FLORIDA TURNOUT UPDATE — OCTOBER 26, 12:12 PM EDT Republicans now lead Democrats by 9,380 ballots. Nearly 2.9 million people have already voted. As of 12:12 p.m. today: 🔴 Republicans: 1,155,607 🔵 Democrats: 1,146,227 🟣 NPAs: 527,032 ⚪ Other parties: 70,643 📬 Vote-by-mail: 1,428,779 returned Democrats lead Republicans by 103,899. 🗳️ Early voting: 1,470,733 participants Republicans lead Democrats by 113,279. 27.73% of registered Democrats have voted, compared with 20.35% of registered Republicans. But Republicans have more registered voters, and they currently have more ballots recorded. NPA voters make up almost one-quarter of Florida’s registration, but only 18.18% of participation so far. More than half a million have voted. Many more have yet to participate. And please remember: we know these voters’ registration. We do not know who they voted for. I’m tracking the county reports here: florida-live-turnout.politic…

FLORIDA TURNOUT UPDATE | OCTOBER 22 Nearly 2 million ballots have been cast. Democrats are still ahead, but Republicans are closing the gap. As of approximately 9 PM tonight, Florida has reported 1,966,485 ballots cast: 1,218,570 by mail and 747,915 through early voting. Here's where we stand: 🔵 Democrats: 797,165 (40.54%) 🔴 Republicans: 766,858 (39.00%) 🟣 NPAs: 354,587 (18.03%) ⚪ Others: 47,875 (2.43%) Democrats lead Republicans by 30,307 ballots. While Democrats are leading vote-by-mail returns by 85,092 ballots. Republicans, meanwhile, have built a 54,785 ballot advantage in early in-person voting. Democrats are building their advantage through the mail while Republicans are eating into it at the polls, and they're doing it faster than Democrats are expanding their mail lead. Between yesterday morning's and this morning's reports, Democrats added 10,080 ballots to their mail advantage. Republicans added 15,596 to their early-voting advantage. The net result? The Democratic lead dropped from 60,255 to 54,739 ballots. By tonight, it's down to 30,307. Keep in mind that 34 counties began early voting on Monday. As of tonight, Thursday, October 22, early voting is underway in 48 counties. The 11 counties that began early voting today produced a Republican advantage of 11,642 ballots. That alone accounts for nearly half the narrowing since this morning. Broward's reported early-voting numbers are still a day behind, even though its mail returns are current. So tonight's statewide margin is incomplete and could change once those votes are incorporated.. Republicans entered this election with a statewide registration advantage of 1,540,860 voters. Democrats represent just 30.25% of Florida's registered voters, yet they're responsible for 40.54% of the ballots reported so far. That's an overperformance of more than 10 percentage points relative to their registration share. In a state where Republicans have spent years building a massive voter registration advantage, Democrats are outperforming their share of the electorate in actual participation. Still, Republicans have a substantially larger pool of registered voters who haven't voted yet, giving them a better opportunity to close the gap. Then, we have the NPAs. They represent 24.48% of Florida's registered voters, but just 18.03% of ballots cast so far. That's a sizable participation gap, and one of the biggest variables in this election. I've said it before, and I'll keep saying it: NPAs are not Democrats waiting to be counted. They're also not Republicans by default. Their voting behavior varies by geography, demographics, and election cycle. My projection is that Republican in-person participation will continue putting pressure on and exceed the Democratic mail advantage by the weekend. By Saturday, October 24, all 67 Florida counties will have early voting underway. That means a much larger electorate entering the count, including counties where Republicans have historically performed well. If the current pace continues, Republicans have a credible path to overtaking Democrats in reported turnout by party registration before Election Day. That doesn't mean Republicans are winning the election. It means registered Republicans could be casting more ballots than registered Democrats. We still don't know how many Republicans are crossing over, how NPAs are breaking, or what the Election Day electorate will look like. I've made my projections, but am keeping them close for now. The Brito Takeaway: Democrats have every reason to be encouraged. Their participation relative to registration is impressive, particularly against a Republican registration advantage of more than 1.5 million voters. But Republicans are showing up, too, and the acceleration in their in-person voting isn't the "stay home" variable many anticipated.