Politics, Sports, AI (views are my own)
New York, NY
Joined October 2012
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George I’ll bet $20000 this won’t happen.
I’ve moved on some races but now I think we take NH, MI and, ME.
I’ve spent all day looking at numbers and internal and this is my updated map with the new info.
Again these maps are like assholes EVERYONE has one. lol
But it’s fun to see if your method is better than others…
As for the house I think it’s a blood bath but NY-17 Mike Lawler survives it as well as PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick…
Nar retweeted
Roger Marshall’s closing ad in the Kansas Senate race
With 3 days left to #ElectionDay, here’s part of the closing argument from @RogerMarshallMD.
#kansassenate
What about Lieberman?
Israel’s Arab parties will tell Isaac Herzog, the Israeli president, that they will support the Zionist opposition bloc in forming a new Israeli government, according to a leading lobbyist.
Jafar Farah told The Telegraph he expected both the Joint List and Ra’am to recommend that Gadi Eisenkot, the former IDF chief of staff, become prime minister, ousting Benjamin Netanyahu ⤵️
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2…
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This is incredibly gross and bigoted.
If you're black, I have the easiest Halloween costume for you. Wrap an Israeli flag around you, and just start calling everyone you see an antisemite. Voila, you're @VanJones68.
Hottest take is X should add a feature where you can bet against other users and money is automatically placed in an escrow account.
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Need a big @NateSilver538 @rabois election bet to happen, will make sweating Tuesday even more fun
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Representative view inside much of tech still. Folks are banking on mass polling error.
The GA prediction is wrong but I think there’s still a 1/4 chance GOP holds Senate, but also a 1/4 chance of a true tsunami.
I predicted the 2024 election with 97% accuracy.
Here are my final Senate and Governor predictions now that we got the final early voting data in:
🇺🇸 SENATE
🔴 Ohio
🔴 Kansas
🔴 Michigan
🔴 Alaska
🔴 Iowa
🔴 Maine
🔴 Nebraska
🔴 Texas (of course we’re not going blue)
🔴 Florida
🔴 Georgia
🔵 Minnesota
🔵 North Carolina
🔵 Virginia
🏛️ GOVERNOR
🔴 Georgia
🔴 Arizona
🔴 Ohio
🔴 Texas
🔴 Nebraska
🔴 Iowa
🔴 Florida
🔵 Wisconsin
🔵 Nevada (I really wanted to see this go red but I just don’t see it happening.
You’ll notice I didn’t include the House.
Why?
Let’s be honest. The Republicans are going to get decimated.
Get ready for two more years of gridlock! 🚀
$500 that Ossoff won’t lose.
I predicted the 2024 election with 97% accuracy.
Here are my final Senate and Governor predictions now that we got the final early voting data in:
🇺🇸 SENATE
🔴 Ohio
🔴 Kansas
🔴 Michigan
🔴 Alaska
🔴 Iowa
🔴 Maine
🔴 Nebraska
🔴 Texas (of course we’re not going blue)
🔴 Florida
🔴 Georgia
🔵 Minnesota
🔵 North Carolina
🔵 Virginia
🏛️ GOVERNOR
🔴 Georgia
🔴 Arizona
🔴 Ohio
🔴 Texas
🔴 Nebraska
🔴 Iowa
🔴 Florida
🔵 Wisconsin
🔵 Nevada (I really wanted to see this go red but I just don’t see it happening.
You’ll notice I didn’t include the House.
Why?
Let’s be honest. The Republicans are going to get decimated.
Get ready for two more years of gridlock! 🚀
Nar retweeted
Just like centrists have been completely vindicated regarding Fetterman.
John Fetterman on the public dispute between Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed
“Rep. Haley Stevens simply held Abdul El-Sayed accountable for his views on Israel and fixation with Jewish money. El-Sayed is going after a woman and banning her from campaign events for having an opinion.”
“El-Sayed's overreaction demonstrates why he struggles with groups of Michigan voters. He has the worst case of little man syndrome I’ve ever seen.”
Source: Jewish Insider
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At this point, Dems should retaliate and make fake cocaine orgy promotions appearing to be sent from the GOP campaigns
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I would like to jump the gun and say if polls actually are underestimating Dems (no idea if they are) then that makes total sense given the president of the United States is record unpopular for this century. A D+11/12 environment is easy to explain and would not surprise me.
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What is his source? The Latinx Doctor?
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This is completely true btw, and it's something we've talked about a few times this year
Dem turnout was horrific in 2022 and esp 2024 in Texas, such that a significant turnout advantage was near automatic, tho it works both ways bc bad Dem turnout impacted 2024's results
I wanna write a bit of warning here, and i posted about this a few times when EV started, but i will iterate on it again. This data is a bit misleading.
Why ? Because it compared turnout to 2024, which was not a great cycle for dems. Turnout was okay for dems in the swing states, but in places like TX it was subpar. As a result the benchmark this turnout is being compared against is not the same, it's lower for Ds than Rs, so the same turnout looks better. What do those numbers mean in that case ? Well, it means R turnout is very solid, this is great turnout for a midterm. But unlike 2024, D turnout is also very solid. But by how much better than the R one is harder to say.
Overall statewide situation is not as good for Rs. If in the metro areas their turnout is in general "very solid", in the white rurals it's not, it looks depressed. The explanation is they will recover on eday, but in general when you see a trend, it tens to get reflected on eday as well. But this is why campaigns exist and GOTV exists, the GOP has a few days to try to convince their rural voters to go vote. Overall, winner will be determined by persuasion, not turnout. In other states, i think we already have evidence there's going to be a sizeable turnout gap in favor of dems, but in TX it will be less of a case.