Director of Data Sciences @PennPORES. Senior Elections Analyst on the @NBCNews Decision Desk. Fishtown dad.
Fishtown, Philadelphia
Joined September 2010
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Things are going to change around here, Percy! Our sweet girl, Margot Alexandria Trussler, was born happy and healthy at 6lb last week. Kelsey is doing great and we are looking forward to some time off to hang and enjoy our new expanded family.
Marc Trussler retweeted
Equis is cooking its polls! (This is a joke.) Here are how different screens & weights impact the topline in the latest Latino data. 2024 recall does a LOT more work in a complicated national poll.
A contribution to the weighting discourse: Equis weights to 2024 vote. What happens if you don’t? @_juancmac @mjavierrod show the impact of several likely voter schemes in a recent sample of TX Hispanics— with and without recall. Without recall, the estimates go to Jupiter.
Marc Trussler retweeted
At this time of year, there's a lot of social-media chatter about voting machines flipping votes. They're not. Here's what's really happening: apnews.com/article/vote-flip…
Marc Trussler retweeted
.@NBCNews Presents “Decision ’26”: The Network’s Most Extensive Midterms Coverage Ever, with Record 13 Hours of Live Broadcast Programming and 24/7 Updates and Analysis Across Digital
Coverage begins Tuesday, Nov. 3 at 5 p.m. ET and continues until Wednesday, Nov. 4 at 6 a.m. ET.
At 6:30 p.m. ET, @SavannahGuthrie, @LlamasNBC, @kwelkernbc, @HallieJackson and @SteveKornacki will lead primetime network coverage.
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Marc Trussler retweeted
There are way too many otherwise knowledgeable people on this site asking questions like "how does polling recover".
Pollsters didn't do anything wrong! A bunch of people did fraud and got caught by pollsters!
Mark Twain said: “If you tell the truth you don’t have to remember anything”
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For a long time I’ve wanted to write an article showing the huge variation that you can get from LV models.
We do just that with our Decision Desk poll released today.
One poll, multiple outcomes: Why election surveys come with an extra layer of uncertainty nbcnews.com/politics/2026-el…
Marc Trussler retweeted
If the election were held today voters would be really surprised
A senior official with Dan Sullivan's campaign told The Sun that if the election were two weeks ago, they didn't think the incumbent Republican would have won.
But they're confident if the election were today, Sullivan would win
Claim deserves skepticism, but it does broadly track with a race that, despite some public polling, is getting tighter as some Republican voters come home, per Rs and Ds watching washingtonsun.com/campaigns/…
Marc Trussler retweeted
the consequences this driver faced for hitting two kids while running a red light? a "failure to yield to pedestrians" ticket. $150 fine and 5 points on his license, but don't worry, if he does it two more times in the next 18 months he might lose his license temporarily
Because it’s back in the news, re-upping our party registration story from last week. Democrats have rebounded in party registration in swing states, and a lot of the “decline” was due to significant Democratic dead weight on the rolls.
(1) All points in a MOE are not equally likely.
(2) Overlapping CIs is not a hypothesis test.
Do you think we could get larger margins of error in this trash?
You mean to show me 6 and 7 point leads in TX and AK while still putting both outcomes in the margin of error window?
So it could be Paxton 50-47 and Sullivan 48-45 but who cares? Let’s make up Democrat leads so large they’ll move the betting markets for these market thieving pricks.
Weirdly this is just a year after the same rhythm section backed up Keith Richards on SNL in an equally shit-hot performance: youtube.com/watch?v=TdVAKpxm…
Steve Jordan was everywhere, man.
Some voter file analysis with @janestreet. I think something that's been missed on reporting of the Democratic losses is just how much of that comes from D registrants *leaving* the rolls.
After having suffered massive voter registration losses in the wake of the last presidential election, Democrats have stemmed the bleeding in several key states heading into this year’s midterms, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis. nbcnews.com/politics/2026-el…
Marc Trussler retweeted
For fun I like to get sick to my stomach about baseball. The sport children play for fun.
Marc Trussler retweeted
my hope for today is the funniest outcome possible. they get swept and still make the playoffs and have the nerve to celebrate in the clubhouse.
Marc Trussler retweeted
“We’re in the driver’s seat”
“We’re in the driver’s seat. We’ve got to take care of our business.”
Bryce Harper addresses the pressure as the Phillies’ playoff chase heads into the final weekend. | @WapnerNewman