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New York, USA
Joined July 2016
Live From Studio 6B retweeted
DataRepublican (small r)
@DataRepublican20h
I've been asked about early voting analysis. The dilemma I have is that my platform is big enough such that being too blunt can have an effect on morale. I'll push out new states and tools out to my website soon, but won't announce them here on 𝕏. I will be giving @realJeremyCarl my predictions a week in advance so he can hold me accountable after Election Day. You MUST turn out and bring their friends, and brace yourself on election night. Even TX is going to be a fight.
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
NEWS — President Trump will hold a rally in Corinth, Mississippi, on Monday, per @magnoliatribune. The announcement comes as @Axios reports that Senate Republicans are increasingly concerned about Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s re-election bid against Democrat Scott Colom. Democrats have announced a $1.2 million ad buy supporting Colom.
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
Two weeks out, there’s only 2 options… Either this is the biggest midterm landslide of the 21st century, or the final nail in the coffin for the mainstream polling industry.
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
🚨Scott's Scoreboard (October 20) ✅Safe/Likely Senate Seats: D 47 R 46 ✅Dems have 56% chance of winning Senate ✅To Keep Control of Senate, R's must win 4 of 5 Tossups scottsscoreboard.com/
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
We finally have results from 217 counties across Texas. After the first day in early voting, Democratic primary voters hold a D+8.4 point lead over Republicans compared to R+10.9 4 years ago. Similar to the county numbers, this is a 19.3 swing in primary voters.
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
Zachary Donnini
@ZacharyDonniniOct 20
Florida Early Voting | Day 1 🔴 2024: R+25.0 (377,035 votes) 🔴 2026: R+0.4 (171,015 votes) 🔵 24.6-point shift toward Democrats Republicans still have plenty of time to make up ground, and the first day of in-person early voting has generally been their weakest.
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Being an exceptionally talented musician is one thing. But to stand before such high-caliber fellow musicians, a large audience, and cameras—all while remaining composed, communicating skillfully and effectively, showing genuine enjoyment, and staying focused on the creative process—that is what truly amazes me.
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
In 2016, on Tuesday, looking at data rolling in, I told the then-global head of rates at JPM that Trump would win. It was not, shall we say, a consensus call at the time. So I want to talk a little bit about what I'm seeing right now, since the timeline is going crazy. On a trading desk, it matters more to be right than to be popular, and it matters more to be right than to predict what you want to happen. I have the curse of being a mathematician by training. So I still have the muscles, even if I don't use them as much. Right now I would say this: 1 - Anyone who thinks they know anything with high confidence you should immediately discount in this election cycle. 2 - The error bars on races, especially the swing races in the Senate, are likely so large that polling may not be particularly predictive. 3 - There are conflicting cross factors that really are making a mess out of some of the traditional polling which is causing this. Namely, what I'm seeing is a few things that gives me major heartburn. First, non-response rates to polls are now so high I think it's impossible to know if we have a representative sample of any subgroup. We can 100% get the aggregate weighting correct to voter turnout, but when you model your R sample at 10% crossover votes and get 4%, or your I sample at mildly D leaning at +2% but instead get +10%, it means all your re-weighting was an exercise in false specificity. Second, we have major conflicts in the data. People are claiming they did not vote for Trump in 2024 when we are pretty sure they did, and we are getting R samples in some swing states where if the sample is correct about the sides voting in 2024, Harris would be president (she's not, if you've been in a coma). At the same time, we have young people looking maybe way more like they did in 2022 than 2026, and we know we are missing a large chunk of that sample because they never fucking answer the phone, so the net result is... ... ...? Yeah, nobody knows. Third, mutually combative forces. Anti-incumbency is a thing in mid-term elections, it's also a thing in American politics where "fuck the guy in charge I hate it here" seems to be stronger than partisanship in an increasing number of cases. This means that helps Dems in red states but hurts Dems in blue states? The reverse would be true for Republicans. These kinds of forces produce compression. Fourth, social media and Twitter are not the real world, but the distortionary forces here are influencing the polling landscape, where I would imagine the most media-connected people are also the ones taking polls, which leads to the invisible sample also being the ones in a different discourse bubble than the ones on here. The punch line is simple: take any error bar and triple it. Quadruple if you're in Maine or something. We don't know anything, and any confident prediction about Dems taking the Senate or Republicans holding the House are almost certainly wrong. Not in their specific outcome, but rather, in good process. All pigs are fish therefore 2+2 = 4 type thinking. Right now, depending on how you want to torture the data, you can see any outcome from R/R to D/D and any middle state. We've had large polling misses meaning we should be favoring Dems (NJ governor, anyone?), Rs being underweighted in the past meaning we should favor them (IA, anyone?), and just internal polling that was way off (El-Sayed way up in the primary, anyone?). Anyone giving you a confident hot take here, in short, is full of it. Even the early voting is not uniform, and while the information content there is not always high, there is usually not zero, and if you're looking at data from GA vs. OH, you aren't getting the exact same vibes, much less some other places. In short: national politics is getting weirder, polling is getting harder, the parties are fragmenting internally, and nobody knows shit yet. Good news, though: they'll all claim they were right after the fact. What you should do is track both predictions and process to see who is really worth listening to over time.
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
My post about France went viral. Thousands of likes. Many Americans told me: "Democrats aren't socialists. America will never be France." I want to answer that seriously, step by step. Start with a simple observation. Look at what has gotten cheaper in America over the last 25 years: TVs, phones, software, clothes, toys. Now look at what has exploded: college tuition, healthcare, childcare, housing. What separates the two lists? The first lives in competitive markets. The second is exactly where government is most involved: subsidies, mandates, licensing, zoning, regulation. College. Washington lends students almost unlimited money. Universities know the money will always come, so they raise tuition and hire more administrators. The student pays the bill for twenty years. More government money, higher prices. Housing. Why can't a nurse buy a home in the city where she works? Not because of capitalism. Because of zoning laws, permits, environmental reviews, years of procedure to build a single building. The most expensive places to live in America are the places where it's hardest to build. When building is nearly illegal, prices explode. Healthcare. The patient almost never sees the price. A third party pays, regulations limit who can compete, and costs climb year after year with no one able to say no. So here is the trap. The problems you suffer from are not the failure of free markets. They are the places where the market has already been replaced by the state. And the solution you're being offered is more of the same. That's the Trojan horse. It always works the same way. A real problem. A generous-sounding promise. A program that makes things worse. Then the failure of that program becomes the argument for the next one. People who lived under communism in Poland learned to recognize the lie and the mask the lie wears. The lie never presents itself as a lie. It presents itself as compassion. In France we are at the end of that road. Debt we can never repay. Young people who can't afford a home. Our best people leaving. And every few years our cities burn. Nobody voted for this. They voted for one more generous promise, fifty years in a row. If you're a Republican, share this with the Democrat in your life. Not to win an argument. To start a conversation. If you're a Democrat, I'm not asking you to switch teams. I'm asking you to look at the pattern. Wherever the state took over, life became unaffordable. Don't fix the failures of government with more government. Stay American. Ask for less state, not more.
I’m French. I want to talk to Americans who are about to vote Democrat. Not to insult you. To warn you. I come from your future. In France we did everything your progressive politicians promise. Free healthcare, free college, generous welfare, strong unions, heavy regulation, high taxes on the rich, a state that takes care of everything. Public spending close to 57% of GDP, one of the highest on the planet. On paper, it’s the dream. Here’s what it looks like from the inside. France hasn’t passed a balanced budget since 1974. Our debt is above 3,300 billion euros. Interest on that debt is becoming one of the biggest items in the national budget. Our hospitals are collapsing despite record funding. Our schools rank lower every year. Young people with degrees can’t afford an apartment in the city they were born in. Our best engineers leave for London, Zurich and San Francisco. And the rich you wanted to tax? They left too, and took the jobs with them. The promise was protection. The result is stagnation. The worst part is that nobody in France voted for decline. Every single step sounded generous, compassionate, reasonable. One more program. One more regulation. One more tax to fund it. Each step alone makes sense. Fifty years of them, and you wake up in a country that can no longer build a nuclear plant on time or keep its streets safe. I love America because it’s the one place on earth where people still believe they can build something from nothing. I came to Silicon Valley as a self-taught kid and it changed my life. That spirit is the most precious thing your country has. Before you vote, ask yourself one question: is the program you’re voting for making America more like America, or more like France? Trust me. You don’t want to be France.
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
I’m French. I want to talk to Americans who are about to vote Democrat. Not to insult you. To warn you. I come from your future. In France we did everything your progressive politicians promise. Free healthcare, free college, generous welfare, strong unions, heavy regulation, high taxes on the rich, a state that takes care of everything. Public spending close to 57% of GDP, one of the highest on the planet. On paper, it’s the dream. Here’s what it looks like from the inside. France hasn’t passed a balanced budget since 1974. Our debt is above 3,300 billion euros. Interest on that debt is becoming one of the biggest items in the national budget. Our hospitals are collapsing despite record funding. Our schools rank lower every year. Young people with degrees can’t afford an apartment in the city they were born in. Our best engineers leave for London, Zurich and San Francisco. And the rich you wanted to tax? They left too, and took the jobs with them. The promise was protection. The result is stagnation. The worst part is that nobody in France voted for decline. Every single step sounded generous, compassionate, reasonable. One more program. One more regulation. One more tax to fund it. Each step alone makes sense. Fifty years of them, and you wake up in a country that can no longer build a nuclear plant on time or keep its streets safe. I love America because it’s the one place on earth where people still believe they can build something from nothing. I came to Silicon Valley as a self-taught kid and it changed my life. That spirit is the most precious thing your country has. Before you vote, ask yourself one question: is the program you’re voting for making America more like America, or more like France? Trust me. You don’t want to be France.
Je n'ai jamais été aussi optimiste. Pas malgré le chaos actuel, mais grâce à lui. Je vais vous expliquer pourquoi l'empire du mensonge construit par la gauche depuis cinquante ans va s'effondrer, et pourquoi ce n'est pas une opinion mais une question de physique. Tout commence avec un mouvement né sur X il y a quelques années : l'effective accelerationism, ou e/acc. Au départ, c'est une idée presque thermodynamique. L'univers a une tendance de fond : la matière s'organise pour capter et dissiper l'énergie de plus en plus efficacement. Une cellule fait ça. Une forêt fait ça. Une civilisation fait ça. Le marché, la technologie et le capital sont les formes les plus avancées de ce processus. Ce sont des machines à transformer l'énergie en intelligence, en abondance, en complexité. La thèse e/acc est simple : il ne faut pas freiner cette dynamique, il faut l'embrasser. Plus d'énergie, plus de calcul, plus d'innovation, plus de croissance. Monter sur l'échelle de Kardashev au lieu de s'excuser d'exister. En face, il y a les « décels » : ceux qui veulent ralentir, réguler, taxer, interdire, culpabiliser. Ceux qui voient le progrès comme une menace à contenir plutôt qu'une force à libérer. Mais il y a une dimension de l'accélération dont presque personne ne parle. L'accélération n'est pas seulement un moteur. C'est un filtre. Pensez à n'importe quel organisme. Un corps humain en bonne santé peut courir. Il accélère, son cœur pompe plus fort, ses muscles consomment plus d'oxygène, et tout fonctionne parce que le système est bien conçu. Maintenant, prenez un corps malade. Des artères bouchées, un cœur fragile, des organes qui ne communiquent plus entre eux. Faites-le courir. Il ne va pas plus vite vers la santé. Il va plus vite vers l'infarctus. L'accélération ne corrige pas les défauts d'un système. Elle les amplifie. Un système sain qui accélère devient plus fort. Un système dysfonctionnel qui accélère meurt plus vite. Et c'est exactement ce qui est en train d'arriver au projet que je vais appeler par son nom : le projet globalo-socialiste. Celui porté par les démocrates américains, par la technostructure de Bruxelles, par les entités supranationales qui n'ont de comptes à rendre à personne, par un réseau d'ONG financées par l'argent public pour dicter la morale aux peuples qui les financent. Regardez ce que ce projet a produit. Des États obèses qui prélèvent plus de la moitié de la richesse produite et qui délivrent des services publics de plus en plus dégradés. Des écoles qui n'apprennent plus à lire mais qui apprennent à culpabiliser. Des hôpitaux à bout de souffle malgré des budgets records. Une immigration massive sans aucune exigence d'assimilation, présentée comme une chance par ceux qui n'en subissent jamais les conséquences. Une désindustrialisation organisée au nom d'une écologie punitive qui délocalise la pollution en Chine et l'emploi avec. Des normes, des normes, et encore des normes, jusqu'à ce qu'il devienne plus simple de créer une entreprise à Austin qu'à Lyon. Une justice qui excuse le coupable et soupçonne la victime. Une censure qui avance masquée sous le nom de « lutte contre la désinformation ». Et une jeunesse à qui l'on a expliqué que son pays, son histoire et sa civilisation étaient des crimes à expier. Ce n'est pas un ensemble de bugs. C'est la conception elle-même. Maintenant, changeons d'image. Voyez ce système comme un moteur. Un bon moteur, c'est de la précision. Des pièces qui s'emboîtent, un minimum de frottements, une énergie qui se transforme en mouvement. Le marché libre, la propriété, la responsabilité individuelle, la monnaie saine : c'est ça, un moteur bien conçu. L'information circule par les prix, chaque erreur est sanctionnée, chaque bonne idée est récompensée. Le moteur socialiste, lui, est mal conçu dès le départ. Il ne tourne pas sur la création de valeur mais sur sa redistribution. Il ne récompense pas la performance, il la taxe. Il ne laisse pas les erreurs mourir, il les subventionne. Résultat : ça frotte partout. Ça chauffe. Ça grince. Chaque pièce use la pièce d'à côté. Et que font ceux qui pilotent ce moteur ? Au lieu de le reconcevoir, ils changent les pièces. En permanence. Une pièce cède, on en remet une neuve. Encore une. Encore une. Ces pièces de rechange, vous les connaissez. Elles s'appellent la dette publique et la planche à billets. La France a dépassé les 3 300 milliards d'euros de dette et n'a pas voté un budget à l'équilibre depuis le milieu des années 70. Les États-Unis ont franchi les 37 000 milliards de dollars. Les banques centrales ont maintenu des taux à zéro pendant des années, imprimé des montants que plus personne ne sait se représenter, et quand l'inflation est arrivée, elles ont fait semblant d'être surprises. Milton Friedman l'avait pourtant dit il y a cinquante ans : l'inflation est toujours et partout un phénomène monétaire. Chaque crise, on rachète du temps avec de l'argent qui n'existe pas. Chaque problème structurel, on l'arrose de liquidités pour masquer le bruit du moteur. Mais les frottements sont toujours là. Ils s'accumulent. Et la facture des pièces de rechange finit par coûter plus cher que le moteur lui-même : la charge de la dette devient l'un des premiers postes de dépense de l'État français. Pendant des décennies, ce moteur mal conçu a pu tourner à 3 000 tours par minute. Lentement. Bruyamment. Mais il tournait. Le monde allait assez doucement pour que le bricolage permanent suffise à masquer l'absurdité de la conception. Et puis l'IA est arrivée. L'intelligence artificielle, c'est l'accélération la plus brutale de l'histoire humaine. Ce qui prenait des années prend des mois. Ce qui prenait des mois prend des jours. Des entreprises de dix personnes font ce que faisaient des entreprises de mille. Le capital, les talents et les idées se déplacent à la vitesse de la lumière vers les endroits où ils sont bien traités. L'IA vient de faire passer le moteur de 3 000 à 20 000 tours par minute. Posez-vous la question qu'un ingénieur se poserait. Que se passe-t-il quand on fait monter à 20 000 tours un moteur mal conçu, rafistolé de partout, qui frotte à chaque rotation ? Il explose. Pas parce que quelqu'un l'a saboté. Parce que la physique ne négocie pas. Et c'est exactement ce que nous voyons en ce moment, sous nos yeux. L'insécurité qui gagne des villes entières qui étaient paisibles il y a vingt ans. Le conflit de Gaza importé dans nos rues et instrumentalisé par une gauche qui a troqué l'ouvrier contre le clientélisme communautaire. La misère qui revient dans un pays qui a pourtant un des taux de dépense publique les plus élevés au monde. Des classes moyennes qui travaillent et n'arrivent plus à se loger. Une France fracturée, où l'on parle désormais à voix haute de risque de guerre civile. Ce ne sont pas des accidents. Ce ne sont pas des « crises » successives sans lien entre elles. Ce sont les pièces du moteur qui commencent à voler. C'est la conséquence logique de cinquante ans de socialisme international : un système qui a détruit la responsabilité, la frontière, la monnaie, l'école et la fierté, et qui découvre qu'à haute vitesse, tout ce qui a été détruit ne peut plus être compensé par une ligne de dette supplémentaire. Et c'est là que je deviens profondément optimiste. Parce qu'une fois qu'on a compris ça, on comprend aussi que leur projet a une date de fin. Pas une date politique. Une date physique. Un système qui consomme plus qu'il ne produit, qui punit ceux qui créent et récompense ceux qui détruisent, qui finance son présent en hypothéquant l'avenir de ses enfants, ne peut pas durer indéfiniment. Il n'est pas soutenable par construction. L'IA ne fait qu'avancer l'échéance. Le mensonge a besoin de lenteur pour survivre. Il a besoin que les conséquences arrivent assez tard pour qu'on puisse accuser quelqu'un d'autre. Dans un monde à 20 000 tours, les conséquences arrivent immédiatement. Le mensonge n'a plus le temps de se cacher. Alors, que faire quand le moteur explose ? On en construit un nouveau. Et cette fois, on le conçoit correctement. Écoutez Elon Musk. Un homme qui a reconstruit l'industrie spatiale, la voiture électrique et l'infrastructure satellite en partant d'un principe simple : revenir aux premiers principes. Ne pas demander « comment on a toujours fait », mais « qu'est-ce qui est physiquement vrai ». C'est exactement ce dont nos États ont besoin : arrêter de rafistoler et repartir de la base. Écoutez Javier Milei. Un homme dont tout le monde se moquait, arrivé à la tête d'un pays ravagé par un siècle de péronisme, et qui a pris la tronçonneuse au sens propre. Ministères supprimés, dépenses coupées, inflation écrasée, excédent budgétaire retrouvé. Il a prouvé une chose que la gauche jurait impossible : on peut démonter le moteur socialiste et le peuple peut le soutenir. Écoutez Milton Friedman. Relisez-le. Tout était déjà là. La monnaie, la liberté de choisir, la responsabilité, les effets pervers de l'intervention publique. Il disait que si l'on confiait le Sahara au gouvernement fédéral, il y aurait pénurie de sable en cinq ans. On a ri. On a confié le sable. On a eu la pénurie. Revenez à une hiérarchie et au respect du beau. Une civilisation ne tient pas que sur des chiffres. Elle tient sur l'idée qu'il existe des choses supérieures à d'autres. Que l'excellence vaut mieux que la médiocrité. Que le mérite compte. Qu'une cathédrale est plus belle qu'un parking. Que transmettre est un devoir et pas une oppression. Le relativisme a été l'arme culturelle de ce projet. Le retour du beau, du vrai et de l'exigence en sera l'antidote. Et enfin, faites le Nuremberg du communisme. Le nazisme a été jugé, documenté, enseigné, et il est devenu moralement indéfendable. Le communisme, avec ses dizaines de millions de morts, ses goulags, ses famines organisées et ses peuples réduits en esclavage, n'a jamais eu ce procès. On peut encore porter un t-shirt du Che dans une université sans que personne ne cille. Tant que ce procès historique et moral n'aura pas eu lieu, l'idéologie continuera de muter et de revenir sous de nouveaux noms. Il faut nommer les crimes, les enseigner, honorer les victimes, et rendre cette idéologie aussi infréquentable que celle qu'elle prétendait combattre. Le monde qui vient sera plus rapide, plus exigeant et plus impitoyable avec les systèmes mal conçus. C'est une terrible nouvelle pour ceux qui ont vécu du mensonge. Et c'est la meilleure nouvelle de notre génération pour tous ceux qui veulent construire. Le moteur va exploser. À nous de dessiner le suivant.
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Replying to @slickricksports
@slickricksports is ready for #ThursdayNightFootball and can you guess who he’s rooting for?!? @lfs6b
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
So the Cornell accuser called it a “gang bang,” specifically stated that nothing illegal occurred, and said “our body our choice.” Ok. Case closed. Let’s move on to the next hoax please.
Replying to @TMZ
TMZ obtained a text chain between Jonathan Newell and Jane Doe. On the evening of October 21, 2024, Jonathan apologizes to Jane and says, "You're an amazing person and I genuinely hope ur not catching as much heat from this as we r. We've been shutting down any stories we've heard but again I'm so so sorry."
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
Star Dem-backer Debra Messing endorses GOP's Bruce Blakeman for NY governor: 'What we need' trib.al/V9zPnTz
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
The Flydubai hijacking was a joint Al-Qaeda and IRGC terrorist plot that failed due to heroes among us. We will be patient as investigators and the public connect the dots, but here is what they have told the public SO FAR. The attempt on September 30th should never have gotten this far. The co-pilot, Hamam al-Hammami, who spent time in Syria, as his mother is Syrian, had previously been removed from flying duties at Oman Air after concerns about extremist material. He was subsequently hired by Flydubai. He also filmed Israeli aircraft at Dubai International Airport days after October 7th and posted cockpit footage featuring images of Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri and Humam al-Balawi, the suicide bomber who killed my CIA brothers and sisters in Khost in 2009. Do not make the mistake of treating this as a single aviation security failure, as the broader threat picture has yet to be revealed. The captain and passengers did more than was ever expected of them. Their actions helped save everyone aboard. Now the intelligence and security services need to do their damn jobs, explain how they failed to prevent this in the first place, and determine whether the same warning signs are sitting in other files right now. The question is not only what we missed. It is what we are still missing, and who is next if they fail to find it.
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
I’m excited to announce that I am joining the Trump Administration as Asst. White House Press Secretary. It’s been an honor to report, travel, and cover this historic administration as Senior White House Correspondent for Real America’s Voice. My goal has always been to ask the questions that matter to real Americans and make sure their voices are heard. I’m incredibly grateful to President Trump for this opportunity and his trust. I’m looking forward to this next chapter - serving the American people and continuing to fight for the American Dream. America First.
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
Clear decision for NYers: Keep Gov Hochul, who wants to keep raising taxes to keep bailing out NYC’s biz-hating, cop-hating, home-owner hating Marxist mayor…OR vote for Blakeman, who’s wants to CUT most people’s taxes and rebuild businesses. It’s up to you, New York!
Bruce Blakeman unveils plan to effectively wipe out NY income taxes for many households. Read today's cover here: trib.al/PUt4QSl
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
My plan: No state income tax on the first $50,000 for single filers or $100,000 for married couples. New York families deserve a break. Your paycheck should go further. As Governor, I’ll fight to make that happen.
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
🚨 BREAKING: CNN is NOT being allowed to travel to Tennessee tomorrow with President Trump aboard Air Force One Instead, @RealAmVoice will be allocated seats on board to cover 47’s trip, and it’ll be broadcasted right here on 𝕏 CUE THE MELTDOWN 🤣🔥
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Live From Studio 6B retweeted
This is glorious. The fake news is in such a panic over RAV that they are now reduced to completely circular nonsense. The argument here is essentially: “It isn’t a pool because it isn’t organized the way our pool has historically been organized,” which proves exactly nothing. Describing the traditional structure of the press pool does not explain why that structure is necessary to accomplish the actual purpose of pooling, which is to make shared coverage available to everyone.
If a news outlet shoots and plays out its content online or through a channel, that is called "unilateral" coverage. A "pool" requires an organized system of member outlets, a secure distribution system, cost sharing and defined duties.
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