Senior FX Analyst at ITC Markets. Formerly of New York, London, Singapore, Melbourne. LinkedIn: https://teapawt.net/t.co/fXTeRCSTPo
Sydney
Joined March 2011
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It took a full week but I finally found someone at X who could recognise that this is still my account after 15 years and not the account of a crypto scammer. Thanks to everyone who flagged that I had been hacked, including @TMFScottP and Eamonn at @investingLive_
No more photos of someone else's Porsche Taycan, just back to the usual CFTC charts and banter about the BOJ...
CFTC - Hedge funds on CME remain bullish Aussie dollar but real money accounts ratcheted up net shorts even further, reaching fresh records. As at the Oct 20 close, these accounts sat net short -128.7k contracts for a face value of -AUD12.9bn. This is the largest such position since these categories were introduced in 2006. Hard to align with news/data.
Pricing for another RBA rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day jumps to 44% chance after RBA Dep Gov Hauser sounds very unhappy about Australia's inflation trajectory. Modest 10-15 pip rise in A$ but the Aussie is strongest of the major currencies on the day
The Economist actually tested this!
Is The Economist always wrong?
We used artificial intelligence to test the accuracy of our forecasts
economist.com/interactive/fi…
😮
When hecklers from the liberal group Code Pink interrupted the Treasury secretary at a Washington restaurant in December and criticized the Trump administration's economic sanctions policies, Bessent called them ignorant and erupted at the owner of the restaurant for not removing them. According to the owner and also a nearby diner, Bessent spit in his own food before leaving.
NEW: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said in an interview that he believes in the idea of "fired if fired upon" in how to respond to people.
Inside Treasury, his management of the agency has featured him, at times, ripping into agency staff and battling with officials leading to multiple departures.
Some of his defenders, including former Trump White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, admit Bessent has a temper, is intense, passionate and demanding but that's all by design to keep Treasury staff in check with the president's agenda. "He brings a Wall Street mentality to Washington," another said.
Our deep dive on what's been happening in an agency that's seen high turnover with alumni of Bessent's hedge fund coming in to help him.
Exclusive w/ @jdawsey1, @PhilipWegmann and @GZuckerman
wsj.com/politics/policy/bess…
Mixed responses from economists to the RBA statement and presser but pre-CPI at least, OIS rates are considerably lower vs Mon close. Nov hike <40% chance
Australia unrounded s.a. unemployment rate, we almost got to 4.7% as participation rebounded:
Aug 4.6463%
Jul 4.4845
Jun 4.4500
May 4.3924
Apr 4.5001
AUD/NZD sits 10 cents above its daily average since January 2000 of 1.1443. Anyone looking at an investment property in New Zealand? 🤔
September hike up to 94% priced, two hikes fully priced by year-end
Great to talk to @CNBCi today about the Fed, the dollar, US Treasury, JPY intervention, INR...
cnbc.com/video/2026/08/31/an…
CFTC data shows a savage reduction in JPY net shorts on CME in week to Sep 8. Hedge funds halved JPY net shorts, to -49.1k contracts from -102.2k while real money accounts are now virtually square JPY at -0.6k vs previous -24.5k. Face value of combined JPY net position is -$4.0bn vs -$10.1bn. HFs had boosted JPY net shorts in week to Sep 1, only for USDJPY to fall 6 big figures to around 154.
*BESSENT: MARKETS ARE RUN BY HUMANS, AND THEY MAKE MISTAKES
*BESSENT: MARKETS ARE NOT EFFICIENT
Scotty knows best?
CFTC data shows hedge funds ramped up JPY net shorts to -102.2k contracts as at 1 Sep from -77k week prior. Real money accounts extended JPY net shorts to -24.5k from -20.1k, for a combined face value of -$10.1bn vs -$7.6bn. USDJPY was 160.18 at the time, just ahead of strong yen gains on Wed-Thu, so fresh yen shorts were placed under immediate pressure.
Sean Callow retweeted
Great to talk to @CNBCi today about the Fed, the dollar, US Treasury, JPY intervention, INR...
cnbc.com/video/2026/08/31/an…
Great to talk to @CNBCi today about the Fed, the dollar, US Treasury, JPY intervention, INR...
cnbc.com/video/2026/08/31/an…
Australia's July CPI kicked off a sharp change in RBA expectations. OIS rates rose as much as 16bps by H1 27 – see below. The RBA’s 29 Sep meeting had been vaguely discussed as ‘live’ but only a low risk of a hike was priced in. This is now up to just above 50% with several forecasters making a Sep hike their base case.
*NAB NOW EXPECTS RBA TO HIKE CASH RATE TO 4.6% IN SEPTEMBER
Pricing for Sep hike now above 40%, Nov near 100%
