Veteran/ Poet / Not a scientist
Hell
Joined January 2024
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DC retweeted
New ECMWF data shows the *strongest subtropical jet stream* in its forecast history blowing across the Pacific and U.S. this winter into next spring, with record-strength winds predicted from California to Florida.
There's even a connection to Europe.
El Niño fuels more thunderstorms near the equator, which release heat high into the atmosphere.
That extra warmth strengthens the Hadley circulation and steepens the temperature gradient between the tropics and the mid-latitudes, which strengthens the subtropical jet.
And that's why such a stormy winter is anticipated across the western, southern and eastern United States.
DC retweeted
The latest ECMWF update has interestingly shifted its forecast El Niño peak (+4.1°C) one month later to January.
This likely owes to relentless westerly wind forcing that continues to shift warm water eastward across the Pacific.
El Niño's impacts will extend well into 2027.
DC retweeted
No importa si la metodología del cálculo de las anomalías de las temperaturas del mar sean hechas por los Australianos, los Europeos o los Americanos.
Al final del día lo que importa es la temperatura del mar.
En el centro del Pacífico esa temperatura (Región Niño 3.4) con la data de la #NOAA (oficial) es la mayor observada jamás. Por eso la @WMO y @NOAA estiman que este será el mayor evento #ElNiño observado.
Para los peruanos esto supone un sesgo a menores lluvias en nuestra sierra sur principalmente.
En el Pacífico Oriental (Región Niño 1+2), estamos para la época, igualmente más cálidos que nunca. Aun cuando por la estacionalidad no se ha alcanzado la mayor temperatura en esa región. Sin embargo, es muy probable - según los modelos, que tan bien pronosticaron este #ElNiño - que también termine siendo el más cálido desde que hay registros .
Para #Ecuador y #Perú esto supone lluvias costeras muy severas.
En noviembre, en apenas 3 días de lluvias, #Guayaquil y #Tumbes ya exhiben números elocuentes. Ambas ciudades están a pocos días de completar, desde el 1 de setiembre, lo que debe llover en 1 año.
En particular en #Guayaquil ya llovió el 20% de lo observado entre 1982-83 durante el Gran evento de aquellos años; mientras en #Tumbes, en estos 3 días de noviembre, ya precipitó la mitad de todo lo que llovió en octubre. Notable!
DC retweeted
Sea-surface temperatures in the central & eastern tropical Pacific continue to rise as El Niño approaches its forecast peak in December. El Niño is nearly certain to persist through Feb 2027 and could be one of the strongest since at least 1950. bit.ly/4hFr1XD
DC retweeted
You have got to be flipping, kidding me. Latest pentad subsurface temperature anomalies go even higher. Between about 100 to 150 meters below the surface of the ocean in the equatorial eastern Pacific anomalies are now 12 to 13° Celsius above the climatelogical average for this time of the year. Evidently, this El Nino is certainly not done intensifying and will do so through at least mid-December.
This is totally absurd. I have never seen anything like this at all, and I’ve been on earth for 30.9 years.
Also By the way, sea surface temperature anomalies right off the coast of Peru are now up to 9+ degrees Celsius above average for the time of year of early November. This is the Christ man, instead of the Christ child.
DC retweeted
You can’t claim El Niño has peaked without at least a month of data to back it up.
Until I see a full month where temps in the 3.4 region are steady or falling I’m not claiming peak.
You can speculate all you want , but until data is more conclusive you just don’t know.
DC retweeted
BREAKING: The U.S. is reportedly preparing for an imminent attack on Iran as a massive airlift of advanced air defense systems rushes into southern Israel from Fort Bliss and Ramstein Air Base, per flight-tracking data.
Multiple USAF C-17 cargo aircraft, including RCH748, departed military hubs in Texas, staged through Ramstein Air Base in Germany, and touched down at Nevatim and Ovda airbases in the Negev before immediately returning to Europe.
The same airlift pattern was observed in the days before the previous strike on Iran. Washington is rapidly replenishing THAAD and Patriot anti-missile batteries in southern Israel, positioning layered defenses ahead of an expected wave of Iranian ballistic missile retaliation.
DC retweeted
We are officially in uncharted territory.
The Polar Vortex is currently the weakest it’s ever been for the date and is headed for the crucial 0 line over the next day or so. If it gets to a value of 0 or lower, it will officially be the earliest Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event on record.
Regardless of the technical details, the current forecasts show the Polar Vortex remaining record breakingly weak for an extended period of time… in fact, it is not exactly clear when or how much the Polar Vortex will recover… this is a critical detail when it comes to pinpointing the impacts from this.
What I can say is that the longer this goes on and remains weak, the higher the odds for a snowy winter. Remember, this disruption is about to begin in the stratosphere but we won’t see the effects make it to our part of the world for 1-4 weeks. This means we will likely see a dramatic change in the weather pattern as we move from November into December.
I’ll have more details on this and many other factors in my Winter Forecast that will be coming out soon!
#winteriscoming
DC retweeted
The U.S. attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island within the last few hours according to U.S. officials, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, the latest in a series of limited strikes the U.S. has carried out in recent weeks without announcing them. Explosions were reported on the Island beginning around 4 p.m. ET today. A U.S. official said the administration is “consistently addressing threats to American forces in the region.”
Some officials described the strikes as defensive, meant to stop Iran from having the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. One said the campaign has been kept quiet so as not to signal any intention of resuming major combat operations. Qeshm sits at the mouth of the strait and has a large underground missile site, a naval base and a major desalination plant, according to the Journal.
Source: wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-…
DC retweeted
Delta Force operator and author George Hand before and after completing the grueling SERE-C (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape) training course.
SERE-C is the crucible that forges the unbreakable will of Tier 1 operators, preparing them for the moment isolation becomes reality.
Designed for personnel whose missions carry the highest risk of capture and exploitation, this advanced training pushes elite operators through intensive instruction on the Code of Conduct, austere survival, sophisticated evasion under pursuit, and resistance to interrogation in captivity.
