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Vadym Denysenko, expert of the Institute for the Future, shared his thoughts regarding Telegram and Pavel Durov's arrest: 1. Durov knew that he's on the wanted list and went to Paris. So this looks like a conscious surrender into the hands of justice. Or someone convinced him that nothing would happen and everything would be ok. 2. So far, his possible motives are unclear (if Durov indeed decided to surrender). There are two options. The first one: a Russian game, although Durov looks like a kamikaze in it. The second option is his conscious cooperation with the West against Russians. Of course, until we understand his motivation, these are all just guesses. 3. It's important to note that it's all taking place with the possible meeting of Putin and Durov in Baku in the background that didn't happen (Russians wrote a lot about it.) It's more likely that Durov was supposed to meet with someone from the Russian official delegation. And it's probable that he decided to go to Paris after this meeting. 4. Several days ago, @future_ui presented some Russian sociology. So, when asked "Which social media do you use to get information," 69% say it's Telegram (Vkontakte media is used by 40%, odnoklasniki media by 17%.). In the past few years, the Kremlin has made several attempts to "cleanse" Telegram, but it still remains the main problem of Russian authorities because the processes there are not controlled (an undesired post in Vkontakte gets deleted in an hour tops, for example). Nothing gets deleted in Telegram. To be more precise, it might get deleted under FSB pressure on a specific person, not through cooperation with Telegram. Although it's impossible to rule out Durov's cooperation with FSB, and it's possible that it exists, although not as productive as the FSB would want it to be. 5. Russia doesn't have an opportunity to build a sovereign internet without Chinese technology. They refuse to involve Chinese technology (Russia even postponed the building of 5G network not to be in complete dependency from Chinese vendors.) Controlling Telegram and shutting down YouTube would actually mean a sovereign internet for Russia in its political segment. 6. We also need to understand that Telegram is much more than the post-Soviet space. It's practically the whole world. There are over 300 million Telegram users in India. It's also Latin and South America, and a large part of the Far East countries. Control over Telegram is very important in the information wars of the 21st century all over the world. 7. What could Durov negotiate with the Kremlin about? Probably about selling or transferring control over the messenger. He did have positive and productive cooperation history on previous projects. Why didn't they reach an agreement (if they indeed didn't reach it)? Probably due to money issues, or the amount of money. Why did he make the decision to surrender? It's hard to answer now. It might have been his conscious decision, and simply foolishness with coming to Paris under someone's guarantees. And it well may be a part of the larger game by the Russians. It's too early now to give some forecasts regarding Telegram as a messenger. There will probably be no quick decisions.