Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
After Putin's terrorist attack on a train station in Ukraine today, I am even more outraged that my president is siding with autocratic Russia and against democratic Ukraine. foreignaffairs.com/russia/puโฆ via @ForeignAffairs
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
I had hoped this result might end this but clearly it won't.
Chow has consistently and relentlessly called out hate crime and prejudice of all kinds - especially for the Jewish community. She has upped police presence, set-up command posts, expanded police hate crime units and - notably - taken a lot of heat for backing the (likely unconstitutional) bubble-zone laws - in a good faith effort to address community concerns.
And in response she's gotten abuse, ridicule, insults (often racist). She gets Ezra Levant bursting into meetings with synagogue leaders to scream insults. She gets a millionaire in a MAGA hat claiming she is a moral failure while making racist insults.
And she gets completely disingenuous claims that she shouldn't speak on foreign affairs coupled with claims that her jobs requires her to March with Israel - and support Trump's invasion of Iran.
She's better than I am. She still shows up - knowing that it gains her nothing.
If people want to take their political cues from political opportunists like Warren Kinsella, if they want to fund political hacks who sow division for partisan advantage, than they will face rejection.
But that is not a rejection of the Jewish community in this City. And I think those who claim it does are doing their community, and the whole City, a grave disservice.
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
she beat him by 13 points and received the largest raw vote share in the cityโs history, some would qualify that as trouncing her challenger and not just merely staving him off
Olivia Chow re-elected mayor of Toronto, staving off challenger Brad Bradford
theglobeandmail.com/canada/aโฆ
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow's team has pulled together their summary of the numbers in the election last night, which the incumbent won emphatically over Brad Bradford. #TOpoli
Here's an extract from their release:
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
When you're a progressive, racialized, senior woman, you can win by 10+ points and win the most votes in Canadian history and they'll still write a headline undercutting your political vision and the size of your victory.
A tighter-than-expected re-election leaves the mayor facing questions about passive leadership, thin plans and an unclear second-term agenda. thestar.com/news/gta/olivia-โฆ
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
Good morning from Mount Carmel. Cloudy with some sunshine.
Election results are still incomplete and moods are oscillating. Here are a few certainties, though:
* Netanyahu lost his nationalist-racist-ultra orthodox majority.
* We should hug the 7 October survivors and families, many of whom are in deep pain because the government of massacre is not more decisively ousted.
* Israelโs liberal-democratic muscle was indeed flexed to the utmost, and guess what? We canโt declare victory without our Arab fellow citizens. This is good. A discourse of Jewish-Arab political partnership is fast becoming the new normal.
* Renewed war against Iran, as Netanyahu and Trump are plotting, spells further political danger and mayhem.
* I and likeminded Israelis remain resilient, alert and very cautiously hopeful. If you have read this far, I will add that itโs my birthday and I may sign off for a while.
Keep tuned.
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
Damn! They was fast. Ukraine has launched its first satellite for its own communications network
๐ฐ Great news! Ukraine has launched its first satellite for its own communications network
Himera, together with Denmark's GomSpace, has launched the Obria Nano satellite into orbit.
With its help, Ukraine will be able to develop its own communications infrastructure, relying less on foreign satellite systems.
The first test satellite of Ukraine's future sovereign satellite communications network is already undergoing testing.
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
BREAKING: Israeli elections have ended and the exit polls are in. All three Israeli channels have Netanyahu's bloc at 50. Eisenkot's bloc is at 52 or 53. The Arab parties are at 17 or 18, the most seats they have ever won.
Likud finished first with 24 or 25. Yashar is second with 21 to 23. Bennett has 12 to 14.
Nobody has 61. Netanyahu cannot form a government without Bennett, and Eisenkot cannot form one without either Bennett or the Arab parties. Israel had the highest turnout in its history today, and the country is still split down the middle.
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
The exit polls have a number everyone is missing. Eisenkot's bloc plus Ra'am gets to 59 or 60. Not 61.
Ra'am is the Islamist Arab party led by Mansour Abbas. In 2021 it became the first Arab party ever to join an Israeli coalition, under Bennett, which is why people assume it could do the same for Eisenkot. Even if it did, the math still comes up short.
That is the whole story of the next few weeks. Not Bennett against Likud, and not Likud against Lieberman. The question is what Eisenkot has to give up to pull one more partner across the line, because a minority government that lives on Arab party votes does not hold, and if the final count confirms there is no 61, trying it anyway would cost him the legitimacy he needs to govern at all. It would be close to political suicide.
So either someone pays a very high price for a majority, or Israel votes again.
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
On this Israeli election day, Iโd recommend reading this extraordinary @haaretzcom interview with billionaire Ronald Lauder, president of the World Jewish Congress and once one of Benjamin Netanyahuโs closest confidants.
One of Lauderโs most striking conclusions: โI realized at the end of the day that Israel really didn't want peace, but they wanted dominance.โ
This is coming from someone who helped launch Netanyahuโs political career, introduced him to powerful figures in American politics and media, and secretly negotiated with Hafez al-Assad and Rafik Hariri on his behalf in the late 1990s.
In one of the interviewโs biggest revelations, Lauder says Netanyahu agreed to a comprehensive peace deal with Syria and Lebanon, including withdrawal from the Golan Heights, but ultimately refused to sign it for political reasons.
โHe chose politics over peace. He put his political future before the deal.โ
Now 82, Lauder describes his profound disillusionment with Israelโs direction. After decades of supporting Israeli and Jewish institutions, he has sold his Tel Aviv apartment, given away his Beโer Sheva property, and says he has no intention of returning to Israel.
He warns that Netanyahuโs dependence on figures like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich is damaging Israel, alienating diaspora Jews and eroding support in Washington.
The interview is also full of fascinating details about Lauderโs role in Netanyahuโs political rise. The two became close friends in the 1980s, when Netanyahu was Israelโs ambassador to the UN, speaking almost daily at times.
Lauder says he introduced Netanyahu to speech coach Lilyan Wilder to improve his public speaking and, crucially, to Republican strategist Arthur Finkelstein, who would become instrumental in Netanyahuโs electoral success.
When Netanyahu left New York to pursue a political career in Israel, Lauder threw him a farewell party attended by some of the most influential figures in American media and politics, including Rupert Murdoch and the head of the New York Times.
Lauder recalls opening doors for Netanyahu and helping him cultivate the relationships that would underpin his rise to power.
What makes this interview so revealing is that Lauder is no longtime critic of Israel. He had been a committed Zionist, a Republican power broker, and a man who spent decades financing Jewish institutions, cultivating relationships with Arab leaders, and pursuing diplomatic openings on Israelโs behalf.
A fascinating read ๐
haaretz.com/israel-news/elecโฆ
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
First of all, when calculating accuracy for polls you have to check if it falls within the margin of error.
For example: Forumโs final poll on Oct 25th (53-43) was in the +-4 MoE and the final result of 54-41.
So whatโs the margin of error and why does it matter, then? In 95% of cases if you ran the poll again, it would produce a result within 4 points each way. The MoE shrinks with increased sample size. Simply put, you can say with 95% confidence that the true result is contained in that space.
If the actual result fell outside of the MoE at 95% confidence level it would be ~2 standard deviations away from the mean.
Build Canadaโs October 16th poll (Bradford +4.7) had an MoE of +-3.1. The polling miss of 17.1 points (for the margin of victory) meant that the actual result was nearly 5.62 standard deviations away from the pollโs mean.
If this was just because of pure random sampling luck, this has a 1 in 51 million chance of occurring.
The poll did not reflect the voting public that showed up on October 26th. To attribute this miss solely to voter preferences swinging double digits in a week is an excuse for poor methodology.
When you look more broadly than one cherry-picked poll for comparison, the polling story of this election is actually quite interesting.
The pattern across all 11 of the final week poll results shows that the older the fieldwork, the bigger the miss. This points to a significant late stage shift in sentiment back towards Chow, not bad polling.
We polled the Toronto mayoral race in the field from Oct 11-16 and found Bradford +4.7. The final result had Chow +13 on the night. That means out of the 11 final-week polls, ours was the farthest off. If I had a do-over, we should definitely have also run a Wave 2 poll Oct 24-25.
I'm confident in our methodology, which is the same as many of the other pollsters on this list, and has been reviewed and validated by CRIC (the industry standards body for public opinion research).
I'm excited to continue to scale Build Canada's polling operations. We have big plans to do so. And I'm even more excited to be able to field polls at a price that democratizes access to public opinion research.
We're just getting started.
#cdnpoli #topoli
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
"Bradfordโs campaign of darkness reflects poorly on the city and on him. The fact is that Toronto is a vibrant place. The streets are filled with a rich mix of humanity, of people who want to be here and who are ready to look out for their neighbours"
theglobeandmail.com/canada/aโฆ
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
The Globe: "During the [last] three years .. the City of Toronto has become a significantly safer place, and is one Canadaโs safest cities. Murders, shootings and violent crime are all down...the lowest in 50 years. Car thefts... are down dramatically..."
theglobeandmail.com/canada/aโฆ
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
Here's the thing: Something is not ambitious if it ignores basic math & the limitations of reality. By law, Toronto can't go into deficit. Bradford is playing make-believe. His agenda is so expensive it will either require big tax hikes or breaking most of his promises to voters.
NEW: Brad Bradford is defending his plan to fund a range of ambitious projects through more debt, saying Wednesday that if he is elected, Toronto will โstill be the most financially responsible and conservative government on the continent.โ #ToPoli
cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/bโฆ
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
Replying to @tylermeredith @ssolyom
100%.
Sheโs also had to deal with a Premier who fully believes *he* is actually the Mayor.
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
I am not a huge Chow fan but can we be real for a secondโฆ sheโs been Mayor for barely 3 years, not even a full term. There are full 1 term Mayors in Canada with far less impressive records. If youโre mad about Toronto today itโs probably John Toryโs fault.
No endorsement from the Toronto Star is which telling about how it feels about Mayor Chow and her record.
Thereโs always an element of the unknown with change. But the incumbent is well known, 40 years in public office, and the Star is saying itโs time for a change
thestar.com/opinion/editoriaโฆ
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
This election is a simple choice: Do we keep moving forward together to make life more affordable?
Or do we go backwards to cuts?
I don't think that's what Toronto wants.
I have made my choice. I will keep standing up for families across our city. And I will keep bringing costs down.
This race is close. Your vote will decide it. Iโm number 9 on the ballot.
Let's keep moving forward, together.
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
Let's mention emergency response. One candidate reduced police response times from 26 minutes to 12 minutes. One candidate reduced 911 operator delay from up to 12 minutes to 3 seconds. Mayor Chow has been effective where it matters.
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
My @TorontoStar column: One reason this mayoral election hasnโt seen many big ideas? Blame Doug Ford, and his meddling in Toronto issues
There is one big idea that could change all of this, though. We should be talking about making Toronto a Charter City thestar.com/opinion/contribuโฆ
Marla Waltman ๐จ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ฑ๐ช๐บ retweeted
Bill Clinton on Mark Carney:
I'm tired of treating our allies like they're dirt.
The prime minister of Canada has been a friend of mine for a long time. We got to know each other having virtually nothing to do with politics.
He's about the most well-qualified leader in the world. He's been head of the banks of both the UK and Canada.
And we have the gall to suggest that they should become the 51st state.

































