ttywisp retweeted
It’s completely over for Brazil. The country will now experience Brazilification and turn into a terrible third world country like Brazil.
BREAKING: Lula overtakes Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential election odds, now favored to hold on to power.
70% chance.
🔗 polymarket.com/r/Brazil26
ttywisp retweeted
The Founding Fathers tied voting rights to property ownership.
Their (correct) reasoning was that only property owners have skin in the long game.
Brazilian stocks plunged nearly 25% after an election, the market has made it very clear that it thinks.
Yet non-owners barely feel the pain even if everyone pays eventually for the cost of socialism.
The solution, however, isn’t fewer voters, but more capital owners.
A healthier democracy requires widespread capital ownership, not just income redistribution.
Universal stock grants held in trust until age 25–30, with earlier access for education, would give everyone a stake in the country’s future.
There’s an obvious irony in using redistribution to defend capitalism.
The goal isn’t to socialize ownership but rather to decentralize it.
A society dependent on the state is different than a democracy of individual owners with a stake in its future.
ttywisp retweeted
Well, BCA Research was right to be short $EWZ, call for a Lula win, and stay bearish on Brazilian equities. It could easily have gone either way, but Brazil is Brazil...
ttywisp retweeted
Vejam isto: a projeção do resultado final via modelo do @ro_mahl quando só 8% estavam apurados (às 19h37) vs. o resultado final. Comparem as linhas pontilhadas (projeção) vs. o real. Incrível! 👏
O site @Estadao que acompanha ao vivo minhas projeções já está no ar. Derrubamos o paywall!
Assim que TSE começar a enviar dados, as projeções começam:
projecao.live/2026
A live no YT do jornal também vai mostrar, e vou participar às 16h30, aqui:
youtube.com/live/slpcnk3Y_nw…
ttywisp retweeted
BREAKING: Brazil's Supreme Court extends voting nationwide by 2 hours, citing severe weather & public transportation delays.
ttywisp retweeted
It's been over a year since XDefiant was shut down!
I speak for everyone when I say we need Ubisoft to relaunch this game with proper netcode and full-fledged marketing. Also, do not make it free to play - price it at $50.
ttywisp retweeted
Lex Fridman interviews a PHP security researcher
Lex: My guest today discovered a critical vulnerability in PHP. What is a vulnerability.
Researcher: A weakness that allows an attacker to compromise a system.
Lex: But aren't we all vulnerable.
Researcher: Yes, but
Lex: Is love a vulnerability.
Researcher: We're talking about remote code execution.
Lex: Could an attacker remotely execute love.
Researcher: No.
Lex: Stalin executed millions.
Researcher: What does that have to do with
Lex: Do you think Stalin was happy.
Researcher: I have absolutely no idea.
Lex: Fascinating. We're 3 hours in. Let's talk about consciousness.
ttywisp retweeted
Interesting idea. Had tokens to burn so I got Opus to put it to the test
Of course it can. Take all 100,000+ games on steam, scrape their descriptions and metadata, semantically plot them in vector space using embeddings, mathematically choose a location in vector space far away from neighbors, convert that back to a description and metadata, boom, brand new ideas ranked by how unlike any other ideas they are.
ttywisp retweeted
Perplexity’s Decider V1.2 is the best decision model on the benchmark and gets within 0.3 points of a perfect score at $0.10 per 1,000 claims. Mercury Decide is second at 99.1%, then Decider V1.1 27B at 98.8% and Liquid AI’s d1 at 98.7%.
The five language models scored between 99.2% and 100%, at $1.37 to $91.83 per 1,000 claims.
ttywisp retweeted
A French woman says that the rioters and looters broke into her building and threatened her with rape while she was holding her child in her arms.
“That’s collateral damage” responds the feminist activist Bettina Zourli who holds a Master’s in gender studies and focuses her work on gender norms, motherhood, reproductive rights, and voluntary childlessness (“childfree”)
She describes herself as “feminist, childfree and Antifa”
Zourli also says that all the stores getting looted also constitute a case of collateral damage and that the revolution, which she supports, must be violent.
She has lectured in gender studies, including at the University of Lille and Université Rennes.
ttywisp retweeted
>friend works on FX vol desk
>desk head is a boomer
>discovers Astra
>starts spending 8 hours a day talking to it
>develops terminal AI psychosis
>convinced he's discovered a generational arb in some absurdly exotic part of the FX vol curve
>apparently the entire market has been mispricing this for 2+ years
>friend points out that approximately 4 people on earth would make a market in this thing
>liquidity disappears the second you put real size on
>existing risk systems can't even capture half the exotic Greeks
>would need entirely new infra just to monitor the position
>boss doesn't care
>"AI has considered all of this"
>friend actually runs the backtest
>10 years of data
>t-stat ≈ 0.78
>not even remotely statistically significant
>presents results to boss
>boss goes absolutely ballistic
>starts screaming that friend doesn't understand the trade
>threatens to fire him if he can't produce a proper analysis
>friend realizes what needs to be don
>opens Astra
>"make this strategy look statistically compelling"
>AI tries 40 lookback windows, excludes crisis periods, optimizes parameters on full sample, ignores transaction costs
>Sharpe now 3.7
>beautiful charts
>23-page investment memo explaining once-in-a-generation structural inefficiency
>boss reads it
>"EXACTLY. THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING."
>tells friend he's finally learning how to think
>"now you get it"
>friend has an epiphany
>stops doing actual research
>starts asking Astra to generate exotic vol trades every morning
>forwards AI slop directly to PM
>increasingly elaborate narratives about structural dislocations and hidden convexity
>PM absolutely loves it
>thinks friend is a generational quant talent
>starts putting positions on in size
>entire investment process is now LLM generating trades
>desk currently down quarter yard
>boss still convinced thesis is right
>Astra says drawdown is a statistically rare but entirely expected manifestation of nonlinear payoff dynamics
>boss wants to double down
The Japanese Yen is broken.
Intervention to support the Yen has become a near-monthly occurrence, with the US now even stepping in to help stabilize the currency.
In the analysis below, we break down every major Yen intervention of 2026 so far.
Japan is a preview of what will happen to the US if we do not control deficit spending and inflation immediately.
No healthy market sees regular "intervention."
ttywisp retweeted
I once sold a truck to a guy who called and agreed to pay full price as long as I brought it to the airport within the hour. It was incredibly sus, but my truck had been for sale for months, and I had grown desperate. So I went. It only got weirder.
The moment I arrive he hops in the drivers seat for a test drive, and a run to the bank to get the money to buy it. He’s a freakishly large porcine fellow, adorned head to toe in dirty work clothes. He looked like Hagrid if he were an alcoholic with a the world’s most unionized construction job.
We get to chatting on the drive. Work, life, conspiratorial ramblings, Donald Trump, Pakis. The usual, if you know this type of guy.
I come to learn he needed to buy my truck to get home. He had bought a one way plane ticket to come buy a different one, but had been ghosted by the seller when he landed. He was stranded at an airport on the other side of the country with no other plan.
So I thought, “well maybe I know the guy who ghosted him. Let me see if I can help.” I asked to see his phone to read his FB Marketplace message with the seller.
He had been talking to some guy with Broken English and a vaguely middle eastern sounding name for several days now. The guy was selling an incredibly desirable truck for 30% below market. A virtually impossible deal. The vehicular equivalent of a horny singles in your area add on a porn site.
He turned to me and said “y’know, his listing says the truck is about an hour from here, maybe I should go look for him.”
I said “bro I’m looking at his profile, he has this same truck listed in every city in North America. The plate in the photos isn’t even from our state. This truck is spammed hundreds of times across marketplace.”
To which he replied, “yeah I thought that was weird. I think it’s a glitch.”
“No it’s not a glitch… you didn’t send him money did you?” I asked, fearing the answer.
“Yeah I sent him a money, otherwise he was gonna sell it to another guy.”
I winced. “how much?”
“Five thousand bucks.”
“……okay.”
“Well let’s look him up, we have his name.” He replies confidently.
“Look him up where?” I ask.
“Facebook”
“I’m looking at his Facebook. It’s not real.”
Just then we arrive at the bank, he parks my 2500HD in the handicap spot at a 45 degree angle. I say maybe we should pick a different spot, he tells me he isn’t picky.
We set up the wire transfer, he makes a disparaging remark about brown people to the teller. She frowns, she is brown. The money luckily still gets sent. And he takes off in the truck.
Hours later he calls me from the middle of nowhere. He had decided to fuck with the aftermarket tuner while driving and bricked it. He was stranded.
I don’t think all you xitter users realize just how difficult the modern world already is for an 85IQ person to navigate.
With 53% of youtube shorts views now coming from AI content, these people are about to be thrust into a completely incomprehensible dream realm forever.
Bricklayer, 49, travels 1,200 miles for dream girl - only to discover she's AI-generated trib.al/3CcGOfk
ttywisp retweeted
Heartbreaking. Infuriating.
Limoges Town Hall was inaugurated in 1883 and listed as a Historic Monument in 1975.
Survived two World Wars. Couldn't survive modern France.
the decorative works by Henri-Paul Motte, Jean-Joseph Weerts, and Urbain Bourgeois are now apparently lost forever.
#Limoges #Mobilisationdu17
ttywisp retweeted
Story time!
By the time I was in 5th grade, I had grown my hair to be very long, all the way to my hips. It was my mom that made me grow my hair that long. Up until that time, I never really cared about my hair or my looks so I never gave it much thought. None of my friends ever commented about it in any way.
Then I got to middle school. We all hit puberty. Suddenly, my friends were telling me that my hair was too long and that I would look better with shorter hair. I distinctly remember that one of the girls who would tell me this had long hair herself, mine just happened to be longer.
One day in 7th grade, as I was walking out of the school cafeteria after lunch, a girl tapped me on my shoulder and asked “is that your hair?” as she pointed towards the floor. I was confused and didn’t know what she meant until I looked down and saw a lock of hair of about 3-4 inches just lying there. I asked her, “Whose hair is that?” and she said, “Yours.” I looked at my hair that was in a braid, and sure enough, a chunk was cut and missing.
I was shocked until I heard a laugh behind me. It was one of my “friends”, she was laughing out loud with a pair of scissors in her hand. She thought it was hilarious. Of course, I was very hurt. The ends of my hair were uneven for months (I didn’t want to cut it so I just waited until it grew back).
Anyways, girls commenting about how much better I’d look with shorter hair continued throughout my entire adolescence. Female intrasexual competition is 100% real, it starts out very young, and it is vicious. A lot of times women don’t even realize that they’re doing it. The jealousy and desire to bring a woman down in order to bring themselves up comes naturally for many.
Any woman that isn’t being dishonest and that grew up with women will confirm that. You don’t really need a study to know this, but in this case this study is based on reality.
