too early to draw strong conclusions here. We are also at a level where price seems to have killed gas demand amounting to almost a full HDD for the remainder of nov-apr period, in the EU aggregate. You need a good SnD balance!
This is quite dangerous to trade on, on it's own, as the relationship to downstream weather is extremely complicated, especially for Europe. If you have followed him for a while, you would know that he has often been too bullish during extremely bearish periods. It's still a bit
Det er faktisk lidt interessant i øjeblikket for optioner i EU energi handler over en bred kam med den største disconnect mellem realized og implied vol
Du får også svært ved at finde et prisområde uden massiv vol, næsten uanset produktions miks med mindre at der er massiv fleks. Jeg kan heller ikke komme i tanke om et eneste industrielt selskab der har givet volatiliteten skylden for at de lukker. Det er altid prisniveauet.
Jeg vil påstå, at det ikke er volatiliteten, der slår virksomhederne ihjel, men primært den absurde marginale omkostning, som kommer fra gas+eua. I Europa er der i øjeblikket gigantiske spring fra den ene marginal til den anden, hvilket skaber vol når der ikke er fleks.
This is what happens when a tourist is trying to do your job.. Simpson's paradox unfolding.
The cheap green lie
You are told that solar and wind are cheap
But you need near-100% backup when no sun or wind, paying for two systems
Data for 2025 shows that
cramming in more solar and wind makes electricity overall more and more costly
Sources:
Electricity prices, households and industry, 2025
iea.org/data-and-statistics/…
Solar and wind generation, electricity use and consumption weights
iea.org/data-and-statistics/…
Solar and wind for countries without IEA 2025 data
ember-energy.org/data
Electricity trade partners, plus industry prices for Norway, Albania, Iceland and Kosovo
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/en…
US industry price
eia.gov/electricity/annual
Australia, IEA 2021 prices updated with official price indices
abs.gov.au/statistics/econom…
South Africa industry price
eskom.co.za/wp-content/uploa…
Taiwan industry tariff
taipower.com.tw
Egypt industry tariff
egyptera.org/en/TarrifAug202…
Tunisia tariffs (archived copy, the STEG site is unreachable)
web.archive.org/web/20250614…
Azerbaijan industry tariff
regulator.gov.az/en/istehlak…
2025 tariff changes applied to IEA 2024 prices
Pakistan: nepra.org.pk
Thailand: erc.or.th
Ghana: purc.com.gh
Paraguay: ande.gov.py
Kazakhstan: stat.gov.kz/en/industries/ec…
GlobalPetrolPrices 2025 averages for 18 countries, read from archived 2025 pages
globalpetrolprices.com/elect…
web.archive.org
Sri Lanka 2025 tariff changes
pucsl.gov.lk/end-user-tariff…
Indonesia solar and wind estimated from official 2025 capacity
esdm.go.id/id/media-center/a…
Statista 2025 averages for China, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, Singapore, Peru, Argentina and South Africa (data from GlobalPetrolPrices)
statista.com/statistics/1369… (business prices worldwide)
statista.com/statistics/1461… (household prices worldwide)
statista.com/statistics/1173… (Latin America business)
statista.com/statistics/1123… (Latin America households)
statista.com/statistics/1373… (China business)
statista.com/statistics/1372… (Mexico business)
statista.com/statistics/1372… (Mexico households)
statista.com/statistics/1617… (South Africa households)
The new gas year just started, not peak storages. Injections usually lasts a few more weeks untill we get consistent HDDs. It is all about weather going forward.
Der er vi ikke uenige. Man er bare højtlønnede, men det bliver man ikke rig af og det er en svær rute at tage, hvis det er målet. Apropos.. jeg må hellere sætte mig tilbage til skærmen, så jeg kan lægge timer nok til den yacht jeg så på IG forleden.
We have been below 2021 for 20-25 days on the absolute, but you are right on the visual distortion. It almost looks like they are missing 2021. It might be a perimeter thing but I just use the AGSI.
Capacity hasn't changed much for quite a few years and they are doing a 5-year historical band so it's not much of an issue here. You would need to go back to the 10s to avoid splitting hairs. Personally, I also prefer the absolute numbers, but here I think it is a matter of taste.