on a long enough time horizon everything is a shitco
New York, USA
Joined November 2013
- Tweets7K
- Following1.2K
- Followers23.8K
- Likes31.8K
Linsanity Capital retweeted
This entire Gaza stance just proves to me Trump is working closely with the Saudis. US arms sales (MBS top priority) for an OPEC market flood incoming. WTI -5%+ gap into driving season is a safe bet.
Linsanity Capital retweeted
i sold $UTI and am faced with a Cluseau-style crashout @JLinWins
Linsanity Capital retweeted
We had some great contributor ideas for last years “24 Trades for 2024” on 12/20/2023. Out of 8, six of them worked which were:
@JLinWins
Idea: Long UTI
Total Return: 129.55%
@blondesnmoney
Idea: Long IGIC
Total Return: +125.24%
@KeyPaganRush
Idea: Short SAVA
Total Return: +86.17%
@netcapgirl
Idea: Long MRVL
Total Return: +61.55%
@ShaleTier7
Idea: Long TPZ CN vs Short PBT US
Total Return: +49.36%
If you’d like to submit an idea to be considered for inclusion in this year’s be sure to DM a brief write up (no longer than a few paragraphs) by December 12th!
24 Trades for 2024: now with extra functional links
citriniresearch.com/p/24-tra…
Linsanity Capital retweeted
PM/Analyst greeting 3Q discretionary comp talks after the sleeve returns DD gross above watermark
Linsanity Capital retweeted
Arguably the biggest misstep from macro pros this cycle was the microscopic focus on core CPI largely driven by a-cyclical demographic shifts. The market thus far has focused on energy prices and said second derivative impacts on input costs, the rest has been looked through.
Linsanity Capital retweeted
Powell: You idiots - of course I saw Friday’s BLS data. We aren’t cutting in March.
Market: Bidding Tech stonks to 60x FCF
Linsanity Capital retweeted
Markets have embraced fully the “it’s so over, we’re so back” mantra this year
Either treasuries are in absolute free fall with liquidity drained out
Or frauds and insolvent shitco’s are up 50% in 3 days periods after a bailout and 77 cuts are priced in
Viva la revolution 🥳
Linsanity Capital retweeted
Lots Chinese stonk dip buyooor sentiment on here as of late.
One important tidbit:
In 2022 retail comprised of 60% of A-share trading volume vs 25% composition on the NYSE.
How do you see a material bounce with disposable income faltering amongst the Chinese middle class?
Linsanity Capital retweeted
24 Trades for 2024:
It's the best '24 year ahead out there.
Seriously, I read the rest. It's better.
Huge thanks to everyone who collaborated on this:
@WTIBull @JLinWins @theKantoarbot @netcapgirl @lord_fed @irbezek @LastBearStandng @blondesnmoney
citriniresearch.com/p/24-tra…
Linsanity Capital retweeted
Lowest quality duration levered cos are my best performers this week.
Sometimes things are straightforward, but if these four cuts priced into ‘24 materialize… most are underweight these type of names.
Alpha left on the table probably not in large cap/index weighted.
Linsanity Capital retweeted
When you hear an investor friend pitch a small cap value SOTP story without a catalyst
Linsanity Capital retweeted
2024 predictions:
-Energy pain makes generalists realize why this sector sucks
-Duration beta stonks en fuego thru 1H. Inflationista finally relent late 2Q. We then rugpull 2H when inflation reaccelerates
-CRE does not, in fact, collapse
-Consumer remains aight but not great
Linsanity Capital retweeted
Common precept is that Macro guys only really make money once every eight years. Well, why wouldn't this be one of the fattest pitches of the past decade? US inflation rolling over fast with base effects likely comping CPI negative next year. FX carry strats outperforming YTD...
Linsanity Capital retweeted
TLDR: Long $JPYUSD will be the correct trade in 2024.
teapawt.net/benjaminMlavine/status…
2023 ending up as a mirror reversal of 2022 with factor-based investing (apart from Quality) deeply underwater, especially Value and Low Vol, not to mention small vs large caps. Risk-parity also dogging it. Highly reminiscent of 1998-1999 period. @pinebrookcap @BobEUnlimited
Linsanity Capital retweeted
Which way, western man?
1.) Value commodity investor; 10x your book once a decade. Rest of the time bleed 20% every year
2.) Growth investor; lose 90% of your book once a decade. Rest of the time compound 20% per year
3.) Macro guru; never make money but sounds v smart af
Linsanity Capital retweeted
Thanks to @RaisingTheBAR47 for chatting with me the other day. I always enjoy these amusing yet insightful reads. My latest newsletter interview here:
highyieldharry.beehiiv.com/p…
