Bit Whitman retweeted
🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨 10/24 footage confirms massive expansion is underway at $IREN's Mackenzie site in BC.
Will @danroberts0101 discuss this on the 11/5 earnings call?
More details to come!
Bit Whitman retweeted
Replying to @MelvinInvests
The sum of Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, Muse, Grok and open-weight revenue are what matter. Not any single one of those.
The better everyone ex Anthropic and OpenAI perform, the better for AI infra imho.
Noteworthy to me that open-weight models have not really ceded any share in the face of this Anthropic acceleration; i.e. the entire market is strong.
Bit Whitman retweeted
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Bit Whitman retweeted
The notion that GPU debt and data center financing is *closed* is laughable.
As of now, the world is separated between those who say they know, and those who actually know.
If @jvisserlabs is right, intel is more valuable than equity, so let me tell you this:
selective credit markets means the due diligence goes beyond your traditional ways of finding out the winners from the losers.
I will gladly go on the record here and say that based on my latest, the debt markets are not closed for $IREN.
Best of luck to the others.
Bit Whitman retweeted
Swap lines activated:
*NVIDIA, AMD, BROADCOM INDICATE INTEREST TO BUY UP TO $5B OF META STOCK
Meta to Raise $35B in common, preferred stock; will launch separate ~$60B ATM no earlier than Q1
NVDA doesn't need neoclouds to survive. It needs them to keep pricing power. Without a strong independent layer, hyperscalers and their own chips squeeze the margin. That's the real case for consolidation, and for owning the power.
$IREN
Bit Whitman retweeted
We estimate there will be another 800-1,000 datacenters built in the US over the next few years..this will be a Game of Thrones battle in the tech world to secure compute power. SpaceX is aggressively building out its hyperscaler infrastructure vs neoclouds and cloud players 🏆🥊
Bit Whitman retweeted
I've always defended X as the only platform to be on for financial discourse.
But it's getting harder to when the owner constantly amplifies narratives of collapse… of companies whose interests conflict with his own at $SPCX or $TSLA.
Would people be comfortable if $NVDA Jensen Huang owned $META?
And then the timelines were dominated by his amplified narratives of $AVGO failing?
I can't see how that would be healthy for grassroots discussion.
Bit Whitman retweeted
Putting Together What @elonmusk is Saying/Doing
AI Demand
1. Just yesterday, Elon said "Agentic demand is growing faster than I’ve ever seen anything grow" (1).
2. His actions match "I've been personally spending a lot of time in Memphis, often 4 days a week" (2). $SPCX's biggest goal in terms of revenue next year will be bringing 10GW of compute online.
Financing Availability
1. Now Elon is saying "debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers".
Conclusion
Elon basically sees AI as the biggest opportunity in the coming years and is doing whatever he can to bring compute online. Now he is saying no one else besides him and hyperscalers will be financed to do it.
So I ask you: Is this how America works? The biggest business opportunity of our time only available to the richest man and the richest companies? Is this Elon's patriotic vision for America?
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Bit Whitman retweeted
There is nothing to worry about.
Nothing important is run on PHP or old software—except the water & electrical grid, a few government services like our missile defense systems and a handful of electrified fences at the zoo (for the lions, tigers and cobras).
Bit Whitman retweeted
Silicon Data CEO Carmen Li says the GPU forward curve has flipped to contango, so the market expects compute prices to keep rising over the next 36 months
“So, the yellow line was last year, right? The horizontal line is the duration, and the dollar amount is the Y axis. So, last year was complete downward sloping curve for the yellow line, right? Meaning the longer term contract you signed, the cheaper, you know, was per GPU per hour."
"And this year, starting early this year, the whole curve shift up and became contango. If you see the red line, right?"
"So, translate to people not getting enough discount for longer term contract. Implies that people assume the price going to rise down the line."
"And now you see the price, the whole curve keeps shifting up, got flattened, right? So, meaning people are now either get penalized or get, you know, awarded by signing long term contract."
"This is reserved contract we observe. And if you look at implied forward rates, this is the implied forward rates, right? Because we don’t have a future trading. So, this is calculated based on our term structure. And we use similar methodology as Treasury futures curve."
"So, you can see a market consensus view is the price could go up in the future, next 36 months.”
Bit Whitman retweeted
The market is worried AI demand is slowing. Token prices and usage don't show it 👇. 🚨🚨🚨
All of it runs on GPUs $CRWV, $NBIS and $IREN rent out. 💸💰🫰
$META's top model went from $2 to $8 per million tokens in six weeks.
$GOOGL went from 480 trillion tokens a month to 3.2 quadrillion in a year.
With the acceleration of open-weights the standard IG counterparty is now changing to a mix of customers that all carry their own risks. Would explain why NVDA CDS is also up this week.
$IREN is being mindful of this customer mix. @danroberts0101.
Bit Whitman retweeted
Citadel's CEO Ken Griffin on why 'hedge fund deleveraging' is the excuse that stops you learning:
"So everyone's favorite go-to answer when they're losing money is hedge funds are de-leveraging."
"In fact, in the last 10 years, I've seen the entire industry de-leveraged to zero at least 10,000 times. Just imagine if these hedge funds ever levered back up."
"And the reason that people love that answer is it actually washes your hands of accountability."
"Let's take a step back. What prices are changing and why? What don't we understand? Because the minute I start to use an excuse, I actually stop learning."
"So I always want hedge fund deleveraging to be answer number 10 on the list of answers. And I want one through nine to be, okay, what don't we understand? What does somebody else get?"




























