The excitement around Kimi K3 seems to support my "intelligence saturation" hypothesis. TLDR - most people only need so much intelligence (capability, context, benchmarks, tool use, reasoning, etc) from models. Beyond that extra capability is wasted on them. At that point, intelligence becomes a commodity. Sort of like how all CPUs are 64 bit today, and no one really thinks about it. At least on the consumer side. In tech infrastructure, we break this down into two dimensions: lateral scaling and vertical scaling. Lateral scaling is adding more parallel processing or nodes that are cheap. Vertical scaling is making one thing bigger and more impressive. At this point, we're nearing the point where open source models satisfy like 90% or more of all demand. Then it's just a matter of "who's GPU is it running on?" and that becomes the key market niche. By the end of the year, and certainly within 12 calendar months, you'll have a library of open weight models to pick from that run at thousands of tokens per second, which will do the vast majority of the work you want.

@kevinroose recently tweeted that he'd overheard at an AI lab "what are you doing for the last 300 days of work?" In this video, I unpack how credible that quotation is, and what it could really mean. TLDR - probably not literally the "last 300 days of work" but within the next 300 days I would not be surprised if agentic AI is ready for prime time in the Fortune 500 space AND that robotic foundation models also reach saturation.

This is fine