Patrick Dugan (@doog) profile picture

designer, engineer, generalist. previously @messenger @chanzuckerberg, @quora, @nextdoor, @designerfund, @google. @uw husky. @mariners fan.

Seattle, WA
Joined November 2007
Photo by Patrick Dugan (@doog)Photo by Patrick Dugan (@doog)Photo by Patrick Dugan (@doog)Photo by Patrick Dugan (@doog)Photo by Patrick Dugan (@doog)Photo by Patrick Dugan (@doog)Photo by Patrick Dugan (@doog)Photo by Patrick Dugan (@doog)Photo by Patrick Dugan (@doog)Photo by Patrick Dugan (@doog)
Patrick Dugan retweeted
My friend made a really impressive app. It's live and has users. He has no idea where it's hosted.
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every launch vid now is like *cavemen making fire* *model t* *wright bros* *moon landing* *nuclear bomb detonation* “every great innovation was once called crazy… that’s why today we’re launching AI-powered automated accounts receivable for operationally complex services businesses”
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
matt predictably sharp on ANT S1 but goddamn is he always funny too bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
I actually think Netflix is suffering right now for the opposite reason. From the newsletter yesterday:
People are losing the attention span to even watch 30 minute TV shows as short form video eats the world.
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
This describes every data led software company and why software factories will not produce taste
A24 vs. Netflix shows the taste trap tech companies fall into: they want the results of good taste without investing in it. Being a tastemaker means taking risks before the data comes in. Waiting for data means you're not setting trends, you're following them.
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
I was considering offering a million dollar bet against 17% GDP growth but I figure it's time to let other people get in on the action
any Anthropic employees wanna bet on this? perhaps with some of those juicy stock options? i'll take the under
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
Replying to @hassanrahim
they're trying to cut open the bird to find the song
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
Distribution is not a moat. Execution is not a moat. Brand is not a moat.
Moats! Does anyone have one anymore? Yes. Yes, they do. But only a small subset of what people call moats create real long-term value and defensibility. Not actually a moat: 1. Distribution: This does matter more than ever. Building products has gotten easier, but getting them to customers has not. Distribution, however, does not create durable defensibility. It helps create the raw ingredients for one, but it is not itself a moat. 2. Execution: Yes, speed is critical for startups. But a company that has to sprint forever is not a good business. Ultimately, it will misstep, slow down, and competition will catch up. Speed gives a company more shots on goal as it tries to build a great product and a great business, but it must eventually find something more durable. 3. Brand: The idea is that when everyone is building the same thing, the most resonant brand will win. But for startups, brand works more like customer acquisition spend: Put money in, get growth out. It’s not something that will effectively keep others from competing long-term. Brand can become a true moat over time (as with Coke or Nike or Apple), but it just takes too long to really matter for most startups. What you're looking for is compounding advantages: a self-reinforcing flywheel that gets stronger and stronger over time, ultimately making a company very hard to compete with long-term. There are only four compounding advantages that really matter. Every major tech company has at least one: 1. Switching costs: The more deeply embedded a product is in the way a customer works, the harder it is for that customer to switch. This increases retention and revenue per customer, which can be reinvested into the product. 2. Network effects: The more users a product has, the better it gets for everyone. This increases engagement and attracts more users. 3. Scale economies: The more volume a company has, the larger and more efficient its operations can be. This lowers unit costs, funding lower prices or a better product at the same price, further driving up volume. 4. Data effects: The more usage a product has, the more data it generates. This data can be used to improve the product and increase usage. If you can’t see the potential for any in the startup you’re considering joining, that’s a red flag. In today’s incredible post, @danhockenmaier shares a simple framework you can run in about an hour after getting an offer: 1. Identify a startup’s compounding advantage 2. Gauge how strong it could get 3. Measure whether it’s working Inside: dozens of real company examples, the specific metrics to track, and benchmarks for what good and great look like. Read it here: lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-t…
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Where can I bet every dollar ever printed against this
SpaceX will capture an asteroid with more gold than Earth's crust and land Optimus robots carrying American flags on Mars within 8 years. Starship parks Psyche in geosynchronous orbit over an American Pacific atoll. No humans within 50 miles. Optimus robots extract the metals. Delivery to Earth is free though some burns up on entry. Bezos said 15 years ago Earth gets zoned residential as heavy industry moves to space. Vast distances make emissions irrelevant. The same fleet lands on Mars in 8 years max. Optimus robots deploy solar panels, batteries, compute, and Starlinks for 4K video before humans arrive. SpaceX moves the factories off the planet.
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
Holy shit, just found an article that completely agrees with all of my priors, I can't wait to share this
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
Turns out the friction of having to learn photoshop was a crucial firewall protecting society from the terrible taste of small business owners
Look at this stupid AI bullshit lmao
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
Art Deco died because we killed off our craft industry, the same ecosystem that fed the beaux-arts movement before it. I don’t think there’s a single book that tells the full history, but Damian seems to have compiled it in his head and we’re lucky when he shares it.
Art Deco didn't die from being exhausted, it got blacklisted. Its three main phases - Zigzag, PWA / Stripped Classical, & Streamline - weren't exactly sequential, they overlapped all throughout the 30s. But what happened after 1929 wasn't just that zig zag Deco became too expensive, it was evolving from the 'Return to Order' (WW1) beginnings towards a more robust machine age adapted classicism. Earlier funding collapsed from private elites to the state, and a more civic form emerged - Stripped Classical/Classical Moderne. It was transatlantic, global. The American WPA, PWA, democracies and authoritarian regimes across the West all embraced it because the goal was the same: instill optimism, civic-mindedness, and resilience. Put your skilled artists & artisans to work. It was seen as worthy recieving state funding for its public face - blending both classical & modern, a forward facing embrace between design, industry & craft. That more colorful zig zag form was made logistically difficult to revive after 29, then that difficulty was made permanent. Deco needed a 50-year Beaux-Arts ecosystem - terracotta kilns like Gladding McBean and Atlantic Terra Cotta, plasterers, metal foundries, carvers, mosaicists - & that ecosystem took two hits. The 29 crash bankrupted the firms & dissolved the apprenticeship pipeline, then the war shifted what was left to war industries. By 1948 a fully crafted lobby was hard to build like 1926 even if you wanted to. Hard isnt impossible. With a regular cycle craft revives with demand, but revival was blocked. Tax codes, FAR, federal budgets, and curtain-wall specs all rewarded flat, uncrafted surfaces, so there wasnt much incentive to maintain the ateliers. The firmest lockout was ideological. To make High Modernism the post-war approved standard, its promoters had to discredit what came before. Politically, Stripped Classicism was rebranded as "fascistic" because Hitler, Mussolini and Stalin had used identical forms. Culturally Deco, especially Streamline, was the 1930s World's Fair spirit: mass-produced household objects made beautiful, futuristic, optimistic, commercial & everyday. High Modernism was austere, 'European' & highbrow, it treated that populist optimism as kitsch. That created a self-fulfilling loop: disincentivize the decorative, let craft firms die, then accuse dead craft as proof decorative design is infeasible. Hence the narrative that Deco simply "fell from public taste" is fake. It was slowed by the war, logistically hollowed out by '48, then ideologically blacklisted afterwards - making way for [indirect] tacit state support through modernist capture this time with the opposite design ethos: (mid century)"modernism". The people never chose the glass modernist box over Deco. The people were simply never asked.
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
really powerful "alright, lets see what we got here" stance
Tom Cruise Looking at Eren Yeager's Rumbling at MAPPA's 15th Anniversary Exhibition.
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The first star of a Stanley Kubrick movie to say “TikTok”
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
Expired: AI will take your job. Tired: A human working with AI will take your job. Wired: A human working with an unreleased model at an AI company will take your job.
THE REAL IMPLICATION OF THE AI MATH BREAKTHROUGHS I wrote about an element of AI that needs to get more discussion. The best public models will always be far behind what the labs can work with internally. Think about what this means for intelligence-intensive industries.
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We’ve lost an icon. Margaret Hamilton, a computer science pioneer best known for her work at MIT leading development of the flight software for the Apollo missions to the moon, has died at 90. Read about her legacy via MIT News: news.mit.edu/2026/margaret-h…
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
Always been a sucker for great micro copy, this is a nice gem in Linear's activity
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
In an age dominated by technology, in which efficiency and profit often take precedence, it is so important that we continue to cultivate a spirit of contemplation and allow time and space for beauty. Such an attitude will greatly help humanity, especially young people, to discover the ability of art to uplift and reveal the depths of the human spirit and our openness to the divine. Contemplation presents a marvelous opportunity to encounter the God who is Beauty.
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
The best to ever do it
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Patrick Dugan retweeted
It's actually INSANE how prescient this was. They made this in 2011! This is basically what it's like to use computers now. It's barely exaggerated
Firing up the Slop Cannon today. slop.cc
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