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Jay Mashamoun

@ComradeJihad

Political Analyst on Sudan.Hon.ResearchFellow@ExeterIAIS. African&Middle Eastern https://teapawt.net/t.co/Bb3lKjSAjB:[email protected] Bluesky:https://teapawt.net/t.co/8Hp8HXDMDB

 Exeter, England
linkedin.com/in/jihad-mashamoun-phd-55a54647/
Joined October 2013
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Photo by Jay Mashamoun (@ComradeJihad)Photo by Jay Mashamoun (@ComradeJihad)Photo by Jay Mashamoun (@ComradeJihad)Photo by Jay Mashamoun (@ComradeJihad)
My latest analysis on #Somalia published by Geopolitical Intelligence Services.
Geopolitical Intelligence Services (@GIS_Reports) profile pictureGeopolitical Intelligence Services
@GIS_ReportsApr 3
Recognition can change more than borders. It can shift power overnight. In his latest report, GIS expert Jihad Mashamoun @ComradeJihad shows how Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has strengthened President Mohamud’s hand at home. What looks like a foreign policy move is now reshaping Somalia’s internal politics. Is this strategy about unity or control? 👉 Read the full report: gisreportsonline.com/r/somal…
Image from Geopolitical Intelligence Services (@GIS_Reports)
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Replying to @ComradeJihad @SusanStigant @susandpage @MT_Afrika @CrisisGroup @SWP_MEA @Sheriffb @JMJalel_H
@GiorgioCafiero @emile_hokayem @ForeignPolicy @AfricaACSS @CGDev @CSIS
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@abaabood @YasFarouk @londonvinjamuri
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Replying to @ComradeJihad @gmfus @Glenn_Diesen @gulf_news @GPFutures @asiatimesonline
Both states have largely continued to support the internationally recognized government in Mogadishu while maintaining limited engagement with Somaliland.@firstpost @USIPorg @fesuganda
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@fes_mena @AlbertoMiguelF5 @ChicagoCouncil @QUGulfStudies @ChathamHouse
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Replying to @ComradeJihad @zeteo_news @QUGulfStudies @George_Friedman @EyeOnAfricaF24 @AIES_austria @EUSR_Weber
Against this backdrop, #AddisAbaba also stepped up security cooperation with #Puntland, including arms shipments. @FESonline @fes_africa @KAS_africa
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@Fes_africa
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Replying to @ComradeJihad @zeteo_news @QUGulfStudies @George_Friedman @EyeOnAfricaF24 @AIES_austria @EUSR_Weber
#Ethiopia, meanwhile, deepened its economic engagement with #Puntland. @QuincyInst @LobeLog @ForeignAffairs @africaarguments
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Replying to @ComradeJihad @zeteo_news @QUGulfStudies @George_Friedman @EyeOnAfricaF24 @AIES_austria @EUSR_Weber
These operations improved counterterrorism effectiveness but also limited Mr. Mohamud’s ability to assert federal authority in #Jubaland.
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Replying to @ComradeJihad @zeteo_news @QUGulfStudies @George_Friedman @EyeOnAfricaF24 @AIES_austria @EUSR_Weber
In response, #Madobe strengthened security cooperation with #Kenya, leading to coordinated joint operations against al-Shabaab in 2025. @GulfIntlForum @GPFutures @GulfStateAnalyt @EU_ISS @BrookingsFP @ChicagoCouncil @EroComfort @BBCSomali @BBCAfrica
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Replying to @ComradeJihad @zeteo_news @QUGulfStudies @George_Friedman @EyeOnAfricaF24 @AIES_austria @EUSR_Weber
Following President Madobe’s successful military resistance against the #SomaliNationalArmy, relations between #Jubaland and #Mogadishu deteriorated further.
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Replying to @ComradeJihad @zeteo_news @QUGulfStudies @George_Friedman @EyeOnAfricaF24 @AIES_austria @EUSR_Weber
Historically, Kenya and Ethiopia have supported a weak central government in #Somalia. This strategy aims to prevent the resurgence of “Greater Somalia” ideology, which could motivate the Somali communities in Kenya and Ethiopia to pursue unification with Somalia.@ME_Council
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Replying to @ComradeJihad @TheAfricaReport @BBCSomali @andreas_krieg @IFRI_ @RUSI_org @Africa_Conf @h_lovatt @_hudsonc @KholoodKhair @AfricaProg @AhmedSolHoA @IISS_org
.during the inauguration of the North East State.., President Mohamud reiterated that #Somalia is a sovereign state capable of defending itself and He that the federal government rejects...measuresauthority.@MT_Afrika @AnankeGroup @GPFutures @EyeOnAfricaF24 @andreas_krieg
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@GerritKurtz
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Replying to @ComradeJihad @USIPorg @MssZeeUsman @LobeLog @ME_Council
@SAIIA_info @FWehrey @KAS_SIPODI_EA @KAS_africa @fesuganda @ElizHagedorn @QuincyInst @MiddleEastInst @MagnusGTaylor @mideasteditor @gb_decarvalho
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This approach highlights the persistent inability of successive governments in #Mogadishu to convince #Somaliland of the advantages of staying within the #Somalistate. @Africa_Conf @The_BIEA @Afrique_IFRI @emile_hokayem
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#Mogadishu by shifting #Somalia’s clan-based federal system toward a party-driven democratic system ahead of his 2026 reelection bid. @TheAfricaReport @BBCSomali @andreas_krieg @IFRI_ @RUSI_org @Africa_Conf @h_lovatt @_hudsonc @KholoodKhair @AfricaProg @AhmedSolHoA @IISS_org
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The acceptance of the .. State into #Somalia’s federal framework should be seen as part of ... larger effort to reshape the country’s federal structure through creating parallel federal states alongside #Somaliland,#Puntland and #Jubaland.@GCSF24 @ArabCenterDC @ME_Council
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