Chief Research Officer, Gydence Group. Taking care of Srs Bzns. Gouverneur Morris Stan. Purveyor of bespoke hot takes.
Dallas, TX
Joined April 2007
- Tweets4.1K
- Following238
- Followers801
- Likes206
Pinned Tweet
Harris went from +29 among 18-29 voters in WI in the NYT’s August poll to -18 today. Crosstab truthering is dangerous, but a 47 point swing in a demographic group really should force you to ask some serious questions about methodology, coverage biases, weighting decisions, etc.
Feels like the right time to remind the world that Scott Pelley as absolutely yoked.
Scott Pelley, the longtime CBS News journalist, was fired by the network a day after he harshly criticized its leadership in a staff meeting.
nyti.ms/3SgwcCY
These are not just the two best organizations in the NBA. These are the two best organizations in professional sports.
4 Down in the Sunday NYT crossword is a clear error. The band famously was militant about the fact their name Eagles, not The Eagles.
In what has to be some kind of modern record, HarrisX missed the final RCV margin by 36 points in a poll of 3000+ voters. empirereportnewyork.com/fix-…
We shouldn’t let the pollsters off the hook here, but the data modelers/voter file firms deserve some of blame here. Pollsters use their likely voter models for the electorate. They’re really bad with young voters. Really bad. Not the only issue, but a contributing factor.
The big question heading into the NYC race was what % of the electorate would be 18-44. @rudnicknoah had looked into this
Manhattan Institute had it ~ 24%
Marist had it ~ 30%
Emerson had it ~ 35%
The actual result was 18-44 year olds were 48-49% of the electorate 🚨
The education problem remains the hardest thing to solve for pollsters. Low-trust voters are just not answering the phone. Yes, the Times is correctly weighting that 18% to 31%, but all pollsters should have real fears about the representativeness of the 18% to project the 31%.
Must watch for everyone. It's a MAJOR achievement by @dellavolpe and the team to have done 50 editions of this poll. It's a remarkable study, always interesting in the moment but even more interesting when the full picture is viewed. A+ work all around.
John Della Volpe (@dellavolpe), IOP's Director of Polling, breaks down several key findings in the 50th Edition of the Harvard Youth Poll, touching on young Americans' financial hardship & shifting traditional life goals. Read more: ken.sc/s25-poll
msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/…
The highlight of the Mavs season was losing the second play-in to Memphis so we didn't have to be subjected to this...
Obviously a 29% approval rating is NOT GREAT, but for all the Republicans dunking and writing the Democratic Party obituaries- in the same poll in Sept. 2017, the GOP was in a worse position, same fav but 8 points higher unfav. Stuff changes 🤷♂️
CNN Poll: Democratic Party’s favorability drops to a record low | CNN Politics cnn.com/2025/03/16/politics/…
I was fortunate to get to interact with Senator Simpson a few times during my college days. A pure pleasure to be around. He wasn't just politician funny, he was legit hilarious (in addition to being generous, knowledgable, and passionate about making peoples lives better).
Not enough is made of this: Trump's first term was the only period in the last 25 years where more than 10% of the population rated the economy as excellent. His cultural politics have never been some silver bullet (🥁). He just had/ran a good economy.
His grandparents are of Irish descent, from County Mayo. Really going for the @jbarro vote hard.
From America’s second most famous Maltese-American politician @PeteButtigieg
I’m proud to represent Wyandotte in the Michigan Senate. It’s a blue-collar town that has voted for Trump and for me, a Democrat.
More Democrats should be paying attention to places like Downriver if we want to win nationwide. Thank you @SenatorSlotkin for highlighting us.
A good basic heuristic is that elected officials and politicians, win campaigns because of certain factors and in spite of certain factors. Successful administrations understand the difference between the two. Poor administrations confuse them.
Fun fact from this poll: Hispanics are more likely to favor tariffs on Mexico (38%) than Canada (35%). Within the MOE, of note nonetheless.
President Trump’s deportation policy finds majority approval overall - just as most voters said they wanted during the campaign - and that extends to sending troops to the border, too. tinyurl.com/msx8sjjb
