Jon Boyes

🇬🇧 The OBR just dropped 200 pages on Healey's first Budget. I read it so you don't have to. Tax is at a record 37.9% of GDP by 2027-28, past the old high of 37.2%. Then it climbs every single year to 38.6%. Frozen thresholds are doing way too much to workers since they get a pay rise, hand more of it over. 1.8x the national minimum wage now classes you as a higher tax rate payer - what the fuck? Borrowing @ £133bn this year. In March they said £115bn. Seven months later it's £18bn worse. And it's higher than March in every year of the forecast because neither the OBR nor treasury has a clue what they’re doing. Debt interest at £39bn in 2019-20. £109bn last year 😩 £160bn by 2031-32 😩😩£15bn of this year's bill is extra bc inflation's pushing up index linked gilts, and we know the uk has a structural inflation problem, partly due to the relationship between treasury and BoE. Headroom is £14.5bn, down from £21.7bn at the last Budget. Keep the fuel duty freeze going and it's £10.2bn. The OBR gives Healey a 56% chance of hitting his OWN FUCKING rule. Debt will peak at 97.3% of GDP, still 95.6% in 2031-32. Five years and it barely moves which is completely against his fiscal demands. How it affects you? Growth 1% next year with gdp per capita basically the same as it has been since 2019 Inflation 3.4% when March said 2%. Zero real pay growth in 2027. Living standards in 2030-31? Just 2% above pre-pandemic. But don't worry. You're getting a £100 council tax rebate. Jesus Christ.