Bedlam Capital Pres

Andrew Garfield says he "never had any interaction" with Sam Altman, despite the OpenAI CEO claiming the two waved to one another while the actor was filming "Artificial": “No, I saw that interview and I replayed it a few times to try and discern what he was actually saying, because I was very confused by that. I never had any interaction with him,” said Garfield. “I’ve never seen him in real life. We were shooting outside of his house. It was an eerie day, for sure. We were told that he wasn’t home and his security people were there. I think I saw one security guard. But, no, I never saw Sam, so he maybe mistook someone else for me. I have no idea, but I’ve never waved at Sam. I’ve never seen him. I was curious about that.” variety.com/2026/film/news/a…

If you go to bed on election night and don't know who won a midterm congressional race, that's normal. And if you wake up the next morning and find that a candidate who was behind hours earlier has since pulled ahead, that's normal, too. (via @PolitiFact) to.pbs.org/4zqnWBa

Most people still aren’t paying attention to what’s coming with $SPCX. This is one of the most important alphas. SpaceX CFO: “we’re on track to put up 100 gigawatts per year by the end of the decade” YES, 100 GW per year from 2030 which is only 3-4 years from now Watch the full interview: youtube.com/live/PNa1bjvPYX8…

A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started. Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now. Outflows from ETFs are signal and will continue. We will test the 57k low again in the next 12 months. Why? Because there are far too many dynamic places to put your money that are creating MUCH more value. Why put your resources into a dead network that offers nothing beyond a store of value? What's the point of place the BTC be if Bitcoin's Ponzi-scheme nature has gone away!?! The viral nature of bitcoin was it's power... if you didn't own you were MOCKED! Now? Completely reasonable, heck, SMARTER, to ignore bitcoin and place other bets! No one is trying to convince people to buy Bitcoin anymore... the memes and NFTs are gone. No one is saying $ BTC can change the world, because it won't — and BECAUSE AI HAS! Just sell and shift from Bitcoin to Super Intelligence because one provides little to no value, and the other provides unlimited upside for humanity. This should be obvious to everyone right now. Bitcoin will never break its all-time high again.

Verizon's CEO said today that SpaceX will need at least 4-6 years and $300B-$500B to fully build out its @Starlink Mobile U.S. carrier network: "Their service just can't compete with a terrestrial network. In suburban and urban areas, where 98% of our revenues are, we're somewhere between 100x–1,000x more efficient than they are. We know exactly what they're going to do. We know who they're talking to on towers. There's no magic wand. There's no secret sauce. There's no shortcut. They're going to look at 65,000–80,000 macro sites. They're going to need backhaul, RAN, and a tremendous amount of spectrum. It's going to take a minimum of four to six years to fully build that out. It's going to cost hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars, I assume somewhere between $300 billion and $500 billion. Then they need to build retail, customer service, back office systems, et cetera. All of that gets them basically the same network and same capabilities and same cost structure as what we have today. Then sometime over the next four to six years, they have the possibility of becoming the sixth, not the fourth, the sixth competitor in the market. You can be sure over these next three to five years or six years, we are not going to be standing still. Four to five years from now, we will be two to three generations better than where we are today. We will have high-speed broadband gig-plus coverage across the country with our millimeter wave. We are ahead of most people and already experimenting with what 6G applications will look like." (via Verizon's Q3 earnings call earlier this morning)

If Elon is correct about orbital compute eventually dwarfing terrestrial compute, it means that $BTC mining will also be done in orbit. And that has a secondary benefit: Terrestrial BTC miners have a short lifespan because as the ASICs become outdated, the cost to power them exceeds the revenue they generate. Orbital BTC ASICs don't have that problem because the marginal cost of installed solar is $0.

America will establish a permanent presence on the moon. 🚀🌕

Palmer Luckey’s Erebor surges to more than $7bn in deposits since launch ft.trib.al/nM9CSbn

Is the bottom in?

CATHIE WOOD THINKS A TESLA $TSLA AND SPACEX MERGER IS GOING TO HAPPEN She sees the combination as part of Elon Musk’s much bigger long-term vision: - Musk’s ultimate goal remains Mars, with businesses like global broadband connectivity acting as steps along the way - SpaceX has already built a large and highly profitable connectivity business - She says the AI leader will ultimately be the company with the most computing capacity at the lowest cost

Anthropic and OpenAI have no durable moat today. Models are being commoditized quickly. Their revenue growth is impressive, no question. But from an investment perspective, the bigger question is what happens when model performance converges, open weights get good enough for most enterprise workloads, and companies start running those models on leased or owned infrastructure. If that happens at scale, pricing power and margins could look very different from what investors are underwriting today. We’re already seeing it:

SpaceX employee #13 @_Eric_Romo: "The idea that launch prices are going to fall significantly in the next 5 years is nonsense." "There are an awful lot of business models that are predicated on 'when Starship allows me to launch for $200 a kilogram…'" "I think they’re all broken, and all those companies are going to fail." "We’ve seen this play out already with Falcon 9 and the pricing around it, where the costs of Falcon 9 allowed SpaceX to deliver the Starlink constellation at a cost per CapEx that made them profitable." "But they set the price in the market at something that just barely made it an okay investment to think about OneWeb or Kuiper or anything like that." "They’re going to do the same thing on Starship, because why wouldn’t they?" "Their internal costs on Starship are going to be whatever they need to be to deploy Starlink and orbital data centers, but they’re going to set the price so that anybody trying to do comms, anybody trying to do orbital data centers—the price is going to be too high." "If you’re a third party relying on them for a lower price of access to space, I think you’re hosed." @elonmusk Recorded at @NYSE x @payloadspace Space Summit

IMPORTANT POST Our industry became too focused on protecting downside risk and inadequately focused on maximizing Total Returns to the upside. In my view, the entire purpose of our structured finance business model must be to maximize Total Returns for common equity shareholders. Our industry needs more amplification. Even at Strive, where we have the highest Amplification Ratio among Digital Credit issuers, when I look at the risk embedded in our capital structure relative to our amplification, I believe we have room to take it up another notch or two. Building a rocket ship is extraordinarily difficult and requires underwriting and taking real risk. The mission requires not blowing up, but you need an engine powerful enough to reach the moon. Based on Amplification Ratio alone, I view the risk of true issuer failure from over-amplification as very low across our industry today. Amplification Ratio obviously cannot capture every risk, including debt terms, covenants, maturity walls, liquidity constraints, and other structural risks. But controlling for those risks should give issuers significant confidence to take amplification materially higher. That is exactly what we have done at Strive, and I hope others increasingly copy it. I’ve written extensively about why Amplification Ratio will be the single most important driver of outright and relative Total Returns in a Bitcoin bull market. However, I believe incentives naturally push toward under-amplification, modest Bitcoin outperformance, and the safest possible path. My goal with this post is to light a fire and push our industry to think bigger, focus more aggressively on growth and Total Returns, and push the frontier of what our business models can achieve. We have a shared mission across the industry to grow Digital Credit from a nascent asset class into a massive global capital market. That requires trusted issuers, deep liquidity, disciplined execution, and investor confidence. That is where we all should work together, but make no mistake about what will crown the fastest horse in a Bitcoin bull market: the engine. Our mandate at Strive is to build the thing we actually want to own and recruit and retain exceptionally talented people who desire that risk and return opportunity and understand the business model that needs to be built. That mindset drove our execution in building a high Amplification Ratio, helped create strong liquidity, and is also why we are not satisfied with where we are. With Bitcoin under $100,000, our desire is to take Amplification Ratio higher from here. If the Bitcoin bull thesis is right, amplification will be the most important thing. If the Bitcoin thesis is wrong, a few hundred basis points of cost of capital won’t be the difference between success and failure. The model itself will have failed. I love capitalism. I love competition. I want more competition for the fastest horse. The next 10–15 years will be the Digital Gold Rush for Bitcoin. Let’s act like it.

I think people still dramatically underestimate what SpaceX has become. SpaceX now owns xAI, Cursor, and Grok, while also controlling the infrastructure stack around it: - Frontier AI models - Massive compute infrastructure - Starlink’s global communications network - Starship, the lowest-cost path to putting enormous mass in orbit - A planned orbital AI compute network powered by abundant solar energy SpaceX has even said it expects to begin deploying orbital AI compute satellites as early as next year…. Very few AI companies control their own compute. None control a global satellite network and the rockets needed to build an entirely new layer of compute infrastructure in space. Calling SpaceX a “rocket company” at this point misses what it has become. It is the most vertically integrated AI company. Nothing else like it.