Paul | Bitcoin, Crypto & Equities | Macro | Charts & On-Chain | NFA | đ¨đŚ
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With Anthropic filing their S1 today it looks even more likely they are the customer behind 1/3 of $SPCX Q3 revenue.
In the S1 Anthropic says theyâll spend up to $120.5B with SpaceX into 2029. Thatâs up from about $45B when SpaceX filed to go public in May and $84.5B in the draft Reuters saw in September.
They expect all their capacity to be up and running in December and then pay SpaceX about $3.1B a month. The customer SpaceX didnât name made up about $5.0B of their Q3 revenue which is about $1.7B a month. That would make sense if Anthropic was still getting more capacity added in Q3.
Thereâs also the $1.11B a month deal SpaceX said would start December 1. They never said who it was with and I think it could be Anthropic since thatâs when Anthropic expects to get all their capacity.
We canât confirm Anthropic is the customer yet because the S1 doesnât show what they paid SpaceX in Q3. But I think the deal makes them too big to be anyone else in SpaceXâs numbers.
The new $SPCX 10-Q shows one customer SpaceX doesnât name made up 1/3 of their revenue in Q3. Thatâs about $5.0B and itâs 2/3 of their AI revenue.
In Q2 the same customer was about $1.5B so it more than tripled in one quarter.
It looks like it could be Anthropic. Reuters reported Anthropicâs contracts with SpaceX are worth up to $84.5B into 2029 which is nearly double the original deal.
We donât have that confirmed but if Anthropic files publicly soon then the S1 should show their SpaceX contracts.
$META didnât wait for the new Class C shares to start selling stock to pay for their AI buildout. They just announced $35B in stock offerings today and plan to sell up to $60B more once the Class C shares start trading next year.
Their filing last week said itâs getting harder to raise money because so many other AI companies need it. It looks like they want to get theirs before there is less left.
These Class C shares have no votes. I have posted a lot on this and the quote thread is linked below. This first sale canât be Class C yet but Meta set it up so most of it can end up as Class C later. That helps protect Zuckerbergâs voting power.
$NVDA $AMD and $AVGO might buy up to $5B of it between them. Meta buys chips from all three so some of this money could go right back to them.
My quote thread on $META xitter.cf/notanotherquant/statusâŚ
$META new non voting shares let Zuckerberg keep control while Meta can raise money and he can sell some stock.
Looking more into the filing Metaâs board members did push back on the size of the share dividend. Zuckerberg wanted 20 new shares for every share. The board offered 1 for every 9 and they ended up at 1 for 1. More new shares would mean more stock he could sell without giving up votes.
But they didnât get any limits on his control. In 2016 Facebookâs board made him agree that in most cases he would lose control if he left the company. This time he said no to that kind of rule and they approved it anyway.
Last week a Delaware court blocked a similar deal at $NET because Cloudflareâs board members likely went along with what their founders wanted. Metaâs board also went along with Zuckerberg on control but nobody has sued yet so we donât know how a court would rule.
Quality matters in the neocloud space. I think lumping them all together is a mistake. Neoclouds can still get loans but itâs getting harder and how much they pay comes from how risky they look.
Lenders care a lot about how strong customers are and how long those customers are signed up for since thatâs the money that is paying back the loan. How new the company is and how much debt it already has are obviously key as well.
Musk is arguing lenders have mostly stopped lending to companies that donât bring in a lot of revenue outside AI data centers and he uses $SPCX as the example.
They have Starlink and launch revenue and last week it cost about 2.3% a year to insure their debt against default. $CRWV makes almost all their money from AI data centers and it cost about 11% a year to insure their debt.
But it doesnât look like you need outside revenue to borrow yet. $NBIS makes almost all their money from AI cloud. They have customers like Microsoft and Meta and on Oct 17 during this selloff they got a one year $3.5B loan from Citi starting at about 6.7%.
Compare this with Volta which is a new company and got a loan at about 10.5% two days earlier. They had to pay more than first planned to get it sold.
Not Another Quant retweeted
I think Trumpâs deal with Russia is about getting Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries. Trump keeps pushing for it since Ukraine hitting those refineries is a big part of whatâs holding back Russian fuel. If Ukraine stopped Russia could fix them and export more but bigger repairs take months.
I donât think Russia is offering unlimited diesel. Their deputy prime minister said buyers can have as much as they want from what Russia will export. And so far this month Russia is exporting about the same amount as last month. Not sure this does much for diesel prices.
The deal is also a big change in US policy. The US is letting Russian diesel in even though Congress banned it. I have seen senators from both parties say this breaks that law so we have to see how this develops.
I think Trumpâs deal with Russia is about getting Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries. Trump keeps pushing for it since Ukraine hitting those refineries is a big part of whatâs holding back Russian fuel. If Ukraine stopped Russia could fix them and export more but bigger repairs take months.
I donât think Russia is offering unlimited diesel. Their deputy prime minister said buyers can have as much as they want from what Russia will export. And so far this month Russia is exporting about the same amount as last month. Not sure this does much for diesel prices.
The deal is also a big change in US policy. The US is letting Russian diesel in even though Congress banned it. I have seen senators from both parties say this breaks that law so we have to see how this develops.
Not Another Quant retweeted
$META new non voting shares let Zuckerberg keep control while Meta can raise money and he can sell some stock.
Looking more into the filing Metaâs board members did push back on the size of the share dividend. Zuckerberg wanted 20 new shares for every share. The board offered 1 for every 9 and they ended up at 1 for 1. More new shares would mean more stock he could sell without giving up votes.
But they didnât get any limits on his control. In 2016 Facebookâs board made him agree that in most cases he would lose control if he left the company. This time he said no to that kind of rule and they approved it anyway.
Last week a Delaware court blocked a similar deal at $NET because Cloudflareâs board members likely went along with what their founders wanted. Metaâs board also went along with Zuckerberg on control but nobody has sued yet so we donât know how a court would rule.
$META new non voting shares let them raise money without Zuckerberg losing control. It should be harder to challenge than when $GOOGL or Meta (Facebook) tried it.
Google tried this in 2012 and got sued. They settled in 2013 and agreed to pay shareholders if the new shares traded lower. The shares did trade lower and Google paid $522 million in 2015.
Meta tried it in 2016 when they were Facebook but got sued and dropped it right before trial in 2017.
A new Delaware law in 2025 protects deals like this if independent board members approve them âin good faithâ. Meta had independent board members approve it and Zuckerberg signed off with his own votes.
But last week a Delaware court blocked a similar deal at $NET because Cloudflareâs board members likely didnât act in good faith. It now goes to trial.
Not a lawyer and I donât play one on X!
Not Another Quant retweeted
Well that escalated quickly.
Love you all, thank you for all the support and camaraderie and all the brilliant analysis we share between us all.
Powerful moves.
Special thanks to a few who have kept me going on here, my main man @Brownmoose, @HunterAllen4, @BeardoTrader, @notanotherquant, @Brikka_trading, @Twills08 @canadachris404 and many many more.
Just waiting for the @Mr_Derivatives boost now lol and we can save even more people from unnecessary pain.
Cos that's what we're here to do đ
Stay safe traders, gonna get even trickier out there in the next few weeks.
$META new non voting shares let Zuckerberg keep control while Meta can raise money and he can sell some stock.
Looking more into the filing Metaâs board members did push back on the size of the share dividend. Zuckerberg wanted 20 new shares for every share. The board offered 1 for every 9 and they ended up at 1 for 1. More new shares would mean more stock he could sell without giving up votes.
But they didnât get any limits on his control. In 2016 Facebookâs board made him agree that in most cases he would lose control if he left the company. This time he said no to that kind of rule and they approved it anyway.
Last week a Delaware court blocked a similar deal at $NET because Cloudflareâs board members likely went along with what their founders wanted. Metaâs board also went along with Zuckerberg on control but nobody has sued yet so we donât know how a court would rule.
$META new non voting shares let them raise money without Zuckerberg losing control. It should be harder to challenge than when $GOOGL or Meta (Facebook) tried it.
Google tried this in 2012 and got sued. They settled in 2013 and agreed to pay shareholders if the new shares traded lower. The shares did trade lower and Google paid $522 million in 2015.
Meta tried it in 2016 when they were Facebook but got sued and dropped it right before trial in 2017.
A new Delaware law in 2025 protects deals like this if independent board members approve them âin good faithâ. Meta had independent board members approve it and Zuckerberg signed off with his own votes.
But last week a Delaware court blocked a similar deal at $NET because Cloudflareâs board members likely didnât act in good faith. It now goes to trial.
Not a lawyer and I donât play one on X!
Not Another Quant retweeted
Continuing to monitor the 2022/2023 bitcoin:native fractal situation!
Retest of support is normal so let's see what happens.
Hope everyone has a great weekend!
Continuing to monitor the 2022/2023 bitcoin:native fractal situation!
Retest of support is normal so let's see what happens.
Hope everyone has a great weekend!
Not Another Quant retweeted
My boy deserves 10x the attention for his hard work.
Sad on x that real alpha goes unfollowed and unnoticed
Same with @Tape_Vector @Twills08 @Brikka_trading @EdgeReport91
With $BE they are bringing in more revenue than ever but growing is now eating into their cash and right now the market seems to want cash more than growth.
Why? Well a lot of Bloomâs customers are AI companies that are borrowing more to build and in the higher rate environment that money is getting harder to get. If it keeps getting harder Bloom could end up waiting longer to get paid.
AI spending being ahead of revenue is well known. But right now that worry is hitting AI stocks in general and Bloom is caught up in it.
Not Another Quant retweeted
$META new non voting shares let them raise money without Zuckerberg losing control. It should be harder to challenge than when $GOOGL or Meta (Facebook) tried it.
Google tried this in 2012 and got sued. They settled in 2013 and agreed to pay shareholders if the new shares traded lower. The shares did trade lower and Google paid $522 million in 2015.
Meta tried it in 2016 when they were Facebook but got sued and dropped it right before trial in 2017.
A new Delaware law in 2025 protects deals like this if independent board members approve them âin good faithâ. Meta had independent board members approve it and Zuckerberg signed off with his own votes.
But last week a Delaware court blocked a similar deal at $NET because Cloudflareâs board members likely didnât act in good faith. It now goes to trial.
Not a lawyer and I donât play one on X!
$META is doing almost the same thing $GOOGL did in 2014. Google gave shareholders a non voting Class C share for each share they owned so Page and Brin could keep control while Google kept issuing stock.
The Class C shares traded lower than the voting ones and Google ended up paying $522 million to make up for it.
The big difference is Meta wants to use these shares to help raise the hundreds of billions they say they need for AI. Google mostly used theirs to pay employees and buy companies.
And it is also for Zuckerberg. If California passes its billionaire tax next month he can sell some of his new shares to pay it without giving up votes.
$META new non voting shares let them raise money without Zuckerberg losing control. It should be harder to challenge than when $GOOGL or Meta (Facebook) tried it.
Google tried this in 2012 and got sued. They settled in 2013 and agreed to pay shareholders if the new shares traded lower. The shares did trade lower and Google paid $522 million in 2015.
Meta tried it in 2016 when they were Facebook but got sued and dropped it right before trial in 2017.
A new Delaware law in 2025 protects deals like this if independent board members approve them âin good faithâ. Meta had independent board members approve it and Zuckerberg signed off with his own votes.
But last week a Delaware court blocked a similar deal at $NET because Cloudflareâs board members likely didnât act in good faith. It now goes to trial.
Not a lawyer and I donât play one on X!
$META is doing almost the same thing $GOOGL did in 2014. Google gave shareholders a non voting Class C share for each share they owned so Page and Brin could keep control while Google kept issuing stock.
The Class C shares traded lower than the voting ones and Google ended up paying $522 million to make up for it.
The big difference is Meta wants to use these shares to help raise the hundreds of billions they say they need for AI. Google mostly used theirs to pay employees and buy companies.
And it is also for Zuckerberg. If California passes its billionaire tax next month he can sell some of his new shares to pay it without giving up votes.
Not Another Quant retweeted
With $BE they are bringing in more revenue than ever but growing is now eating into their cash and right now the market seems to want cash more than growth.
Why? Well a lot of Bloomâs customers are AI companies that are borrowing more to build and in the higher rate environment that money is getting harder to get. If it keeps getting harder Bloom could end up waiting longer to get paid.
AI spending being ahead of revenue is well known. But right now that worry is hitting AI stocks in general and Bloom is caught up in it.
Not Another Quant retweeted
Gold is back in a tricky spot near the summer lows.
Oil is back up with these attacks on Saudi Arabia. This is putting continued pressure on inflation and it is keeping rate hike odds in December high.
This AI stock selloff has people moving into bonds instead of gold. US10Y had its biggest one day drop in over two years and that should have helped gold but it kept going down.
This could be gold investors selling gold for cash to cover any positions that got hit in this AI tech selloff.
bitcoin:native continues to hold up well compared to gold. Been a tough week with AI growth concerns and the heavy tech sell off.
Gold is on track for its worst week in over four months and is back near the summer lows.
The ETF flows for both are interesting. 4 days this week Bitcoin ETFs took in about $440M and $GLD lost about $1.8B.
With $BE they are bringing in more revenue than ever but growing is now eating into their cash and right now the market seems to want cash more than growth.
Why? Well a lot of Bloomâs customers are AI companies that are borrowing more to build and in the higher rate environment that money is getting harder to get. If it keeps getting harder Bloom could end up waiting longer to get paid.
AI spending being ahead of revenue is well known. But right now that worry is hitting AI stocks in general and Bloom is caught up in it.
$BE post from yesterday
So many are wondering whatâs going on with $BE after such a great quarter. Bloom hasnât been paid for a lot of what they sold yet and permits are now slowing down some of their projects.
Bloom made $250M of profit in Q3 but their operating cash flow was negative $27M. In the 10-Q you can see a lot of that comes from $464M of Q3 revenue they havenât been able to bill yet. They only get to bill once a project reaches certain stages or the customer signs off on it.
Q1 and Q2 were both positive so operating cash flow is still $273M for the year. Bloomâs CFO said they donât expect Q3âs negative cash flow to keep going.
But that depends on projects staying on schedule. Bloom has paid suppliers $337M in advance this year and if projects get pushed back they could end up with more inventory than they need and less cash.
They say permits are now delaying some of their projects. They usually canât sell the systems to the investors paying for a project until it has its permits so a delay can mean Bloom gets paid later.
Their biggest project is the $ORCL data center in New Mexico and it still doesnât have its air permit. The permit hearing isnât until December 7 and an October 26 hearing will look at whether to throw out the application.
Not Another Quant retweeted
So many are wondering whatâs going on with $BE after such a great quarter. Bloom hasnât been paid for a lot of what they sold yet and permits are now slowing down some of their projects.
Bloom made $250M of profit in Q3 but their operating cash flow was negative $27M. In the 10-Q you can see a lot of that comes from $464M of Q3 revenue they havenât been able to bill yet. They only get to bill once a project reaches certain stages or the customer signs off on it.
Q1 and Q2 were both positive so operating cash flow is still $273M for the year. Bloomâs CFO said they donât expect Q3âs negative cash flow to keep going.
But that depends on projects staying on schedule. Bloom has paid suppliers $337M in advance this year and if projects get pushed back they could end up with more inventory than they need and less cash.
They say permits are now delaying some of their projects. They usually canât sell the systems to the investors paying for a project until it has its permits so a delay can mean Bloom gets paid later.
Their biggest project is the $ORCL data center in New Mexico and it still doesnât have its air permit. The permit hearing isnât until December 7 and an October 26 hearing will look at whether to throw out the application.