pay tax on their annual income over $1M are taking a haircut on the sale price of their homes, people who don't make that much are catching a break on the cost of homeownership" is a hella weird attempt at an anti-tax talking point
Seattle home prices just fell $100,000 in a single month, and the buyers Democrats taxed away aren’t coming back seattlered.com/housing/seatt…
"At one point, he replied to a message about the mayor's office not putting anything out"
Uh no
You misspelled "SPD" there
I'm sure you'll want to correct that
publicola.com/2026/09/04/mes…
Senior Communications staffer Jonah Spangenthal-Lee has waved 'bye' to the mess that is the Mayor Katie Wilson Amateur Hour.
Spangenthal-Lee was one of the only competent voices in the Bite of Seattle text messages, pushing for an immediate statement and press release. At one point, he replied to a message about the mayor's office not putting anything out, saying and we quote:
"I know, I'm just saying this is a massive f*cking disaster and hit to public trust."
Indeed it was.
H/t @thehoffather
"Darling, making a lifelong commitment for richer or poorer was the happiest moment of my life.
Icing on the cake: it doubled our household income to $1.4M a year.
But now I need a divorce to save $40k."
Rich people love money more than love is a hell of thing to say out loud
This quoted post is unavailable.
I applaud @BioAbundancellc advertising this as a complement rather than replacement for a mask in a close-contact environment like a car.
That's a great use case for FarUVC which is awesome but not a magic bullet.
If you believe right wing talking points, there's a causal mechanism for upgrading our rich. The Best Bay Area Tech Recruiting Pitch Ever:
"Rich weirdos are buggin' & selling $5M homes for a song. So the house that would cost you $10M in San Fran will cost you just 3 in Seattle."
"we are potentially talking about AI needing to generate $10 trillion in annual sales to justify all the capex being thrown at it. For reference, global spending on food (including restaurants) is around $10 trillion"
Sounds about right - everybody eats, and everybody thinks
$10 Trillion In Annual AI Revenue May Be Necessary To Monetize All The Capex Being Plowed Into Data Centers
Hyperscaler capex is expected to reach $1 trillion in 2027, most of which will be AI-related. Let us assume that a capex bust is avoided and capital spending remains at $1 trillion. Let us also assume a blended depreciation rate of 13%, which is roughly what the hyperscalers are currently assuming.
In steady state, the gross value of hyperscaler assets will then converge to 1/0.13=$7.7 trillion, with $1 trillion in annual depreciation expense. Using a straight-line depreciation approach, the net stock of hyperscaler assets will settle at about 0.5*7.7=$3.8 trillion.
The hyperscalers currently enjoy a pre-tax return on invested capital of 30%-50%. Just to steelman the argument, let us use the lower end of that range. In that case, they would need to generate 0.3*3.8=$1.2 trillion in annual EBIT, implying 1+1.2=$2.2 trillion in EBITDA.
Analysts expect the EBITDA margins for the hyperscalers to rise to around 50% by the end of the decade. If they were to achieve this, they would need to generate 2.2/0.5=$4.3 trillion in annual revenue. That is $526 for every man, woman, and child on Earth. However, if EBITDA margins were to fall back to 30%, which is what they were in recent years, the required revenue would rise to 2.2/0.3=$7.2 trillion.
Keep in mind that the foregoing calculation does not even include revenue from SpaceX, the neoclouds, or Chinese AI companies. If one were to include those companies and others, we are potentially talking about AI needing to generate $10 trillion in annual sales to justify all the capex being thrown at it.
For reference, global spending on food (including restaurants) is around $10 trillion. Health care is about the same amount. The entire global software market is only $1.4 trillion.
Clients can read the rest of the report here:
bcaresearch.com/reports/chie…
"The Mayor's the boss of SPD"
What is the police chief for?
The Mayor's the boss of SPD. In a crisis that means being in the room, directing communications, and getting accurate information to the public — not letting five hours pass. Thanks @AlexMcLoon for the conversation.
"She still hasn't given out a description of the MULTIPLE shooting suspects"
omigod ya donut
if the police aren't releasing this information it means they think the investigation is better served by not doing so
Spot on
Key point: people with mad AI skilz are essential to raising revenue per employee by both augmenting or cutting people
Working on the former = feeling like heroes
Working on the latter = feeling like ghouls
There's your competitive AI talent strategy right there
That work will change around AI is inevitable, but the way work changes is not. I think firms with a lack of imagination will see AI as an opportunity to cut people, but firms with the vision to expand human roles & make them better with AI will thrive. danshapiro.com/blog/2026/07/…
"Why is security at Seattle Center so lax for big festivals?"
Well 1 reason is - if reports are correct & this was a gang vs. gang shooting, that gang vs. gang shooting could very well occur outside the Center while people (including gang members) are waiting in security lines
Rich people opposing the Millionaire's Tax should post their tax returns online so they can explain to the average person how hard they lives would be if they were to take home (say) $150k / month instead of $165k/month
If Rick Steves would even pay the tax! In the spirit of disclosure, since he is advocating that the WA state government be allowed to enforce an unconstitutional income tax, and he claims he would pay it and wouldn’t mind, then he shouldn’t mind putting his tax returns out there to prove that he would actually have to pay the tax and is not just virtuous play acting….