da_trader ๐บ๐ธ retweeted
THE DOT COM BUBBLE VERSUS THE โAI BUBBLEโ VISUALIZED:
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The visualization relies on custom equal-weighted indexes of 10 hand-selected stocks per period, not broad indexes like Nasdaq. Dot-com constituents were chosen retrospectively as top performers (per original post); Nasdaq rose ~6.7x from early 1995 to March 2000 peak.
x.com/lesse_jivermorโฆ
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasdaq_Coโฆ
da_trader ๐บ๐ธ retweeted
$AAOI Giving me that deja vu vibes...
Give me that DCB. Right here, right now.
๐ข LONG /MNQ ยท G2 ยท C-1310-1
Entry 28700 lmt (till 13:20) ยท Stop 28669 (-31) ยท T1 28753 (1.7R)
Test-hold of RTH VWAP + QQQ call wall 28712, 3m/5m/15m up
Risk $124 x2 ยท $186 x3 ยท $248 x4
Against the daily downtrend
$QQQ
๐ข LONG MNQ ยท G2 ยท C-1237-1
Entry 28725 lmt (till 12:45) ยท Stop 28686.5 (-38.5) ยท T1 28884 (4.1R)
Test-hold of the VWAP +2 band at 28722 plus a GEX strike, 3m/5m/15m up
Risk $154 x2 ยท $231 x3 ยท $308 x4 โ
Caution: light volume, and the GEX call wall at 28764 sits overhead
$QQQ
/mnq $QQQ 3m and 5m are both down while 10m and 15m are still up, and price is stuck around 28600-28640, so neither side has an edge right now. Sitting out the chop is a good call
Dealer levels in MNQ prices as of 10:20 ET
(MNQ was about 28,884):
Call walls (resistance and magnet):
28,895 ($QQQ ) and 28,966 ($SPY). Price
is sitting right under them.
SPY flip: about 28,905, right at price.
The QQQ flip is higher, at 29,270.
Put walls (support): 28,214 (SPY) and
28,069 (QQQ).
Regime: dealers look short gamma,
which favors trend moves over chop. A
clean break above about 28,970 could
run.
/mnq Above (stop zone): 28,423 (15m 21 EMA), 28,431 (VWAP +1), and 28,444 (yesterday's high)
Below (targets): 28,294 (the X-list SPY 760 level), 28,213 (yesterday's low), 28,179 (London low), and 28,114 (VWAP)
Pivot: 28,300, where the 15m 50 EMA and the daily 200 EMA line up $QQQ
MNQ pre-market, Wed Nov 4 $QQQ
TL;DR: Election night set a bear trap. MNQ fell to 27,611.5, reversed the whole drop, and is now at 28,425, just under yesterday's high. I lean long while it holds above 28,300. The daily trend is still down, though, so expect stop sweeps near 28,444 and 28,250 first.
Levels
Yesterday: high 28,443.75, low 28,213, close 28,301
Overnight: high 28,662, low 27,611.5. The London low was 28,178.75.
VWAP is 28,114, with the +1 band at 28,431. The 15m 50 EMA and the daily 200 EMA are both at 28,300.
Plan
Long: wait for it to hold 28,300, then reclaim 28,444โ28,510. Targets are 28,662, then 28,722.
Short: only if it loses 28,213โ28,179. Targets are 28,114, then 28,038.
Range: fade the edges between 28,250 and 28,510.
News (ET): ISM Services is at 10:00, so no entries from 9:45 to 10:15. Before that, ADP is at 8:15 and the trade balance plus Treasury refunding are at 8:30. AMD is up 7% pre-market. X sentiment leans bullish, with low confidence.
da_trader ๐บ๐ธ retweeted
If you know Econ you know tariffs were the biggest unforced error of the Trump presidency, and the root cause of what is going down tonight. Just look at the numbers; sure people donโt like higher gas prices but theyโre not the main reason food costs more and theyโre not much higher than they were during Biden. Plus theyโre recent; the tariffs began nearly day 1 of the Trump Admin and at a time when he was put in office by working class people who rebelled against the high prices they paid for everything during Biden. With tariffs Trump took those prices higher with a regressive tax on working people who donโt have the means to speculate around them in stocks. On top of that, tariffs never stoked the manufacturing boom that was promised. Itโs so obvious but for MAGA to admit tariffs were wrong would be like arguing the 2020 election wasnโt stolen
da_trader ๐บ๐ธ retweeted
THANK YOU FLORIDA!
I am humbled and grateful beyond measure. As your Governor, I will give you everything I have.ย
We are going to make life in Florida more affordable. We are going to keep our streets safe. We are going to invest in our young people so that they can attain the Florida Dream that all of us love so dearly.
Florida is the envy of the nation. I will fight day and night to keep it that way and to lift our state to even greater heights.
God Bless you, God Bless Florida, and God Bless America.
da_trader ๐บ๐ธ retweeted
Ron DeSantis is laser focused, extremely smart, overwhelmingly competent and the most effective conservative leader in the country, which it turns out might have been useful at a national level
da_trader ๐บ๐ธ retweeted
New post is out on $QQQ $SMH $IWM
-Main idea is that we have lower projections across indices with current 20-week cycle still having ~3 more weeks to complete (Nov 20 ideal date)
-Seasonality is now positive and we can expect a post election rally which IMO will fail
-This is the set up; we'll rely on technicals to navigate next 3 weeks. Cont.
da_trader ๐บ๐ธ retweeted
$SOXX โ ๐ง๐ผ ๐ง๐ต๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐ช๐ต๐ผ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ผ๐บ. 11/01/26
๐ฌ๐ฒ๐, the MayโNovember rising support (maroon line) has broken. Even the much older ascending black trendline has been violated. But ๐ฑ๐ผ๐ป'๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฎ ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ป ๐๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐ฎ ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ป ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ช๐๐ฃ. My anchored VWAP near $459.40 caught Friday's capitulation wick almost perfectly. Price rebounded roughly $14 from that level into the close. See the red ellipse and where price bottomed; perfection!
As discussed yesterday, $SOXL's net volume surged from โ20% to +5% during the final two trading hours. That is a remarkable shift in buying pressure amid apparent technical destruction and fear.
๐ ๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป: Capitulation, absorption, and a potential transfer of control back to buyers.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ป ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐. ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐ฎ ๐ฉ๐ช๐๐ฃ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฑ. As long as ~$459 holds, the opportunity remains for $SOXX to reclaim the broken trendlines and reenter the upper triangular structure.
๐ง๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐ป ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐บ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ผ๐'๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฝ.
I'm constructive on $SOXX and $SOXL. The VWAP is my line in the sand. The market maker will provide you with the bullish narrative leading into the midterms.
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