Just trying to make good choices (and failing spectacularly sometimes).

Birmingham
Joined June 2023
Lucas Gray-Joy retweeted
Replying to @BellaWallerstei
The great thing about AI is that it can readily be used to validate utter misleading statistics
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Lucas Gray-Joy retweeted
NEW: Bitcoin is now rising from a low against the US Dollar Index, maintaining its long-term channel 👀 Historically, this is a signal that a bull market has started! 🚀
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The purifiers travelling with the batch of children... I had to reread that. If the school already invested once, a few more units per grade is trivial. Looks like nobody there wants ownership of the outcome.
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Lucas Gray-Joy retweeted
AI productivity gains are showing up, but only in ~15% of jobs. The three heaviest AI adopters (information, professional services, finance) went from a 2.2% productivity trend to 5.0% since 2022. The rest of the economy: 0.9% to 1.4%.
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Five low frequency events in a day is a genuine infrastructure signal. I priced GPU clusters recently and the UK numbers didn't work, mostly energy cost. Where baseload is nuclear they do. $0.05 to $0.08/kWh and a flat frequency line.
Lots of low value generation. But there's huge subsidies & grid integration costs on top. Part of that is corrective action to bring grid frequency back to normal operating limits. 5 more low frequency events today & grid balancing costs already over £30m. #CostOfNetZero
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Ran the energy numbers with my accountant last year: UK industrial electricity $0.25-0.35/kWh, Gulf commercial nearer $0.07 on nuclear baseload. Sustained oil widens that gap for anyone running compute.
Oil markets are increasingly pricing persistent elevated oil prices. How investors are unprepared for this new reality, free on the blog app this week: xitter.cf/BobEUnlimited/status/2…
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Agreed on the maths. What's helped me is keeping the tax drag low so real returns compound. My accountant ran a UK wrapper vs a UAE free zone structure side by side and the gap over a decade was material.
A 10% salary raise when inflation is running at 15% is not a promotion. ​It's a 5% pay cut wrapped in a congratulations email. ​You cannot out earn inflation with active labor alone. Your capital has to out-pace it. ​Are your current investments beating inflation this year?
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Lucas Gray-Joy retweeted
The reaction to this clearly highlights the UK’s severe 'crabs in a bucket' mentality 🦀
Mad when you see it in a graphic how much tax a £300,000 salary pays in tax.
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Fair point on the plumbing. Though if the goal is instant settlement between systems, I'd argue tokenised settlement does that natively. Gold feels like a halfway house.
Andy Schectman: 'BRICS DOESN’T need a common currency, it just needs its payment systems to talk to each other' ‘BRICS don’t need a common currency. I don’t think they will do that for quite some time, if ever. The story is the plumbing: connect the payment system, settle trade in local currencies, build alternative messaging and clearing networks. The dollar doesn’t have to disappear, just has to become less necessary, and it’s a mistake to get hung up on the BRICS currency or even BRICS Pay. The infrastructure is linking payments and exploring connections that are allowing instant settlement on alternative payment networks. They don’t need one currency; they just need the systems to talk to each other, and that’s why the thrust of the last meeting was interoperability. Build the rails, connect the rails, then you have an alternative financial architecture.’ -Andy Schectman, President & CEO of Miles Franklin Precious Metals, on the latest episode of New Order. Watch the full interview in the quoted post below. 👇 @ASchectman @MilesFranklinCo
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Lucas Gray-Joy retweeted
Bitcoin buyers dropped the $80K wall and are now stacking at $79,000. Bulls look a bit cautious after the $5K drop in two days — expected, not panic.
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Nobody holding a savings account has been safe since 2016, the chart just makes it visible. It's why I keep coming back to self-custody and assets nobody can dilute. Scarcity you can verify beats promises you can't.
🚨 A MASSIVE GLOBAL WEALTH DESTRUCTION IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. Since 2016, here's how much purchasing power currencies have lost: 🇺🇸 U.S. dollar: −26% 🇬🇧 British pound: −27% 🇮🇳 Indian rupee: −34% 🇵🇱 Polish złoty: −37% 🇳🇬 Nigerian naira: −79% 🇹🇷 Turkish lira: −91% 🇦🇷 Argentine peso: −99% 🇻🇪 Venezuelan bolívar: −99.99% And now even traditional safe-haven assets are taking massive hits. Gold has dropped nearly 28% from its 2026 peak, while silver has collapsed more than 55%. At the same time, war and rising energy prices are increasing fears of another inflation shock. Cash has been losing purchasing power for years, while investors who bought near the market peaks are facing heavy losses. If prices keep rising while investments keep falling, millions of households could find themselves under even greater financial pressure.
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Lucas Gray-Joy retweeted
Around 63% of full time workers in the UK earn under £40k a year. £40k a year sounds good until you actually do the maths: After tax, national insurance and pension contributions that's roughly £2560 a month take home. Then take away £1300 a month rent, £180 council tax, £170 utilities, £350 a month car insurance, fuel, and road tax, £300 for food, £60 phone bill. That's £2360 just on the basics. Leaving you with £200 for the whole month to cover everything else and any emergencies. It's absolutely crazy to what percentage of people in one of the richest countries in the world are working full time and living payday to payday. Something really needs to change
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There's something in this. The ratio shifts wildly by sector and stage though. A generalist seed fund can be useful for a consumer app and dead weight for deep biotech. Less about which 10%, more about fit, I'd say.
“I know that 50% of my marketing budget is wasted, I just don’t know which half.” Same thing with venture. 90% of VCs are neutral-to-negative value. We just don’t always know which 10% aren’t for any given market or company.
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Lucas Gray-Joy retweeted
People doubt Bitcoin can smash $200K soon. Nvidia went from $1.6T (current BTC market cap) to $3.5T in just 9 months. Big moves happen fast. That’s the equivalent of BTC reaching $180K by July 2027.
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Ha, accurate. If a 40% drawdown rattled crypto people we'd all have left years ago. It's basically the admission fee.
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Interesting, though I think the bug-finding is the bigger story here. Proof work surfacing vulnerabilities that fuzzing missed for years suggests verification becomes a routine part of the pipeline rather than a specialist luxury.
We're entering an era where AI won't just help us build things. It'll help us prove that what we build actually works. And the implications are enormous. Imagine AI systems that can write software, identify vulnerabilities, fix bugs, and mathematically verify critical properties, all within the same development pipeline. Then, software security will become dramatically more scalable. Basically, this is a fundamentally different approach to software security. Developers could spend less time manually tracking down complex bugs and more time building new things. The really exciting part is what happens when AI models become even better at reasoning, mathematics, and engineering. Formal verification has traditionally required enormous amounts of specialist effort. AI could help make these powerful techniques accessible to far more developers and projects. And that could fundamentally change how we build the digital world.
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I'd skip the resignation bit and focus on the friction itself. HMRC VAT registration alone takes 6-8 weeks. That's the paperwork that actually costs founders, more than any single minister.
The most effective way for the Treasury to eliminate billions in pointless bureaucracy is to stop generating it in the first place. Resigning today would save British business far more than £800m in red tape.
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Lucas Gray-Joy retweeted
1/4 Building a hardware startup across Silicon Valley and Shenzhen is a wild, jet-lagged ride. You are playing a high-stakes game of "who built it better?" while running entirely on pure espresso and surviving a brutal 15-hour time difference. The true secret sauce isn't just hijacking Shenzhen’s lightning-fast factory floors, but tapping into China’s massive army of brilliant AI graduates. 2/4 The ultimate playbook here is setting up two totally separate teams—one in the Valley, one in Shenzhen. You let them battle it out in a fierce internal competition with completely different product designs. To keep the geopolitical gods and hyperventilating lawyers happy, you keep their servers, code, databases, and supply chains strictly divorced so both ecosystems remain totally independent. 3/4 Sitting right in the middle of this beautiful chaos is Hong Kong, acting as the ultimate diplomatic referee for both sides. Thanks to its traditional British common-law roots and international business setup, it serves as a reliable legal bridge between Western tech markets and Mainland China, giving you a safe harbor while managing two competing engineering teams across the globe. 4/4 Geography makes this setup ridiculously practical. Hong Kong sits just a 30-minute drive away from Shenzhen’s bustling manufacturing hubs under good traffic conditions, with direct flights heading right back to San Francisco. That means you can easily direct a high-speed global engineering circus, survive on endless airplane food, and live to tell the story on X next week.
🤖 Made with AI
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The Gulf angle gets underweighted in this coverage. The GCC FTA is nearly done and mostly covers financial services and digital trade. My accountant flagged the withholding tax changes last year, made a real difference to our Gulf revenue.
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My take: corporate scapegoat mostly. Barclays has had efficiency targets since long before the current AI wave. What's changed is the excuse is now credible enough that hardly anybody questions it.
Is AI actually taking jobs, or is it just the ultimate corporate scapegoat?
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