don’t listen to me I’m retarded
Joined August 2012
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lil retard retweeted
What just happened?
The Nasdaq 100 just posted its largest daily drop since the 2020 Pandemic, with the S&P 500 erasing -$3 trillion today.
Just 24 hours ago, the Dow surged +1,600 points after the Democrats "swept" the Midterms.
So, what changed? Let us explain.
(a thread)
lil retard retweeted
I don’t think the political apparatus of either party truly understands how much the US economy depends on AI succeeding.
If the US AI growth story slows or stops, we will have a global macro crisis. The debt burden cannot be fixed without major reforms, which are politically unpalatable.
The market is sending a warning today…
lil retard retweeted
There were a plethora of posts on the timeline yesterday celebrating $STRC returning back to par.
I still believe Strategy is no longer a Bitcoin company.
It's a dividend company.
And $MSTR is nothing more than a piggy bank in the ponzi that Saylor uses to fund dividends.
Notice how BTC Yield has been down only since June, despite both the reserves and the price of BTC going higher.
This was THE metric they used to define success and shareholder value for MSTR... e.g. when they could sell more shares of MSTR to buy more Bitcoin and it be accretive rather than dilutive... until it stopped working.
Then they made up a new metric with new numbers for what's actually accretive and dilutive and never mentioned it again.
They currently have ~$4.9B of cash in their reserves.
How did they get it?
- primarily by selling billions of dollars of MSTR atm while it was still dilutive to shareholders
And remember, they've also REPURCHASED $2B of STRC while it was at a discount.
I actually think that's smart!
But, remember the preferred stock is what got them into this mess in the first place...
And now that it's back to par, they're simply going to add back to the debt by issuing more STRC to buy more Bitcoin which adds back to the dividends, obligations, ad infintum.
Not to mention, there's a big chance $MSTR itself is about to see billions of dollars in sell pressure if its removed from MSCI indices.
While I don't see there being a situation anywhere in the near term they'll be forced to sell their entire Bitcoin stack if the price goes low enough, I do think it's obvious they've shown they care much more about protecting the dividend than they do preserving accrual of BTC for the average shareholder... which is what the initial purpose of the company was supposed to be.
So I still encourage anyone who buys MSTR because they're bullish on Bitcoin to reconsider.
If you're bullish on Bitcoin, don't buy a stock that can be printed infinitely to pay someone else.
Just buy more Bitcoin.
lil retard retweeted
BREAKING: US technology stocks collapse at the open, erasing -$1.3 trillion in market cap in 30 minutes, with dozens of names down 10% or more.
Tech Stocks Today:
1. SanDisk, $SNDK: -15%
2. Western Digital, $WDC: -13%
3. Nebius, $NBIS: -13%
4. AMD, $AMD: -12%
5. Seagate, $STX: -12%
6. Qualcomm, $QCOM: -10%
7. Micron, $MU: -10%
8. Tesla, $TSLA: -10%
9. Dell, $DELL: -10%
10. Arm, $ARM: -10%
11. Marvell Technology, $MRVL: -10%
12. CrowdStrike, $CRWD: -10%
13. Intel, $INTC: -9%
14. CoreWeave, $CRWV: -8%
15. Palantir, $PLTR: -8%
16. SpaceX, $SPCX: -7%
17. TSMC, $TSM: -7%
18. Nvidia, $NVDA: -5%
19. Broadcom, $AVGO: -5%
20. Oracle, $ORCL: -5%
The Nasdaq 100 is now down -4% on the day.
We expect a highly eventful day ahead.
Turn on our post notifications @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
lil retard retweeted
open your competitor's homepage. right click. view page source. ctrl+f "GTM-"
that's their google tag manager ID. copy it
now paste this into your browser: googletagmanager. com/gtm.js?id= and add their ID on the end
a wall of code opens. it's public. it has to be, every visitor's browser downloads it. it's the file that runs their entire tracking setup
now ctrl+f "AW-"
every google ads conversion they track. if tere are 6 of them, they're optimising for 6 different things. most teams can't even tell you which one matters
now ctrl+f "event"
their conversion names, typed by their own marketers. "demo_booked." "trial_started." "sql_qualified." you're reading their funnel in the order they built it
now ctrl+f "value"
sometimes a number sits right next to the conversion. 250. 800. 1500. that's what a demo is worth to them. they typed their unit economics into a public file
now combine all four:
-the GTM ID gets you into the container
-AW- tells you how many things google is chasing for them
-the event names give you their funnel
-the values give you what each step is worth
their tracking, their funnel and their numbers. from one file they can't hide. every head of growth reading this just opened their own container
now take their demo value. if they pay $800 for a demo and you know yours is worth $2,000, you can outbid them on every keyword you both want and still win
(9 years inside google. tracking is the first thing we open on every audit → link in bio)
lil retard retweeted
I think we are already cooked. The results of Opus 5.5 is insane.
Everything I’ve posted lately was made with a tool I’ve been quietly building.
Today it’s public: aligncanvas.com beta is live.
Turn your images into 3D motion in a few clicks. Nothing to install, and your images never leave your device. It all runs in your browser.
lil retard retweeted
I asked my agent to build a collection of our favorite designers, called Deimos. Each article was written through multiple rounds of discussion and refinement between different models.
deimos.evilrabbit.com/
lil retard retweeted
If you design with AI, this is all you need
1. studio.motionsites.ai — cheaper than lovable
2. motionsites.ai — premium website prompts: 800+ 3d websites, motion sections. Paste into Claude, ship.
3. land-book.com — landing page inspiration done right.
4. recent.design— cool gallery for web design inspo
5. landdding.com — top notch landings
6. fontinlogo.com — fonts behind brands
7. godly.website — award websites
8. 60fps.design — mobile UI animations
save these for your next project
lil retard retweeted
Fun fact, at a $1.5TRN Anthropic IPO price, FTX's $500M from the 2022 Series B would be worth $39B. Ouch.
lil retard retweeted
Looks like Saylor is gonna be a problem again
* sep '27 he owes $1B if he can't get MSTR above $183
* mar '28 he owes $2B if he can't get MSTR above $433
* jun '28 he owes $1.5B if he can't get MSTR above $672
* then there's another $2B+ in potential payments out to jun '29
^ Assuming he cannot recover the share price, MSTR will be out of cash by March of '28. But even worse, they're only 5 months away from having less than the 12 months cash in reserve they promised to maintain earlier this year. *expect them to charitably interpret their USD reserve policy moving forward
> So why assume he can't get the share price where it needs to be?
Honestly maybe he gets bailed out by Bitcoin on his upcoming September converts. But keep in mind Microstrategy has had negative Bitcoin yield this year. BTC per share is down 3.7% this year. Common holders are getting brutally diluted and market stress makes this worse (BTC yield was -11% in Q3 alone). With this class of management, I do not see how Saylor convinces anybody Microstrategy should trade at a premium to Bitcoin - which means to get MSTR up ~40% to $183, you're going to need to see Bitcoin well above ~$107k. Getting this pig back to $433 then $672 for the two following converts seems essentially impossible to me unless Bitcoin goes on a sun run.
> So can't he raise more cash and kick the can down the road again?
Unfortunately the powers that be have decided they've had enough of Saylor and he's getting kicked out of the indices. Expect the problem to only compound as the conditions get worse
lil retard retweeted
So I slept on it. Woke up with the realization that Bitcoin is just not interesting to me. It used to be kind of interesting 5 years ago. Now it's just mostly boring. The things going on with AI is infinitely more interesting than Bitcoin.
Hard for me to get behind the scarcity argument for Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin is scarce (only 21 million will ever exist). But scarcity alone doesn't create value. Bitcoin's value comes from people believing it's worth something and paying for that belief. And that belief can change.
Compare it to stocks, yes stocks are also valued based on perceived value and perception of that value can change. But the main difference is the underlying business, revenue, profit, growth, etc. In other words, even if the market tanks at least I'll pay some multiple of earnings for a stock. One can argue there's an underlying business for Bitcoin as well and you can value it the same way, but I just don't see it. Hard to value Bitcoin as a multiple of earnings/growth.
Same goes for land. Land is valuable because of perceived value but that perceived value has an underlying use case. For example, sure land price can jump due to speculation and it can crash too. But in the end, a good piece of land still has value to build something on it (ie., a building on a busy city corner or a house overlooking the ocean).
You can say Bitcoin has an underlying use case, namely store of value. But its store of value use depends on its perceived value. Meaning, if let's say there's a better store of value and people don't value Bitcoin as much, then its price drops which inherently negatively impact its store of value proposition. In other words, what's Bitcoin's underlying business that I'm buying outside its store of value proposition. Even gold has an underlying some value outside of its store of value proposition. Gold is used in jewelry, electronics, etc. But still much of its use is still resting on its perceived value, ie., in jewelry. But it has thousands of years of history vs Bitcoin.
You could say Bitcoin's use is money transfer, meaning final settlement without intermediaries. But is that use case durable? I'm not convinced. It's already being disrupted, and not by banks. Stablecoins do the job better for most people, because people want to send dollars, not a volatile asset.
But I'm not betting against Bitcoin because it's possible the belief in Bitcoin doesn't die and it becomes a lasting global neutral reserve asset. I'm just not sold on it.
lil retard retweeted
The Intel situation is insane.
Intel, $INTC, is now down another -6% today after falling -29% on Friday in its biggest decline since 1971.
This puts the stock down -57% from its record high seen just 86 trading days ago.
That's -$440 billion of market cap.
But, it gets better.
Despite this historic reversal, the stock is STILL up +58% this year.
What a time to be an investor.
lil retard retweeted
They are reinventing blow from first principles
lil retard retweeted
Strategy is down 50% in Bitcoin since Saylor conceived "Digital Credit".
But probably nothing.
lil retard retweeted
[BTC Supply / M2 Money Supply] is my preferred variation of this chart.
Bitcoin's second halving in July 2016 was the moment when it became a harder money than USD.
As far as I can tell, this chart has never been created before.
The current BTC exchange rate adjusted to the M2 supply of USD in January 2009 is $27,663
lopp.net/bitcoinflation/btc-…
lil retard retweeted
I hate SF Halloween, what do you mean you're the sankey diagram from Aella's birthday gangbang
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
This image is AI-generated.
x.com/spoonedher/sta…
x.com/adolandev/stat…
lil retard retweeted
US economy depends on AI expansion - if it disappoints and it will recession is imminent. Treasuries rates will drop. #bookmark
lil retard retweeted
$MSTR CFO just resigned. A sudden departure like that is almost always a huge red flag for any company. Think Enron, WorldCom, Lehman Brothers, etc
lil retard retweeted
this open trading library is fu*cking insane.
Jane street PM leaked all internal trading strategies and made them public with code.
quants.md
Bookmark rn.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Not Jane Street strategies. All 50 are textbook SMA, RSI and momentum templates from QuantJourney, a UAE developer's open-source backtester with $29/mo and $999/yr plans. Its repo calls them "research templates, not production trading systems." None mention Jane Street.
quants.md
github.com/QuantJourneyOr…
github.com/sponsors/jpolec
