INDIANAPOLIS
Joined October 2008
Replying to @MrForcast
math matters. Appreciate your charts.
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dave7846 retweeted
Investors must now wait 470 yrs to see a return on $TSLA Some investors apparently found the fountain of youth. This is the type of epic bullshit retirement accounts are buying via the indices. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA $SPCX $VOO
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dave7846 retweeted
Home inventory growth is finally emerging in the Northeast, it's been the last one to not move at all - the October Realtor update will show that
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dave7846 retweeted
Gary, you can’t make this stuff up. This takes fraud to another level. Anthropic deserves to go bankrupt.
all you need to know: Anthropic ducked Q3 in its S-1. that omission tells you all you need. demand has drop, economics haven’t gotten worse. and a company that is allegedly built around trust is trying to skirt the truth. —- quote is from @zerohedge
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Anthropic's IPO comes with 23 unlock dates in its first year. Page 307 of the S-1 lists when insiders can sell: – Day 1: certain directors, officers, employees and consultants – Day 27 – Day 48 – Day 62 – Day 76 – Then a new window roughly every two weeks around each earnings report – Day 180: everything left in the standard lock-up – Day 365: everything else How many shares in each tranche? Blank. Every row. Now add Nasdaq's fast entry rule. A company this size can join the Nasdaq-100 after 15 trading days. Your QQQ buys because it has to. To be fair, staggered unlocks exist to avoid one giant cliff on day 181. That part is responsible design. But the math is still the math. Insiders get 23 exits over a year. Your index fund gets one entry, at whatever price the market sets that day.
🚨Anthropic just opened its books for the first time. 335 pages. Here's what's inside, in order: – Revenue: $41 million in 2023. $16.3 billion in the first six months of 2026 – Q2 alone: $11.6 billion. More than 2023, 2024 and 2025 combined – First operating profit: $974 million in Q2, after five losing quarters in a row – Net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half. $72.4 billion of it is the rising value of its own convertible notes – $131.7 billion in cash and short-term investments. Probably the largest cash pile ever brought to an IPO – 11,900 customers paying over $100,000 a year. At the end of 2023: about 20 – Top five customers: roughly 25% of revenue – Nearly half of sales flow through Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Its investors, its landlords and its competitors – Up to $120.5 billion promised to Elon Musk's SpaceX for compute – Seven co-founders keep 50.1% of the vote. A trust elects most of the board – 5% of the company placed in a public benefit fund – A risk factor warning AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity" – A founders' letter asking you not to see your purchase in "purely transactional terms" Price range: blank. Shares offered: blank. Valuation: blank. The company wrote 335 pages about what it's worth. It left blank the one number you'll pay.
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dave7846 retweeted
Ask yourself why Anthropic magically needs hundreds of billions of dollars a year for compute after IPO, when they were paying essentially nothing before. Ask yourself why OpenAI was projecting $300 billion in losses on compute through 2030 when Anthropic was claiming to be profitable. It’s the same business. Ask yourself why the hell wouldn’t Anthropic just pay the $7.5 billion of original convertible notes with $120 billion cash on hand rather than letting it convert to $108 billion of equity. Don’t be an idiot.
This quoted post is unavailable.
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You are telling me that the company with the largest IPO this year earns majority of their data center revenue from the company with the second largest IPO this year
ANTHROPIC AGREED TO SPEND UP TO $120.5B ON COMPUTE FROM SPACEX $SPCX The deals are with SpaceX's AI unit, for access to Nvidia $NVDA chips Once all the capacity is delivered, expected in December 2026, Anthropic will pay about $3.1B a month. The deals run into 2029. After early periods ending in January and March 2027, either side can cancel with 90 days' notice.
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WHAT IS A BUBBLE? Anthropic may well be the only company in IPO history whose own prospectus reads like a bedtime story you probably shouldn't finish. Most companies spend their S-1 reassuring investors they won't go bankrupt. Anthropic, admirably, takes the time to flag that they might accidentally end civilisation. The investment thesis has never been simpler: we're not buying growth, we're buying existential risk with a nice valuation multiple. Death, but make it venture-backed. 😂
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Only a complete clown would say that a company whose PE is constantly rising now 450 to 1, earnings declining, sales declining, CAPX increasing, OPX increasing, and burning cash, is underpriced. The only thing more idiotic than the comment, is the fact that another would actually believe them. I’m revising my 12 month PT to $38. $TSLA
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Trump: We will not strike Iran today
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dave7846 retweeted
There's not enough popcorn in the world for the "Starshield Hearings" in Q1 2027. 🍿🍿🍿 $SPCX
So it was you ? Just answer the subpoena truthfully and we can figure out the truth.
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dave7846 retweeted
Replying to @FinanceLancelot
Guppy level death is a great band name. Maybe Jensen should put it on a T shirt
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dave7846 retweeted
SpaceX CFO panicked on the earnings call ‘We installed them in the racks but we haven’t turned them on yet and there’s a very important reason why a CFO would jump in and cover their butt, because the second you turn on those GPUs you have to start depreciating them; you have to start booking the loss of the capital that you spent to buy them’ ‘If they are not turned on yet you don’t have to encor that depreciation expense and if you take that exchange and the gigawatts and the CFO, that’s why our earnings are so great because we’re not depreciating all these assets’ ‘They are just buying these things, buying them in thousands and they are just putting them on shelves; they aren’t even installing them, they can’t install them because they can’t get the data center built’
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💉💉💉
Oh no!! 🤯 Now we have 5 world-renowned pro athletes who died suddenly in the last 48 hours. All of them well under 50. All of them fit healthy and Stewart’s family said that he died suddenly after a medical episode. Guess what they all had in common? 😢
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$0.12 in GAAP earnings for the company that was supposed to dominate autos. The fans aren't intellectually honest enough to admit they were absolutely wrong about Tesla's business. The skeptics were right. The bulls were wrong!
Replying to @GordonJohnson19
4/5 Strip it out of 3Q26A results, and you get: Gross margin: 19.6% → 17.8% (in line, not a beat) Op margin: 2.6% → 1.0% (below Q2’s 1.4%) GAAP EPS: $0.22 → $0.12 vs $0.20 est. Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48 → $0.38 vs $0.44 est. On EPS and op margin, a miss.
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dave7846 retweeted
“Optimus can’t wear out after a month” Musk #Tesla $tsla finance.yahoo.com/video/musk…
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dave7846 retweeted
🚨🚨SpaceX Goosed It’s Valuation with Fake Boring Company Assessment 🚨🚨 #SpaceX $spcx
Buried in $SPCX's 10-Q: $561M of that record Q3 profit isn't rockets. It isn't Starlink. Boring Company raised a new round in September, so SpaceX marked up its stake in Elon's tunnel company and booked a $561M unrealized gain. No cash changed hands.
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dave7846 retweeted
2K...?
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🇪🇺🇷🇺 Ursula von der Leyen says RUSSIA IS USING MASS MIGRATION as a weapon against EUROPE The EU chief accuses Russia of deliberately pushing migrants toward European borders to overwhelm authorities, spread fear and divide the continent. She now wants new emergency powers to deal with these situations. Brussels has SPENT YEARS defending migration and asylum as part of Europe's values. Now it's warning that hostile governments can exploit those same systems to destabilize Europe. Completely ridiculous. And pretty revealing who is actually behind it all... Writer: Oliver
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dave7846 retweeted
$NVDA MAJORITY OF AI USERS REPORT GPU UTILIZATION AT 50% OR LESS — VENTUREBEAT
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수백조 원씩 칩 사 모으던 빅테크들이 긴장할 만한 소식이 오늘 새벽에 보도됨. "꼭 그렇게 비싼 반도체랑 전기를 무식하게 갈아 넣어야만 AI를 만들 수 있냐?"며 정반대 길을 파던 스타트업 두 곳이 오늘 동시에 대형 사고를 쳤기 때문임. 1. "어린아이는 책 몇 권만 읽어도 말 배우는데, 왜 AI는 인터넷 절반을 다 읽어야 해?" — 창업 1년 된 회사에 1.4조 원이 몰림 (블룸버그 보도) - 지금까지 AI 업계의 법칙은 단순했음. 더 똑똑한 AI를 만들려면 무조건 엔비디아 칩을 수십만 개 더 사고, 거대한 데이터센터를 지어서 돈과 전기로 찍어 눌러야 한다는 거였음. - 그런데 오늘 블룸버그 보도에 따르면, 스탠퍼드대 박사 형제와 일론 머스크의 뇌신경 칩 회사 '뉴럴링크' 출신 연구원이 세운 갓 1년 된 스타트업 '플래핑 에어플레인즈(Flapping Airplanes)'가 몸값 약 8.4조 원(60억 달러)을 인정받으며 단숨에 약 1.4조 원(10억 달러)의 투자금을 쓸어 담음. - 이들이 던진 질문은 아주 직관적임. "사람 뇌는 아주 적은 정보만 보고도 금방 배우는데, 왜 지금 AI는 인터넷 전체 데이터를 다 집어삼키고 수백조 원어치 칩을 돌려야만 똑똑해질까? 지금의 AI 학습 방식 자체가 비효율적인 거다." - 회사 이름을 '퍼덕이는 비행기(Flapping Airplanes)'로 지은 이유도 재밌음. 옛날에 인류가 하늘을 날겠다고 새처럼 날개를 퍼덕이는 기계를 만들다 실패하고, 결국 '고정된 날개'라는 완전히 다른 원리로 비행기를 띄웠듯, 무식하게 반도체와 전기만 때려 박는 지금의 방식 대신 '적은 데이터와 적은 칩만으로도 똑똑해지는 새로운 방식'을 만들겠다는 뜻임. - 더 흥미로운 건 투자자 명단임. 실리콘밸리 최고 투자사(세쿼이아 등)뿐 아니라 구글(GV)과 엔비디아까지 직접 돈을 싸 들고 들어감. 엔비디아 입장에서도 "만약 진짜로 칩을 적게 쓰는 기술이 성공해서 우리 비싼 칩이 안 팔리면 어쩌지?" 싶으니 미리 돈을 대며 보험을 든 셈임. 2. 사람도, 비싼 서버도 필요 없다 — AI가 스스로 연구해서 4개월 만에 찍어낸 노트북용 AI '플린트(Flint)' 공개 (와이어드 보도) - 같은 날 미국 IT 매체 와이어드(Wired)에 공개된 또 다른 스타트업 '리커시브(Recursive)'의 새 코딩 AI '플린트(Flint)'는 한 술 더 뜸. - 원래 새로운 AI 모델 하나를 바닥부터 만들려면 연봉 수억 원짜리 개발자 수백 명이 반년 넘게 매달려 실험하고 코드를 짜야 함. - 그런데 세계적인 AI 석학 리처드 소처가 세운 이 회사는 자체 개발한 연구원 AI('유레카 머신')한테 아예 새로운 AI 개발을 통째로 맡겨버림. - 그러자 이 연구원 AI가 혼자서 아이디어를 내고, 실험을 돌리고, 새로운 뇌 구조와 반도체 최적화 코드까지 직접 짜서 아주 작은 인력만으로 단 4개월 만에 새 AI 모델을 완성해 냄. 사람이 AI를 만들던 시대에서 'AI가 스스로 다음 세대 AI를 연구해 찍어내는 시대'가 실제로 열린 거임. - 심지어 이렇게 AI가 직접 깎아 만든 '플린트'는 수천만 원짜리 데이터센터 서버가 아니라, 우리가 카페에서 쓰는 일반 맥북(노트북)이나 개인 PC에서 바로 돌아감. 평소엔 뇌 전체(400억 파라미터)를 다 쓰지 않고 질문에 필요한 핵심 뇌세포(25억 파라미터)만 골라서 켜지는 구조로 설계해, 비싼 서버 비용 한 푼 없이 내 노트북 안에서 빠르고 똑똑하게 코딩을 해냄. 한쪽에서는 빅테크들이 한 분기에 수십조 원씩 쏟아부으며 '무식한 물량전'의 끝을 달리고 있지만, 다른 한쪽에서는 "그 비싼 칩과 전기, 그리고 개발 인건비를 10분의 1로 줄여서 똑같은 결과를 내겠다"는 기술들이 무서운 속도로 치고 올라오고 있음. 어느 산업이든 특정 부품과 비용이 감당 못 할 만큼 비싸지면, 결국 판을 뒤집는 건 '돈을 더 많이 쓰는 쪽'이 아니라 '돈 안 들이고도 돌아가게 만드는 쪽'이었음. 지금 AI와 반도체 판에서도 바로 그 변화와 격변이 시작되고 있음.
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