Researching intelligence, conscientiousness, moral foundations & human attainment. Lots of individual differences & genetics

Edinburgh
Joined September 2011
I think this is the first report of the heritability of Utilitarianism. Utilitarianism is surprisingly heritable! Second, it reflects two underlying biological systems: 1) A flat moral circle, treating self, family and strangers as substitutable. 2) Treating people as means, versus as ends in their own right.
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If banning the SAT got your attention, the government says "Hold my beer: we did it for 44 years" :-[ 1980, Carter killed PACE - the national, score-ordered merit exam for federal jobs. It had a hard pass-bar of 70. They said it was a 5-year fix, with a new test coming. But they built-in a hand grenade: any new test needed plaintiffs' lawyers' approval. For 44 years (!!!) no new test, and no challenge. Hiring flipped from objective merit to internal promotion, vague notions such as "Outstanding Scholar", being in top 10% of *your* classroom, or self assessment. youtube.com/watch?v=PihxtxJF…
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At the same time Carter passed The Civil Service Reform Act of 1978, campaigning on it and hiring the Congressional muscle to draft and get it through Congress. Ostensibly to make bureaucrats *more* accountable by lowering the legal standard for a dismissal. But while it technically did this, it ADDED an appeal system, making removal even harder.
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Timothy Bates retweeted
I told my recruiter to send me all the resumes. No filter at all. He said it would be a lot of resumes. It was 50. I ended up hiring a very intelligent person who would have been filtered out for experience, and he was a star
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Timothy Bates retweeted
Political world won’t listen and can’t hear but this is true and crucial
I recently spent some time with former colleagues from academia. All of them brilliant, peak human capital. Almost all of them fundamentally unable to plug into the economy, inoculated against productivity by a youth spent experimenting in laboratories instead of building wealth for society. Dealing with real people in the real world. 90% of them have left academia in the last 10-15 years, and 90% of those are functionally unemployed. Grad school does a lousy job of training scientists to be professors (since most of them don't get the good postdoc or tenure track position) and an even worse job of preparing people for real life. We complain that our societal infrastructure is collapsing, our state capacity is low, our incumbent industries are faltering. Where are the next generation of leaders that can push us forward? A huge fraction of them were conveyor-belted into academia by schooling systems that have no mechanism to channel ambition and 99+%ile competence, and our universities are mostly hedge funds with glorified psych wards/academic departments on the side, running an insane pyramid scheme that exists only to prove, over and over again, the Shirky Principle: Institutions will try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution. We literally poured trillions of dollars into state-funded research and effectively neutered our elite civilian technical leadership development programs. I recently asked a few academic friends if they were finding AI useful in accelerating their programs of research. You know, to solve the Big Problem their entire field exists to solve? Some were. But most were complaining about how it created pedagogical issues, explaining how their department decided to ban the use of AI, or how it took 18 months to approve an enterprise account, or how they tried Gemini 2 on a puzzle a year ago and it wasn't very helpful, or repeating nonsense about datacenters and water consumption, or supposed IP theft by model companies, as though that has any bearing on their ability to, eg, accelerate a cure for cancer. Elon sometimes calls AI a supersonic tsunami - a huge wave you don't see coming. I see it coming. But even the people who you'd think have been waiting for this their entire careers are steadfastly looking in the other direction.
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Definitely add the normal distribution, and its mean and standard deviation to your “scientific spectacles”! James Flynn called these the "Shorthand abstractions" (SHAs) that let people classify the world, apply logic to abstractions, and handle the hypothetical more readily They are knowledge that you reliably have, and characterise high g minds, which learn optimal abstractions, vocabulary, and skills for meeting their goals. Others include: * Market / supply and demand * Natural selection * Percentage * Placebo * Control group * Random sample * Falsification
We should be teaching children, from an early age, how to understand statistical distributions, probabilities, correlations, and Bayesian reasoning. These are essential tools for understanding the most important questions facing society. abhisaha.substack.com/p/my-o…
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The replication crisis, instantia-TED
One of the things that hasn’t been talked about with Elizabeth Holmes: She was created in the era of the Ted Talk Entrepreneur. Between 2011-2015 (after the release of the Social Network), there was an entire apparatus built around “Child Prodigies”: college accelerators, young entrepreneur organizations, etc. I watched countless founders of hard tech companies present fraudulent products at conferences. They had fake studies with fudged numbers. Most of the adults in the room excused it as “faking it ‘til you make it.” But Holmes was the one who rode the wave better than anyone else. When the Ted Talk Era came to an end and people finally came to their senses, she was still running the same playbook—and in the most scrutinized field there is: medical technology. When people ask how she got so far, it’s largely explained by the period she did it in. And she got caught when the world suddenly woke up.
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Great to see an incisive report on making science work better. Even greater to see the goodwill with which the author notes that, unlike most reports which go nowhere, almost 100% of his recommendations are in place right now thanks to Michael Kratsios, White House “Science: A New Golden Age”. Vannevar Bush smiles down on our embrace of the Endless Frontier.
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"I will leave you with the comments of a subject matter expert who knows more than me about the details. This is besides the point of my long thread however." @RolfZwaan brings the receipts to our parlous state. substack.com/inbox/post/2201… Tempted to say "What did you think BlueSky meant?"
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"Demonstrative knowledge must proceed from premises that are true, primary, immediate, better known than and prior to and explanatory of the conclusion." Aristotle (~350 BC) Posterior Analytics
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Any physicians looking to change a high schooler's life?
My daughter is a junior in high school. She wants to shadow a physician for 20-25 hours (pediatrician, ortho, general practice, etc.). We have looked into programs for high schoolers in the Bay Area and they are all basically fake and give you the runaround. If anybody can help put me in touch with a doctor who would be willing to have a shadow, please LMK or DM me.
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Timothy Bates retweeted
Exciting talk from @PaternaBio. If they can mature sperm in the lab, men with severe infertility could have biological kids. The same tech could let us genetically screen sperm before conception, making embryo screening far more powerful.
Very excited to be attending this talk from @PaternaBio founder @apastusz today!
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Very important paper on how Zero-sum culture sustains itself in part via effort-suppression memes - there's no point reading it. It's probably wrong. Just give up. From the super smart @JoHenrich lab! henrich.fas.harvard.edu/publ…
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In a staggering irony, the lead author's surname is "Bergeron" – if only his parents had named him Harrison, this would be 🌸 perfect :-)
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If you have yet to read the book or see the movie(s), this Vonnegut short story is a masterpiece to treasure: ia801400.us.archive.org/30/i…
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Timothy Bates retweeted
A senior McKinsey partner was stripped of his leadership role after questioning the “glass cliff”--a concept supported by scant empirical evidence. I investigated the LinkedIn spat that led to his downfall and discovered two authors who turned the controversy into a publicity campaign for their new book. My investigation for @Quillette. Unpaywalled: quillette.com/2026/10/15/ana…
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Biology has hit its tipping point: Today, Bone loss. Aging bone marrow fat cells secrete a protein causing immune-system-driven inflammation resulting in NAD⁺ depletion in marrow cells, preventing stem cells maturation which prevents skeletal aging. Block the cascade and the stem cells happily mature and form new bone like they want to. Longer healthier active lives incoming! Amazing! advanced.onlinelibrary.wiley…
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Approximately correct proportions of makers, nihilists, leaders, stooges, herd and herd enforcers
Cavemen Issues Dire Warning That The Wheel Is Going To Eliminate Countless Jobs
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Timothy Bates retweeted
The Albanese government's Digital Duty of Care laws would give regulators sweeping powers over online content, threatening free speech in Australia & setting a dangerous precedent for internet regulation worldwide. @TheIPA 's Andrew Bushnell for @Quillette featuring @shellenberger down under quillette.com/2026/10/15/aus…
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This is maximally important: For most people, the answer to “why didn’t you do it” is “it mightn’t have worked” NIH/NSF should give people an “over thinking” test and divert 100% of resources to the low scorers :-)
Jensen Huang has a message for the UK
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The same people will also tell you “it’s obvious” (after all, their overthinking proved it could work) and follow up with “did you get help?” Such a non-starter mindset.
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